Well-to-wheels energy use and greenhouse gas emissions analysis of plug-in hybrid electric vehicles

154 Pages·2010·2.65 MB·English

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CONTENTS

ACKNOWLEDGMENTS ........................................................................................................ xi

NOTATION .............................................................................................................................. xiii

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY ...................................................................................................... 1

ES.1 CD Operation of Gasoline PHEVs and BEVs ......................................................... 2
ES.1.1 Petroleum Displacement ............................................................................. 2
ES.1.2 GHG Emissions .......................................................................................... 3
ES.1.3 Electric Range of PHEVs and BEVs in Real-World Driving ..................... 4
ES.2 Combined CD and CS Operation of PHEVs ........................................................... 4
ES.2.1 Petroleum Displacement ............................................................................. 4
ES.2.2 GHG Emissions .......................................................................................... 5

1 INTRODUCTION ............................................................................................................. 7

1.1 Previous Studies ....................................................................................................... 7
1.2 Analysis Overview ................................................................................................... 8
1.3 Report Organization ................................................................................................. 11

2 FUEL AND ELECTRICITY CONSUMPTION BY PHEVs ........................................... 13

2.1 PSAT Overview ....................................................................................................... 13
2.1.1 Objectives ................................................................................................... 13
2.1.2 Principles..................................................................................................... 13
2.2 Process Description .................................................................................................. 14
2.3 Component Assumptions ......................................................................................... 15
2.3.1 Engines and Storage .................................................................................... 15
2.3.2 Transmission ............................................................................................... 18
2.4 Vehicle ..................................................................................................................... 19
2.4.1 Vehicle Powertrain Assumptions ................................................................ 20
2.4.2 Vehicle Architecture Selection ................................................................... 20
2.4.3 Configuration Selection .............................................................................. 23
2.5 Vehicle Sizing Process ............................................................................................. 23
2.6 Vehicle Sizing Results ............................................................................................. 24

3 ON-ROAD ADJUSTMENT OF FUEL ECONOMY AND
ELECTRICITY CONSUMPTION ................................................................................... 31

3.1 Fuel Economy Adjustment for On-Road Performance ............................................ 31
3.1.1 Background ................................................................................................. 31
3.1.2 Conventional ICEVs and HEVs .................................................................. 34
3.1.3 Hydrogen FCVs .......................................................................................... 34
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CONTENTS (CONT.)

3.1.4 Series PHEV30 and 40 and BEVs .............................................................. 34
3.1.5 Power-Split PHEV10 and 20 ...................................................................... 35
3.2 Battery Charging Losses for PHEVs and BEVs ...................................................... 37
3.3 Actual ―On-Road‖ Miles Driven In CD Mode ........................................................ 40
3.4 Vehicle Miles Traveled Split by CD Versus CS Operation ..................................... 41

4 PHEV POPULATION AND ELECTRIC LOAD PROFILE ........................................... 45

4.1 Data Sources ............................................................................................................ 45
4.2 PHEV Population ..................................................................................................... 46
4.3 PHEV Charging Scenarios ....................................................................................... 48
4.4 Summary of PHEV Population and Electric Load Analysis ................................... 52

5 ELECTRIC POWER SYSTEM DISPATCH .................................................................... 53

5.1 Modeling Technique and Methodology ................................................................... 53
5.1.1 NE and NY ISOs ......................................................................................... 53
5.1.2 WECC ......................................................................................................... 55
5.1.3 State of Illinois ............................................................................................ 57
5.2 Data Collection and Preparation .............................................................................. 59
5.2.1 Inventory of Existing and Proposed Power Plants ...................................... 59
5.2.2 Historical Load Data ................................................................................... 60
5.2.3 Load Projections ......................................................................................... 60
5.2.4 Fuel Price Projections ................................................................................. 60
5.2.5 Expansion Candidate Technology Data ...................................................... 60
5.2.6 Wind and Solar Data ................................................................................... 60
5.3 Treatment of Renewable Generation ....................................................................... 61
5.3.1 NE and NY ISOs ......................................................................................... 61
5.3.2 WECC ......................................................................................................... 62
5.3.3 State of Illinois ............................................................................................ 62
5.4 Developing Load Profiles ........................................................................................ 63
5.4.1 NE and NY ISOs ......................................................................................... 63
5.4.2 WECC ......................................................................................................... 64
5.4.3 State of Illinois ............................................................................................ 66
5.4.4 Forecasting PHEV Loads ............................................................................ 66
5.5 Capacity Expansion Modeling ................................................................................. 69
5.6 Dispatch Modeling ................................................................................................... 71
5.6.1 NE and NY ISOs ......................................................................................... 71
5.6.2 WECC ......................................................................................................... 74
5.6.3 State of Illinois ............................................................................................ 76
5.7 Simulation Results ................................................................................................... 79
5.7.1 NE ISO ........................................................................................................ 79
5.7.2 NY ISO ....................................................................................................... 81
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CONTENTS (CONT.)

