Why Bother?: Rethinking Participation in Elections and Protests

168 Pages·2018·1.211 MB·English

by  S. Erdem Aytaç, Susan C. Stokes

WhyBother?
Why do vote-suppression efforts sometimes fail? Why does police
repression of demonstrators sometimes turn localized protests into
massive,nationalmovements?Howdopoliticiansandactivistsmanip-
ulate people’s emotions to get them involved? The authors of Why
Bother?offeranewtheoryofwhypeopletakepartincollectiveaction
in politics and test it in the contexts of voting and protesting. They
develop the idea that just as there are costs of participation in poli-
tics,therearealsocostsofabstention–intrinsicandpsychologicalbut
no less real for that. That abstention can be psychically costly helps
explain real-world patterns that are anomalies for existing theories,
suchasthatsometimesincreasesincostsofparticipationarefollowed
bymoreparticipation,notless.Thebookdrawsonawealthofsurvey
data, interviews, and experimental results from a range of countries,
includingtheUnitedStates,Britain,Brazil,Sweden,andTurkey.
S.ErdemAytaçisanassistantprofessorintheDepartmentofInterna-
tionalRelationsatKoçUniversityinIstanbul,Turkey.Hereceivedhis
Ph.D.inpoliticalsciencefromYaleUniversityin2014.Aytaç’sresearch
interests lie in political behavior with a focus on democratic account-
ability and political participation. His previous work has appeared in
the Journal of Politics, Comparative Political Behavior, British Jour-
nalofPoliticalScience,PoliticalBehavior,andtheJournalofConflict
Resolution, among other journals. He is the recipient of the 2016
Young Scientist Award of Science Academy (Turkey) and the 2018
SakıpSabancıInternationalResearchAward.
Susan C. Stokes is the Tiffany and Margaret Blake Distinguished Ser-
viceProfessorofPoliticalScienceattheUniversityofChicago.Sheisa
memberoftheAmericanAcademyofArtsandSciencesandpastchair
oftheYalePoliticalScienceDepartment.SheistheauthorofMandates
and Democracy: Neoliberalism by Surprise in Latin America (Cam-
bridge)andco-authorofBrokers,Voters,andClientelism:ThePuzzle
ofDistributivePolitics(Cambridge).
CambridgeStudiesinComparativePolitics
GeneralEditors
KathleenThelenMassachusettsInstituteofTechnology
ErikWibbelsDukeUniversity
AssociateEditors
CatherineBooneLondonSchoolofEconomics
ThadDunningUniversityofCalifornia,Berkeley
AnnaGrzymala-BusseStanfordUniversity
TorbenIversenHarvardUniversity
StathisKalyvasYaleUniversity
MargaretLeviStanfordUniversity
HelenMilnerPrincetonUniversity
FrancesRosenbluthYaleUniversity
SusanStokesUniversityofChicago
TariqThachilVanderbiltUniversity
SeriesFounder
PeterLangeDukeUniversity
OtherBooksintheSeries
ChristopherAdolph,Bankers,Bureaucrats,andCentralBankPolitics:
TheMythofNeutrality
MichaelAlbertus,AutocracyandRedistribution:ThePoliticsofLandReform
SantiagoAnria,WhenMovementsBecomeParties:TheBolivianMASin
ComparativePerspective
BenW.Ansell,FromtheBallottotheBlackboard:TheRedistributive
PoliticalEconomyofEducation
BenW.Ansell,DavidJ.Samuels,InequalityandDemocratization:
AnElite-CompetitionApproach
LeonardoR.Arriola,Multi-EthnicCoalitionsinAfrica:Business
FinancingofOppositionElectionCampaigns
DavidAusten-Smith,JeffryA.Frieden,MiriamA.Golden,KarlOveMoene,and
AdamPrzeworski,eds.,SelectedWorksofMichaelWallerstein:ThePolitical
EconomyofInequality,Unions,andSocialDemocracy
AndyBaker,TheMarketandtheMassesinLatinAmerica:PolicyReformand
ConsumptioninLiberalizingEconomies
Continuedaftertheindex
Why Bother?
Rethinking Participation in Elections
and Protests
S. ERDEM AYTAÇ
KoçUniversity
SUSAN C. STOKES
UniversityofChicago
UniversityPrintingHouse,CambridgeCB28BS,UnitedKingdom
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ItfurtherstheUniversity’smissionbydisseminatingknowledgeinthepursuitof
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www.cambridge.org
Informationonthistitle:www.cambridge.org/9781108475228
DOI:10.1017/9781108690416
(cid:2)c S.ErdemAytaçandSusanC.Stokes2019
Thispublicationisincopyright.Subjecttostatutoryexception
andtotheprovisionsofrelevantcollectivelicensingagreements,
noreproductionofanypartmaytakeplacewithoutthewritten
permissionofCambridgeUniversityPress.
Firstpublished2019
PrintedintheUnitedStatesofAmericabySheridanBooks,Inc.
AcataloguerecordforthispublicationisavailablefromtheBritishLibrary.
LibraryofCongressCataloging-in-PublicationData
Names:Aytaç,S.Erdem,1980–author.|Stokes,SusanCarol,author.
Title:Whybother?:rethinkingparticipationinelectionsandprotests/
S.ErdemAytaç,KoçUniversity,SusanC.Stokes,UniversityofChicago.
Description:NewYork:CambridgeUniversityPress,[2018]|
Series:Cambridgestudiesincomparativepolitics|
Includesbibliographicalreferencesandindex.
Identifiers:LCCN2018035529|ISBN9781108475228
Subjects:LCSH:Politicalparticipation.|Voterturnout.|Voting–Abstention.|
Votingresearch.|Protestmovements–Politicalaspects.
Classification:LCCJF799.A932018|DDC323/.042–dc23
LCrecordavailableathttps://lccn.loc.gov/2018035529
ISBN978-1-108-47522-8Hardback
ISBN978-1-108-46594-6Paperback
CambridgeUniversityPresshasnoresponsibilityforthepersistenceoraccuracyof
URLSforexternalorthird-partyinternetwebsitesreferredtointhispublication
anddoesnotguaranteethatanycontentonsuchwebsitesis,orwillremain,
accurateorappropriate.
Erdem: For my family.
Susan: For Lewyn and Arlo, future participants.

