Urban Housing Patterns in a Tide of Change: Spatial Structure and Residential Property Values in Budapest in a Comparative Perspective - Volume 08 Sustainable Urban Areas

156 Pages·2006·2.38 MB·English

by  T. Kauko

U S U S T A I N A B L E U R B A N A R E A S
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Delft Centre for Sustainable Urban Areas carries out research in the field of the s

built environment and is one of the multidisciplinary research centres at TU Delft. in

The Delft Research Centres bundle TU Delft’s excellent research and provide a

integrated solutions for today’s and tomorrow’s problems in society. ti Urban housing patterns
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OTB Research Institute for Housing, Urban and Mobility Studies and the Faculties e

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of Architecture, Technology, Policy and Management and Civil Engineering and f in a tide of change

Geosciences participate in this Delft Research Centre. ch
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The development of the housing markets in different European metropolitan areas Spatial structure and residential
is of high interest for the urban development and the real estate markets, which
are moving towards globalisation. The Budapest housing market is an ideal property values in Budapest
candidate for scrutiny from an institutional and evolutionary perspective due to
its fragmented nature: different house types, age categories, price levels and in a comparative perspective
micro-locations are found side by side. This is a case ‘in between’ Eastern and
Western settings, with its own distinctive path dependence – its development
pattern does not resemble any other system. The study comprises an innovative
economic analysis of the Budapest housing market structure. Applying the
self-organising map and the learning vector quantification sheds light on how
physical and socio-demographic characteristics, price and regulation are related in
this market. Further analysis is carried out using the analytical hierarchy process
together with in-depth interviews of experts and a case study of urban renewal in
two neighbourhoods using market data. The results are compared with those of a
prior study from Helsinki and Amsterdam, as well as with more general theory
literature. The results suggest a great difficulty in relating the empirical findings
from Budapest to mainstream theory of housing markets.
Tom Kauko
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DELFT UNIVERSITY PRESS IS
AN IMPRINT OF IOS PRESS
Delft Centre for Sustainable Urban Areas

Urban housing patterns
in a tide of change
Spatial structure and residential property values
in Budapest in a comparative perspective
Sustainable Urban Areas 8
Editorial Committee
Prof. dr. P. Glasbergen (Utrecht University)
Prof. dr. P. Hooimeijer (Utrecht University)
Prof. ir. G.J. Maas (Technische Universiteit Eindhoven)
Prof. dr. N.J.M. Nelissen (University of Nijmegen)
Prof. dr. P. Nijkamp (Vrije Universiteit)
Prof. dr. H.F.L.K. Ottens (Utrecht University)
Prof. dr. ir. J. van der Schaar (Universiteit van Amsterdam)
Prof. dr. J. van Weesep (Utrecht University)
Urban housing patterns
in a tide of change
Spatial structure and residential property values
in Budapest in a comparative perspective
Tom Kauko
IOS Press
The series Sustainable Urban Areas
is published by IOS Press under the imprint Delft University Press
Publisher
IOS Press BV
Nieuwe Hemweg 6b
1013 BG Amsterdam
The Netherlands
Fax [phone]
e-mail: [email protected]
Sustainable Urban Areas are edited by
Delft Centre for Sustainable Urban Areas
c/o OTB Research Institute for Housing, Urban and Mobility Studies
Delft University of Technology
Jaffalaan 9
2628 BX Delft
The Netherlands
Phone [phone]
Fax [phone]
E-mail [email protected]
http://www.otb.tudelft.nl
The author wishes to acknowledge the financial assistance of the Dutch
government through the Habiforum Program Innovative Land Use and
Delft University of Technology through the Delft Centre for Sustainable Urban
Areas.
Design: Cyril Strijdonk Ontwerpburo, Gaanderen
Printed in the Netherlands by Haveka, Alblasserdam
ISSN 1574-6410; 8
ISBN 1-58603-679-3
NUGI 755
Subject headings: Budapest, housing markets, spatial features, segmentation
Legal Notice
The publisher is not responsible for the use which might be made of the
following information.
© Copyright 2006 by OTB Research Institute for Housing, Urban and Mobil-
ity Studies. No part of this book may be reproduced in any form by print,
photoprint, microfilm or any other means, without written permission from
the copyrightholder.
Preface
This book forms the third part in a trilogy, and thereby completes the compa-
rative research project of OTB Research Institute of Housing, Urban and Mobi-
lity Studies which deals with spatial housing market structure, house prices
and locational preferences in European metropolitan areas. This project in
turn falls under the umbrella of the research programme Sustainable Urban
Areas at Delft University of Technology. Moreover, this Budapest part is a fol-
low-up to earlier studies on Helsinki, Amsterdam, Rotterdam and The Hague.
All too often Western researchers express uninformed, biased, stereotypical,
naïve or patronising opinions of the post-socialist context. Our Eastern col-
leagues have therefore every right to be sceptical of studies written by us – we
should stick to our own circumstances. But having said that, I really could not
resist interfering. In doing so, many local contacts have helped me acquire
unique information, and I have tried my best to avoid embarrassing mistakes
when offering an outsider’s view of this fascinating city and its housing mar-
ket.
For most of the narratives I am indebted to the Head of Department at the
Department of Urban Studies of Budapest University of Technology and Eco-
nomics, Prof. Gábor Locsmándi, with whom I had several fruitful discussions
in 2004 and 2005. Another person to whom I would like to express my grati-
tude is Gábor Soóki-Tóth, for allowing me to use the datasets, office facilities
and professional material of ECORYS Hungary, which proved to be a goldmine
for me. I would also like to thank Csilla Sárkány, György Alföldi, Dávid Valkó,
Árpád Szabó, Pál Baross, Judit Székely, Zsuzsanna Földi, Attila Fürstand and
Prof. Zoltán Kovács for providing their valuable expertise for this project. I
remain, of course, solely responsible for any possible misunderstandings and
errors in the text. Lastly, I am grateful to OTB for allowing me to spend enou-
gh time in Budapest to enable me to process the material this thoroughly, and
for allowing me to disseminate the results in international conferences.
Tom Kauko, Delft, May 2006

