Table Of Content1
For other titles in the Wiley Finance series
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2
Trading Economics
A Guide to Economic Statistics
for Practitioners and Students
Trevor Williams
Victoria Turton
3
This edition first published 2014
© 2014 Trevor Williams and Victoria Turton
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John Wiley & Sons Ltd, The Atrium, Southern Gate, Chichester, West Sussex,
PO19 8SQ, United Kingdom
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Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data
4
Williams, Trevor, 1957–
Trading economics : a guide to economic statistics for practitioners &
students / Trevor Williams, Victoria Turton.—1
pages cm.—(The Wiley finance series)
Includes bibliographical references and index.
ISBN 978-1-118-76641-5 (hardback)—ISBN 978-1-118-76631-6 (ebk)—
ISBN 978-1-118-76638-5 (ebk)—ISBN 978-1-118-76629-3 (ebk) 1. Finance—
Statistics. 2. Money market—Handbooks, manuals, etc. I. Turton, Victoria,
1974– II. Title.
HG176.5.W55 2014
330.01′5195—dc23
2014007150
A catalogue record for this book is available from the British Library.
ISBN 978-1-118-76641-5 (hardback) ISBN 978-1-118-76631-6 (ebk)
ISBN 978-1-118-76638-5 (ebk) ISBN 978-1-118-76629-3 (ebk)
Cover image: Shutterstock.com
5
CONTENTS
Acknowledgements
Introduction
Surprise Indices
Mapping a New Landscape
Note
1 Surveys
Surveys and Behavioural Economics
Types of Survey
Business Surveys
Consumer Surveys
Conclusion
Notes
2 Economic Growth
Economic Growth Through the Ages
GDP
What is GDP?
Breaking Down GDP
Why is GDP important? How is It Measured?
Index Numbers of GDP and the Price Deflators
Used in Calculating Them
Detailed Breakdown of the GDP Measures
A Market Link
Components of GDP
Conclusion
6
Notes
3 Labour Markets
Employment Trends
What has Driven the Change?
Consequences for Economic Growth
Phillips Curve Shows no Durable Trade-Off Exists
NAIRU Matters More
Employment Measures
Why We Measure Unemployment
The Nature of Unemployment
The Impact of Demographics on Labour Markets
Vacancies
Changing Labour Patterns
The UK in Comparison to Its Global Competitors
How do We Extract Value from This?
Conclusion
Notes
4 Inflation
What is Inflation?
The History of Inflation
Causes of Inflation
Earnings/Wage Inflation
Price Basket
How is Price Inflation Measured?
GDP Deflator
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Why so Many Measures of Inflation?
A Focus on the CPI and RPI
Why is Inflation Important?
Deflation
Other Measures of Inflation Targeting
How can We Extract Value from This?
Conclusion
Notes
5 Monetary Statistics
Monetary Policy and Inflation Management
The UK in a Global Context
Central Bank's Role
What About the Bank of England?
How Monetary Policy Works in the Uk
Decomposition of Money
Why does Money Supply Matter?
Why Is This Sort of Analysis Useful?
A Brief History of Monetary Targeting
How Do We Extract Value from This?
Conclusion
Notes
6 Fiscal Indicators
A Brief History of UK Fiscal Policy
Measuring Government Debt
Fiscal Policy Impact and Terminology
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The Impact of Government on Markets
Fiscal Policy and Growth
The Data We Should Consider
Fiscal Policy in Boom and Bust
Market Relevance
Bank of England Regains Regulatory Powers
What Role Does the Office for Budget
Responsibility Play in the Fiscal Policy Process?
The Monetary Policy Committee
Forward Guidance – Another Bank Innovation
The Debt Management Office's Role
Comparison of International Debt
Fiscal Targets Add Credibility to Debt Reduction
How Can We Extract Value from This?
Conclusion
Notes
7 Global Trade Statistics
What Is a Country's Balance of Payments?
Why Do We Measure the Balance of Payments?
What Does It Mean?
The Concept of the Balance of Payments
UK Is not Alone in Having a Trade Deficit
A Chronic Goods Deficit
A Chronic Services Surplus to Offset (Almost) the
Trade Deficit
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The Ever-Changing Pattern of Visible and Invisible
Trade
Balance of Payments and GDP
Shifting Trade Patterns
How Can We Extract Value from This?
Conclusion
Notes
Conclusion
Be anchored to the data flow
Some key points to take away
Note
Appendices
Appendix 1 Surveys
CBI Industrial Trends Survey
CBI Distributive Trades Survey
Notes
Appendix 2 Bank of England: Agents' Summary of
Business Conditions (January 2014)
Appendix 3 Inflation: Contributions to Change in
the 12-Month Rate
Appendix 4 Voting on Interest Rates by the
Monetary Policy Committee – 1997 to January
2014
Appendix 5 Voting on Asset Purchases Financed
with central bank reserves by the Monetary Policy
Committee – March 2009 to January 2014
10
