Transforming Socialist Economies: Lessons for Cuba and Beyond

254 Pages·2005·4.34 MB·English

by  Shahid Javed Burki, Daniel P. Erikson (eds.)

Transforming Socialist Economies
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Transforming Socialist
Economies
Lessons for Cuba and Beyond
Edited by
Shahid Javed Burki
EMP Financial Advisors
and
Daniel P. Erikson
Inter-American Dialogue
Editorial matter and selection © Shahid Javed Burki and Daniel P. Erikson 2005
Chapters © contributors 2005
Softcover reprint of the hardcover 1st edition 2005 978-1-4039-3662-2
All rights reserved. No reproduction, copy or transmission of this
publication may be made without written permission.
No paragraph of this publication may be reproduced, copied or transmitted
save with written permission or in accordance with the provisions of the
Copyright, Designs and Patents Act 1988, or under the terms of any licence
permitting limited copying issued by the Copyright Licensing Agency, 90
Tottenham Court Road, London W1T 4LP.
Any person who does any unauthorised act in relation to this publication
may be liable to criminal prosecution and civil claims for damages.
The authors have asserted their rights to be identified as the authors of this work
in accordance with the Copyright, Designs and
Patents Act 1988.
First published 2005 by
PALGRAVE MACMILLAN
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175 Fifth Avenue, New York, N. Y. 10010
Companies and representatives throughout the world
PALGRAVE MACMILLAN is the global academic imprint of the Palgrave
Macmillan division of St. Martin’s Press, LLC and of Palgrave Macmillan Ltd.
Macmillan® is a registered trademark in the United States, United Kingdom
and other countries. Palgrave is a registered trademark in the European
Union and other countries.
ISBN 978-1-349-51881-4 ISBN 978-0-230-52259-6 (eBook)
DOI 10.1057/9780230522596
This book is printed on paper suitable for recycling and made from fully
managed and sustained forest sources.
A catalogue record for this book is available from the British Library.
Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data
Transforming socialist economies : lessons for Cuba and beyond / edited by
Shahid Javed Burki and Daniel P. Erikson.
p. cm.
Includes bibliographical references and index.
1. Communist countries–Economic policy. 2. Former communist
countries–Economic policy. 3. Former communist countries–Economic conditions.
4. Post-communism–Economic aspects. 5. Cuba–Economic policy. I. Burki, Shahid
Javed. II. Erikson, Daniel P.
HC704.T73 2004
330.9171’7–dc22
2004052328
10 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1
14 13 12 11 10 09 08 07 06 05
Contents
List of Figures vii
List of Tables viii
List of Maps ix
Notes on Contributors x
Acknowledgements xii
Foreword xiii
Part I: Introduction 1
1 Transforming the State in Socialist Economies 3
Shahid Javed Burki
2 Cuba’s Economic Transition: Successes, Deficiencies and 10
Challenges
Jorge I. Domínguez
Part II: Rush to Market 35
3 Russia’s Reforms: Lessons from the Old Patron 37
Svetlana Vtyurina
4 Eastern Europe: Different Paths, Different Results 78
Christopher A. Hartwell
5 The Struggle of the Central Asian Republics 108
Zahid Hasnain
Part III: The Gradualist Approach 141
6 China: The New Global Giant 143
Shahid Javed Burki
7 Vietnam and Cuba: Yin and Yang? 176
David O. Dapice
8 Can Cuba Bridge the Gap?: IMF and World Bank Membership 201
for Socialist Countries
Daniel P. Erikson
v
vi Contents
Part IV: Conclusion 227
9 Cuba’s Economic Future: A Dozen Comparative Lessons 229
Jorge I. Dom´ınguez and Daniel P. Erikson
Index 238
List of Figures
4.1 ‘Shock therapy’ vs gradualism, 1990–2001 80
4.2 Czech Republic: GDP growth, 1991–2001 81
4.3 Slovakia: GDP growth, 1991–2001 85
4.4 Bulgaria: annual inflation (%) 98
5.1 GDP during the transition 113
5.2 Trends in transition in Central Asia 119
5.3 CARs: comparative transition indicators, 1999 120
6.1 US–Sino relations from 1989 to the present 163
vii
List of Tables
2.1 The Cuban economy, 1985–2000 13
2.2 The Cuban economy’s recent performance, 1997–2002 13
2.3 Cuba: agricultural output per worker across farm types, 18
1999–2000
2.4 Cuba: foreign direct investment flows, 1994–2001 20
2.5 Cuba: state revenues in 2000–2 21
3.1 Russia: inflation, growth, fiscal deficit, and FDI, 1991–2002 47
3.2 Russia: growth and inflation, 1991–2002 49
3.3 Russia: exchange rate, 1991–2002 52
3.4 Russia: unemployment (%) 60
3.5 Russia: state social expenditures as percentage of GDP, 62
1992–2002
4.1 FDI per capita in Eastern Europe (US$ million) 89
5.1 CARs: economic, social and demographic features, 1998 110
5.2 The transition recession in comparative perspective 112
5.3 CARs: trends in income inequality 114
5.4 Progress in transition in Central Asia 119
6.1 World’s ten largest countries by population 146
6.2 China’s urban population as a percentage of total population 147
6.3 The world’s largest economies, 2001 148
6.4 Chinese and US economies, 2001 149
6.5 Brazil, China, India and the United States: trade 150
6.6 Global pool of skilled workers (number of natural science 153
and engineering college graduates)
6.7 China’s real GDP growth 164
6.8 China’s social transformation 166
6.9 The world’s largest economies 170
6.10 Human development in Cuba and other Latin American 173
countries
7.1 Vietnam and Cuba since 1989 179
7.2 Vietnam: regional trends in per capita state, foreign, and 189
private domestic investments
viii
List of Maps
1 Cuba 11
2 Russia 38
3 Eastern Europe 79
4 The Central Asian Republics 109
5 China 144
6 Vietnam 177
ix