Contents
1 Introduction . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1
2 The methodology for analysis of spatial housing market
structure . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5
2.1 The generic literature evaluating the urban housing
market structure . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5
2.2 Empirical modelling approach applied in this study. . . . . . . . 8
3 An inventory of the Budapest housing market . . . . . . . . . . . 15
3.1 Housing in Budapest – a general background. . . . . . . . . . . . . 15
3.2 Distributional and spatial consequences of the transition. . 20
3.3 Housing market processes . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 25
3.4 Urban renewal areas of districts IX and VIII. . . . . . . . . . . . . . 30
3.5 Preconditions for statistical research . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 37
4 Classification of the Budapest housing market structure . . 41
4.1 Classification using individual data . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 41
4.2 Classification using aggregated data. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 50
4.3 Conclusions of the classification. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 54
5 Analysis of the dynamics of two selected
neighbourhoods. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 55
5.1 Data, setup and expectations. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 55
5.2 The ‘quasi-dynamic’ results and their interpretation. . . . . . 59
6 E xpert elicited residential location quality profiles for
the inner Pest market . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 71
6.1 The aim of the interviews of experts. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 71
6.2 History of the development . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 72
6.3 The results of the semi-structured interviews using
the AHP . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 74
6.4 Geographical differences between micro-locations and
densities . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 79
6.5 Conclusions from the expert interviews. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 81
7 Case study evidence of urban regeneration and house
prices. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 83
7.1 The purpose of the case study . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 83
7.2 Prospects for urban regeneration in Budapest. . . . . . . . . . . . 85
7.3 Regeneration (intentions) and house price development
in the target areas . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 86
7.4 Summary of the case study and discussion . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 90
8 Concluding discussion . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 93
8.1 Summary. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 93
8.2 Comparison with prior cases: Helsinki and Amsterdam . . . 97
8.3 Some implications for urban theorising. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 103
References. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 111
Appendix 1 T he approach based on the Kohonen Map. . . . . . . . . . . . . . 123
Appendix 1A Feature maps – district label data . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 125
Appendix 1B Feature maps – street label data. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 129
Appendix 1C Feature maps – including district variables . . . . . . . . . . . . . 133
Appendix 2 Modelling of expert judgements using the AHP . . . . . . . . . 137
Appendix 3 Historical overview of planning processes in Hungary
and urban renewal in Budapest. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 141