5.7.3 WECC ......................................................................................................... 84
5.7.4 State of Illinois ............................................................................................ 88
5.8 Conclusions .............................................................................................................. 91

6 GREET WTW ENERGY USE AND GHG EMISSIONS ................................................ 93

6.1 Introduction .............................................................................................................. 93
6.2 Well-To-Wheels Simulation Methodology .............................................................. 98
6.3 WTW Simulation Results ........................................................................................ 99

7 CONCLUSIONS ............................................................................................................... 115

7.1 CD Operation of Gasoline PHEVs and BEVs ......................................................... 115
7.1.1 Petroleum Displacement ............................................................................. 115
7.1.2 GHG Emissions .......................................................................................... 115
7.1.3 Electric Range of PHEVs and BEVs in Real-World Driving ..................... 116
7.2 Combined CD and CS Operation of PHEVs ........................................................... 116
7.2.1 Petroleum Displacement ............................................................................. 116
7.2.2 GHG Emissions .......................................................................................... 117

8 IMPLICATIONS FOR FUTURE ANALYSIS ................................................................. 119

9 REFERENCES .................................................................................................................. 125

APPENDIX 1: VEHICLE DESCRIPTIONS ........................................................................... 127

FIGURES

ES.1 WTW Petroleum Use and GHG Emissions for CD Operation of Gasoline
PHEVs and BEVs Compared with Baseline Gasoline ICEVs and Regular
Gasoline HEVs ............................................................................................................... 3

ES.2 WTW Petroleum Use and GHG Emissions for Combined CD and CS
Operation of PHEVs Compared with Baseline Gasoline ICEVs ................................... 5

2.1 Bond Graph Formalism.................................................................................................... 13

2.2 Simulink Vehicle Model Example ................................................................................... 14

2.3 Uncertainty Process ......................................................................................................... 15

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FIGURES (CONT.)

2.4 Fuel Cell System Efficiency Versus Fuel Cell System Power from the System Map ..... 16

2.5 Parallel HEV .................................................................................................................... 21

2.6 Series HEV....................................................................................................................... 21

2.7 Power-Split HEV ............................................................................................................. 23

2.8 Process for Sizing PHEV Components ............................................................................ 24

2.9 Engine Power for Gasoline Powertrains .......................................................................... 25

2.10 Electric Machine Power for Gasoline HEVs and PHEVs ............................................... 26

2.11 Fuel Cell Power for Hydrogen Vehicles .......................................................................... 26

2.12 Battery Power for Gasoline HEVs and PHEVs ............................................................... 27

2.13 Usable Battery Energy for PHEV Midsize Vehicle with Gasoline Engine ..................... 27

2.14 Usable Battery Energy for PHEV Midsize Vehicle with Fuel Cell ................................. 28

2.15 Vehicle Mass .................................................................................................................... 28

3.1 On-Road Adjustment Factor for Laboratory Fuel Economy Based on EPA’s
MPG-Based Formulas ..................................................................................................... 33

3.2 On-Road Adjustments of Laboratory Fuel and Electricity Consumption ....................... 36

3.3 Electricity and Fuel Consumption in CD Operation of PHEVs and BEVs ..................... 38

3.4 Electricity and Fuel Consumption in CD and CS Operation of PHEVs .......................... 39

3.5 CD VMT on UDDS from PSAT Simulations.................................................................. 40

3.6 CD VMT on HWFET from PSAT Simulations ............................................................... 41

3.7 Adjusted CD VMT ........................................................................................................... 41

3.8 Percentage of Daily VMT Available for Substitution by a PHEV in CD Mode ............. 43

4.1 PHEV Populations by Simulated Utility Service Area in 2020 ....................................... 48
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FIGURES (CONT.)

