True Odds : How Risk Affects Your Everyday Life

760 Pages·1996·1.41 MB·English

by  James Walsh

True Odds : How Risk Affects Your
title:
Everyday Life
author: Walsh, James.
publisher: Silver Lake Publishing
isbn10 | asin: 1563431149
print isbn13: 9781563431142
ebook isbn13: 9780585033297
language: English
Risk assessment, Risk perception, Risk
subject
management.
publication date: 1996
lcc: HM256.W35 1996eb
ddc: 302/.12
Risk assessment, Risk perception, Risk
subject:
management.
True Odds
How risk affects your everyday life
by James Walsh
Silver Lake Publishing
True Odds
How risk affects your everday life
First edition, second printing, 1998
Copyright © 1998 by Silver Lake Publishing
For a list of other publications or for more information, please call
[phone].
All rights reserved. No part of this book may be reproduced, stored in
a retrieval system or transcribed in any form or by any means
(electronic, mechanical, photocopy, recording or otherwise) without
the prior written permission of Silver Lake Publishing.
Library of Congress Catalogue Number: 95-079500
Walsh, James
True Odds
How risk affects your everyday life.
Includes index.
Pages: 401
ISBN: 1-56343-114-9
Printed in the United States of America.
Acknowledgments
Most books about the role of risk in everyday life are either dense
technical volumes or daffy oversimplifications. My goal in this book
has been to apply the complex tools of risk assessment and
management to ordinary issues that we all face.
As a result, True Odds was a big projectboth in terms of information-
gathering and analysis. I have many people to thank for their help.
The staff at Merritt Publishing has been hugely helpful, as always.
Luisa Beltran, Amy Gordon, Pat Sheppard and Ericka Weeks all did
reporting that made the technical detail of the book possible. Cynthia
Chaillie, John Hartnett and Linda Lagerstrom all offered useful
editorial suggestions. Simone Hirzel and Ginger McKelvey have
made the edit and production process run smoothly. Kathie Baumoel
helped put together the final package.
There have been so many people who've offered facts or insight that I
can't name them all here. I've tried to credit everyone appropriately in
the course of the book.
Specifically, I have to thank John Graham of Harvard University, Sam
Peltzman of the University of Chicago and John Stossel of ABC News
for reading a draft version of the book and offering their thoughts.
Finally, I have to thank James MacKinnon Walsh. His arrival started
this whole process.
James Walsh
November, 1995

Contents
Introduction: The nature of risk
Part 1: How information is gathered
Chapter 1: Who's most likely to contract AIDS 1
Chapter 2: New York City is safer than Tallahassee, 21
Florida
Chapter 3: Cancermania 65
Chapter 4: The dangers of old age 91
Part 2: How results are analyzed
Chapter 5: Cellular phones and brain cancer 113
Chapter 6: The shortest risk between two points 133
Chapter 7: Pensions need more than compounded interest 157
Chapter 8: Workplace safety means not being shot by 179
your ex
Part 3: How analysis is interpreted
Chapter 9: Fanning secondhand smoke 199
Chapter 10: Air bags and anti-lock brakes cause accidents 221
Chapter 11: The moral hazard of buying insurance 237
Chapter 12: Alar...an all-time low in misinformation 259
Part 4: How response is influenced
Chapter 13: Business risk, investments and game theory 285
Chapter 14: Ebolathe uncoming plague 303
Chapter 15: The odds that you are what you eat 321
Chapter 16: Lotteries are a tax on the stupid 341
Conclusion: The politics of risk 365
Bibliography 377
Index 381

Page 1
Introduction
The Nature of Risk
The origin of this book traces back to a personal experience.
In early 1994, my wife and I were expecting our second child. We'd
been members of a big, California-based health maintenance
organization for a short time and had some hesitations about the level
of attention she would receive from an HMO during a pregnancy.
But my wife was healthy and our first childa daughterhad been born
healthy and happy, with no problems. So, we figured things would go
smoothly.
A few months into the pregnancy, we got some disturbing news. A
routine ultrasound scan of the baby indicated that its kidneys were
slightly enlarged. Dilated was the technical word.
My wife was referred to the HMO's critical pregnancy unit, where a
second ultrasound was done. A few days later, we went in to meet
with one of the doctors on the critical pregnancy staff.
The silver-haired woman looked nervous as she told us that the staff
was concerned because dilation in the kidneys could mean a number
of things.
It could simply mean a slight physical problemthe valve between the
kidneys and bladder wasn't closing all the way and urine was
Page 2
backing up. This condition posed a slight risk of infection, but nothing
dire. It would probably clear up by itself.
It could also mean the child had Down's syndrome, a genetic
condition that includes mental retardation and short life expectancy.
Specifically, the doctor said that dilated kidneys reflected an elevated
rate of incidence of Down's syndrome. While she couldn't recommend
a course of actionthe HMO's policies prohibited thatone course of
action would be to perform an amniocentesis to determine for certain
whether the child had Down's syndrome.
She suggested that amniocentesis was the safest response. To us, it
seemed dangerous.
Amniocentesis is a test in which doctors extract a small amount of
amniotic fluid from a pregnant woman's womb. The fluid can then be
tested to determine the genetic condition and gender of the child. The
test is commonly given to pregnant women older than 35, because
their children are generally more susceptible to genetic problems. My
wife was just 30, though, and not part of the normal "amnio" risk
profile.
We hadn't intended to have an amnio because, about two percent of
the time, the test induces miscarriage.
So we had to get some more information and do some thinking.
Most of all, we had questions. What exactly did the doctor mean when
she said the dilated kidneys reflected an increased chance of Down's
syndrome? Were dilated kidneys a symptom of the condition? She
hesitated to say anything that predicted anything.
We found out that the answer was no. The connection was correlative.
That meant medical experts didn't think there was a direct
symptomatic link between the two conditionsinstead, the condition
that causes Down's syndrome seems also to cause kidney dilation.