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1978.
continuation on ~. 451
Lectu re Notes
in Economics and
Mathematical Systems
Managing Editors: M. Beckmann and W. Krelle
286
Toward Interactive and Intelligent
Decision Support Systems
Volume 2
Proceedings of the Seventh International Conference
on Multiple Criteria Decision Making
Held at Kyoto, Japan, August 18-22, 1986
Edited by Y. Sawaragi, K. Inoue and H. Nakayama
Springer-Verlag
Berlin Heidelberg New York London Paris Tokyo
Editorial Board
H. Albach M. Beckmann (Managing Editor)
P.Dhrymes G. Fandel J. Green W. Hildenbrand W. Krelle (Managing Editor)
H.P.Kunzi K.Ritter R.Sato U.Schittko P.Schonfeld R.Selten
Managing Editors
Prof. Dr. M. Beckmann
Brown University
Providence, RI 02912, USA
Prof. Dr. W. Krelle
Institut fUr Gesellschafts-und Wirtschaftswissenschaften
der Universitat Bonn
Adenauerallee 24-42, 0-5300 Bonn, FRG
Editors
Prof. Dr. Yoshikazu Sawaragi
Japan Institute of Systems Research
clo Nippon-Italy Kyoto Kaikan
4 Ushinomiya-cho, Yoshida, Sakyo
Kyoto 606, Japan
Prof. Dr. Koichi Inoue
Kyoto University
Department of Aeronautical Engineering
Yoshida-honmachi, Sakyo
Kyoto 606, Japan
Prof. Dr. Hirotaka Nakayama
Kanan University
Department of Applied Mathematics
8-9-1 Okamoto, Higashinada
Kobe 658, Japan
ISBN-13: 978-3-540-17719-7 e-ISBN-13: 978-3-642-46609-0
001: 10.1007/978-3-642-46609-0
This work is subject to copyright. All rights are reserved, whether the whole or part of the material
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© Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg 1987
2142/3140-543210
PIEFACE
These proceedings include papers presented at the VII-th Internatio
nal Conference on Multiple Criteria Decision Making which was held in
Kyoto/Japan on August 18-22, 1986.
Multiple Criteria Decision Making (MCDM) has been a greatly import
ant subject in many practical fields, for example, in planning, design,
control and management in both private and public sectors. After remark
able developments of theory, methodology and pilot case studies in rec
ent years, it is now facing the stage of real applications and develop
ment of more sophisticated methodology as interactive intelligent decision
support systems. The conference aimed to provide a significant contribu
tion to the future of MCDM as one of total systems including human factors:
Substantial emphasis was given to knowledge engineering and cognitive sci-
ence.
The conference inherits the tradition and the style of the previous
conferences: (1) Jouy-en-Josas/France (1975), (2) Buffalo/U.S.A. (1977),
(3) Konigswinter/FRG (1978), (4) Delaware/U.S.A. (1980), (5) Mons/Belgium
(1982), (6) Cleveland/U.S.A. (1984). This time a great many Japanese com
panies provided grants for the conference. As a result, the total number
of participants was over 120, and a computer demonstration could be reali
zed on an extensive scale as well as the conference sessions. Throughout
the conference, it was observed that MCDM is making steady progress not
only in theory but also as a tool for decision support.
The proceedings are separated into two volumes:Vol. 1 includes Inter
active Decision Support Systems, Interactive Multiobjective Programming
Methods, Applications and Theory of Vector Optimization. Vol. 2 contains
Intelligent Decision Support Systems, Utility and Risk Analysis, Value
Analysis and Intensity of Preference, Hierarchy Analysis and Weighting
Methods, Incomplete Information and Group Decisions.
We believe that the proceedings provide excellent surveys, a fine
quality of original papers concerning theory, methodology and applica
tions. We hope this proceedings will contribute greatly to the develop
ment of systems science including human factors aiming towards interactive
and intelligent decision support systems in the future.
IV
The editors would like to take the opportunity to express their thanks
to the sponsors: the International Special Interest Group on Multiple Cri
teria Decision Making, the Japan Institute of Systems Research, International
Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (ilASA), Institut National de Recherche
en Informatique et en Automatique (INRlA), National Science Foundation of the
United States of America, Japan Society for the Promotion of Science, and
Japan Information Processing Development Center.