4.2 Distribution of Vehicles by Last Trip Ending Time for Large MSAs in California........ 49

4.3 Distribution of Vehicles by Last Trip Ending Time for Large MSAs in California,
January–March ................................................................................................................ 50

4.4 Distribution of Vehicles by Last Trip Ending Time for Large MSAs in California,
April–June ....................................................................................................................... 50

4.5 Distribution of Vehicles by Last Trip Ending Time for Large MSAs in California,
July–September ............................................................................................................... 51

4.6 Distribution of Vehicles by Last Trip Ending Time for Large MSAs in California,
October–December ......................................................................................................... 51

5.1 WECC Network Topology .............................................................................................. 56

5.2 State of Illinois Network Topology ................................................................................. 58

5.3 Hydropower Plant Operations .......................................................................................... 61

5.4 Developing an Hourly Load Profile for the NE and NY ISOs ........................................ 64

5.5 Developing Hourly Load Profiles for Nodes in WECC .................................................. 65

5.6 Typical Hourly Charging Pattern for All Three PHEV Charging Scenarios ................... 70

5.7 Creating a Thermal Unit Inventory for the NE and NY ISOs ......................................... 72

5.8 Example for Results of Maintenance Scheduling Routine .............................................. 74

6.1 WTW Total Energy Use for PHEV10 and PHEV40 for Different
Fuel/Vehicle Systems ..................................................................................................... 101

6.2 WTW Fossil Energy Use for PHEV10 and PHEV40 for Different
Fuel/Vehicle Systems ..................................................................................................... 101

6.3 WTW Petroleum Energy Use for PHEV10 and PHEV40 for Different
Fuel/Vehicle Systems ..................................................................................................... 102

6.4 WTW GHG Emissions for PHEV10 and PHEV40 for Different
Fuel/Vehicle Systems ..................................................................................................... 102

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FIGURES (CONT.)

6.5 WTW GHG Emissions for HEV and CD Operation of PHEV40 with
Different Charging Scenarios in the WECC Region ...................................................... 103

6.6 WTW GHG Emissions for CD Operation of PHEV40 with
Unconstrained Charging in Different Regions ............................................................... 104

6.7 WTW Petroleum Energy Use for Combined CD and CS Operations of
PHEVs as a Function of Rated AER .............................................................................. 105

6.8 WTW GHG Emissions for Combined CD and CS Operations of PHEVs in
WECC as a Function of Rated AER ............................................................................... 105

6.9 WTW GHG Emissions for Combined CD and CS Operations of PHEVs in
IL as a Function of Rated AER ....................................................................................... 106

6.10 WTW GHG Emissions for Combined CD and CS Operations of PHEVs as a
Function of Rated AER Using the U.S. Average Generation Mix ................................. 107

6.11 WTW GHG Emissions for Combined CD and CS Operations of PHEVs as
a Function of Rated AER Using the Northeastern U.S. Average Generation Mix......... 107

6.12 WTW GHG Emissions for Combined CD and CS Operations of PHEVs as a
Function of Rated AER Using the CA Average Generation Mix ................................... 108

6.13 WTW Petroleum Use and GHG Emissions for CD Operation of PHEVs ...................... 109

6.14 WTW Petroleum Use and GHG Emissions for Combined CD and
CS Operation of PHEVs ................................................................................................. 110

6.15 WTW Petroleum Use and GHG Emissions for CD Operation of Gasoline Vehicles .... 113

TABLES

1.1 Vehicle Technologies, Fuels, and Feedstock Sources .................................................... 9

2.1 Main Engine Assumptions .............................................................................................. 16

2.2 Main Fuel Cell Assumptions .......................................................................................... 17

2.3 Main Hydrogen Storage Assumptions ............................................................................ 17

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