Contents
ListofFigures pageviii
ListofTables ix
PrefaceandAcknowledgments xi
1 Introduction:RethinkingPoliticalParticipation 1
2 TheoriesofVoterParticipation:AReviewandaNewApproach 13
3 TestingtheCostlyAbstentionTheoryofTurnout 37
4 TheoriesofProtestParticipation:AReviewandaNewApproach 68
5 TestingtheCostlyAbstentionTheoryofProtestParticipation 83
6 TheEmotionalOriginsofCollectiveAction 103
7 Conclusions:Criticisms,Extensions,andDemocraticTheory 128
Bibliography 137
Index 150
vii
Figures
3.1 Turnout in the US presidential and midterm congressional
elections,1960–2016 page39
3.2 Respondents’assessmentsofchancesforapresidentialtieinthe
UnitedStates 43
3.3 Distribution of responses to the outcome question in the
Turnoutexperiment 49
3.4 Theaveragelikelihoodofvotingacrosstreatmentconditionsin
theTurnoutexperiment 50
3.5 Negative affect emotions across experimental groups in the
Abstentionexperiment 55
3.6 Negative affect emotions across experimental groups in the
(Important,Close)electiongroupoftheAbstentionexperiment 56
3.7 The average likelihood of voting across treatment conditions,
unweightedandweighteddata 66
3.8 Negative affect emotions across experimental groups in the
Abstentionexperiment,weighteddata 67
4.1 The impact of repression on the costs of abstention and
participation 81
6.1 Bounce-backeffectamongtheunemployedintheUnitedStates 105
6.2 Unemploymentrateandproportionofeconomy-relatedwords
inpresidentialchallengers’ nominationacceptance speeches in
theUnitedStates,1976–2016 107
6.3 Istanbul2015survey:imagesusedintheRepressiontreatment 116
viii
Tables
2.1 CorrelatesofturnoutinBritainandSweden–BESandSNES
2010 page15
3.1 SetupoftheTurnoutexperiment 49
3.2 TreatmentvignettesintheAbstentionexperiment 53
3.3 ExperimentalconditionsandvignettesintheDutyexperiment 58
3.4 ManipulationchecksfortheDutyexperiment 59
3.5 AveragetreatmenteffectsintheDutyexperiment 60
3.6 Viewsoncivicdutyversusdutytoabstain 61
3.7 Turnout among the majority and minority groups in the
Groupturnoutexperiment 63
3.8 Turnout, Abstention, and Group turnout experiments –
Sampledescriptives 65
3.9 Dutyexperiment–sampledescriptives 65
5.1 DatasourcesinTurkey,Brazil,andUkraine 86
5.2 Protesters’goalsaccordingtoparticipantsandnonparticipants,
Istanbul 88
5.3 Protesters’goalsaccordingtoparticipantsandnonparticipants,
SãoPaulo 89
5.4 Protesters’motivations,Istanbul 90
5.5 Reasonsforjoiningtheprotests,SãoPaulo 91
5.6 Reasonsforjoiningtheprotests,Kiev 91
5.7 Istanbul:averagetreatmenteffects 100
5.8 SãoPaulo:averagetreatmenteffects 101
5.9 Kiev:averagetreatmenteffects 102
6.1 Experimental treatment vignettes in the Unemployment
experiment 108
6.2 AveragetreatmenteffectsintheUnemploymentexperiment 110
6.3 Beingangryabouttheeconomyandturnout—BES2010 112
6.4 BeingangryaboutimmigrationorthewarinAfghanistanand
turnout—BES2010 113
ix
x ListofTables
6.5 Beingangryaboutpartiesandturnout—SNES2010 114
6.6 Outcome questions in the Istanbul 2015 Repression
experiment:potentialmediators 118
6.7 Averagetreatmenteffectsonwillingnesstoprotest 119
6.8 Averagetreatmenteffectsonpotentialmediators 120
6.9 Mediation analysis of the impact of repression on protest
participation 123
6.10 Istanbul 2015 Repression experiment: respondent
characteristics 126