We also wish to thank other members of the National Organizing Committee:
Prof. A. Ichikawa (Tokyo Institute of Technology), Prof. S. Iwai (Kyoto Univer
sity) and Prof. Y. Nishikawa (Kyoto University) for the successful organization.
Finally, we would like to acknowledge that the conference was supported by
the grant of the Commemorative Association for the Japan World Exposition and
the Murata Science Foundation, and also by the Machinery Industry Development
Fund provided by the Japan Bicycle Promotion Association and by the guidance
of the MITI.
December 1986, in Kyoto
Yoshikazu Sawaragi
Koichi Inoue
Hirotaka Nakayama
CCIft1INTB (VOL. 2)
PART I. INTBLLIGBNT DBCISION SUPPORT SYSTBMS
An Interactive Knowledae Support System with Imperfect 1
Information: Toward a Microcomputer Implementation
of ARIADNE
A.P. Sage~ A. Goicoechea and P.B. Aiken
Object Model for a Deep Knowledae System 11
B. Ueno
A Distributed Problem Solvina Approach to Control 10
Asynchronous and Concurrent Processes
S. Kobayashi and N. Dno
A Human-Friendly Interface System for Decision Support 30
Based on Self-oraanized Multi-Layered Knowledge Structures
T. Sa7JaI'agi~ S. Iwi and O. Katai
Intelligent Decision Support for Technology Assessment 40
M. Grauer and K. F edr-a
A Framework for Choosing the Most Appropriate Discrete 56
Alternative Multiple Criteria Decision-Making Method
in Decision Support Systems and Expert Systems
V.M. Oaemoy
The Intelligent Decision Support System: Synthesis 65
of a Decision Support System and an Expert System
Y. Kuratani
A Decision-Support System for Systems Engineering and 71
Management: The SEMS Experiment at NASA
A. Goicoechea~ R.W. Netson and W. Trusako~ski
To Solve Discrete Multicriteria Decision Problems 80
Based on Logic-Based Decision Support Systems
H.L. Li
MCDM: From 'Stand-Alone' Methods to Integrated and 90
Intelligent DSS
M.T. Jetassi
Development of a Diagnosis Analysis System for Ion 100
Implanter
Y. Doi~ T. Yokohara~ M. MatBUO~ K. Arima~
N. Tachibana~ M. Yamaji and M. Katsurag~a
A Multiple Criteria Algorithm for Automatic Layout of 109
Data Flow Diagrams
K.J. Fam and T.T. Waung
VI
On the Method to Arrange and Use Expertise 119
K. HagitJara
Intellectual Distributed Processing System Development 129
S. Tamura~ I. Okataku~ T. Endo~ T. Seki and M. Arai
Japanese-English Machine Translation System Implemented 139
in the Personal Computer
T. Shiino ~ H. Iasuhara ~ M. SakarrKJto ~ and A. Tanaka
PART II. UTILITY AND RIS~ ANALYSIS
Multiattribute Utility and Derived Utility 149
J.W. Pratt
Applications of Utility Theory in Artificial Intelligence 1SS
Research
P.H. Farquhar
Portfolio Risk Aversion and Weighted~Utility Theory 162
S.H. Chelil and M.H. Mao
Expected Utility with a Threshold Function 170
I. Nakamura
Risk Management in a Hierarchical Multiobjective 180
Framework
D. Li and 1.1. Haimes
A Land Use Model for Spatial Policy Analysis and 190
Multi-Criteria Evaluation of Regional Development
Planning
K. IoshikatJa~ K. Kobayashi and S. Mun
Multiattribute Utility Modeling of Cardiac Health 200
Effects from Carbon Monoxide Exposure
L.R. KeLter and W.E. Lambert
PART III. VALUE ANALYSIS AND INTENSITY OF PREFERENCE
On a Measurable Value Function under Risk : 210
A Descriptive Model of Preferences Resolving
the Expected Utility Paradoxes
H. Tamura~ I. Mori and I. Nakamura
Intensity of Preference 220
J.C. Vansnick
Verifying Preference Separability for Additive Value 230
Functions
P .L. Iu and E. Takeda
VII
PART IV. HIERARCHY ANALYSIS AND WEIGHTING METHODS
The General Case of Dependence in Hierarchic Decision 239
Theory
T.L. Saaty
The New Dynamic Priorities Model and an Analysis of 249
China's Energy Strategy for the Future
S. Xu and B. Liu
Evaluation of Cardinal Utility Based on Weighted 257
Paired-Comparisons
K. Inoue~ T. Moriyasu and Y. Masago
Design of a Decision-Support Workstation System for 267
Hierarchical Multiobjective Inventory Control
Y. Nishika~~ J. Nomura~ K. Sa~ada and R. Nakajima
A Rationale for Additive Decomposition in Multi- 277
attribute Utility Assessment
J.S. Dyer and H.V. Ravinder
An Approach to Preference Vector Derivation Using 286
Geometric Least Square
G. Islei and A.G. Lockett
Assessing Weights by Means of Pairwise Comparisons 296
V. Belton and T. Gear
Bias in Assessment of Attribute Weights 309
M. Weber~ F. Eisenfuhr and D. von Winterfeldt
PART V. INCOMPLBTB INFORMATION
Bicriterion Decision-Making under Randomness and Worth 319
of Perfect Information
L. Duckstein~ D. Davis and J. Weber
The Perspective of Possibilistic Models in Decision 328
Making
J. Watada and H. Tanaka
An Interactive Fuzzy Satisficing Method for Multi- 338
objective Linear Fractional Programming Problems with
Fuzzy Parameters
M. Saka~a and H. Yano
Multicriteria Optimization Problems in Statistics 348
S.C. Narula and J.F. Wellington
VIII
PART VI. GROUP DECISIONS
A Prototype Selection CODllllittee Decision Analysis and 358
Support Systems. SCDAS: Theoretical Background and
Computer Implementation
A. Le&JandoIJ8ki .. S. John8on and A. Wierzbicki
Scalarization. Optimality Conditions and Group Decision 366
Making
M.Q. ring
Two Aspects of Group Decision Support System Design 373
G.E. Ker8ten
Multi-Person Decision Support with Knowledge Base 383
Systems
W. MichaloIJ8ki
Socio-Economic Interpretation of Multiple Agents 393
Decision Making by Game Theory
F. Seo
Microcomputer-Based Games for the Purposes of Environ- 403
mental Protection and Managemental Training
N. Baba
Interactive Modeling and Gaming-Simulation for Group 412
Decision Making
Y. Nakamori
Multiactor Decision Analysis for Regional Investment 422
Allocation
K. Kobaya8hi .. T. Tanino .. A.P. Wierzbicki and
M. OkW11Ul'a
APPENDICES
1. Softwares in Computer Demonstration Session 432
2. List of PartiCipants 436
3. Organization 448
4. List of Sponsors 449
CONTENTS (VOL. 1)
PART I. INTBRACTIVB DBCISION SUPPORT SYSTBKS
Towards Interactive and Intelligent Decision SUppOTt 1
Systems
1. Sawa:l'agi
Corporate Systematic Thinking and its Implementation; 10
in Retrospect of my Way
K. Kobayashi
On Effective Goal Setting 18
I.S. Chien and P.L. lu
Systems Approach to Multiple Criteria Decision Making; 28
Metaoptimum
M. Zel.eny
Symmetries in Multicriteria Optimization and their 38
Applica tion
B.A. Berezovsky and I.M. Baryshnikov
Habitual Domains Analysis: An Application to High Stake 47
Decision Problems
S. Huang
Multicriteria Comparative Analysis of Discrete 57
Al terna tives
B. G. Sl.avov and B. Mettev
Danev~
Integration of Didactics and Creativity in Interactive 65
Multiple Criteria Decision Support Systems
S.M. Borch
Autonomous Coordinability of Decentralized System 75
Considering Subsystems Failures
M. Koizumi and K. Mori
Identifying Support in Decision Support Systems 85
1. Kobashi
PART II. INTBRACTIVB KULTIOBJBCTIVE PROGRAKKING KETRODS
Analytical Survey of Procedures for Solving Multi 95
criteria Mathematical Programming Problems (MMPP)
O.I. Larichev and A.D. Nikiforov
.fethods for Constructing Interactive Procedures in 105
!ful tiobjective Optimization Problems
V.S. Mikhal.evich and V.L. Vol.kovich
