The science and politics of global climate change: a guide to the debate

202 Pages·2009·1.599 MB·English

by  Dessler, Andrew Emory;Parson, Edward A

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The Science and Politics of Global Climate Change
AGuidetotheDebate
Whyisthedebateoverclimatechangesoconfusing?Somesaythatthereisclear
evidenceofanimpendingcrisis,othersthattheevidenceforclimatechangeis
weak.Somesaythateffortstocurbgreenhousegaseswillbankruptus,others
thatwecansolvetheproblematmanageablecost.Inthesearguments,bothsides
cannotberight.Reportsinthemediaperpetuatetheconflict:theyinvariably
attempttopresentbothsidesoftheargumentinabalancedmanner.Asaresult,
itishardfornon-specialiststosortoutandevaluatethecontendingclaims.
Inthisaccessibleprimer,DesslerandParsoncombinetheirexpertisein
atmosphericscienceandpublicpolicytohelpscientists,policymakers,andthe
publicsortthroughtheconflictingclaimsintheclimate-changedebate.The
authorsexplainhowscientificandpolicydebateswork,summarizepresent
scientificknowledgeanduncertaintyaboutclimatechange,anddiscussthe
availablepolicyoptions.Alongtheway,theyexplainWHYthedebateisso
confusing.
Anyonewithaninterestinhowscienceisusedinpolicydebateswillfindthis
discussionilluminating.Thebookrequiresnospecializedknowledge,butis
accessibletoanycollege-educatedgeneralreaderwhowantstomakemoresense
oftheclimate-changedebate.Itcanalsobeusedasatextbooktoexplainthe
detailsoftheclimate-changedebate,orasaresourceforsciencestudentsor
workingscientists,toexplainhowscienceisusedinpolicydebates.
Andrew E. Dessler isanAssociateProfessorintheDepartmentof
AtmosphericSciencesatTexasA&MUniversity.HereceivedhisPh.D.in
ChemistryfromHarvardin1994.HedidpostdoctoralworkatNASA’sGoddard
SpaceFlightCenter(1994–1996)andthenspentnineyearsonthefacultyofthe
UniversityofMaryland(1996–2005).In2000,heworkedasaSeniorPolicyAnalyst
intheWhiteHouseOfficeofScienceandTechnologyPolicy,wherehe
collaboratedwithTedParson.Dessler’sacademicpublicationsincludeoneother
book:TheChemistryandPhysicsofStratosphericOzone(AcademicPress,2000).Hehas
alsopublishedextensivelyinthescientificliteratureonstratosphericozone
depletionandthephysicsofclimate.
Edward A. Parson isProfessorofLawandAssociateProfessorofNatural
ResourcesandEnvironmentattheUniversityofMichigan.Parsonholdsdegrees
inPhysicsfromtheUniversityofTorontoandinManagementSciencefromthe
UniversityofBritishColumbia,andaPh.D.inPublicPolicyfromHarvard,where
hespenttenyearsasafacultymemberattheKennedySchoolofGovernment.He
servedasleaderofthe‘EnvironmentalTrends’ProjectfortheGovernmentof
Canadaandaseditoroftheresultingbook,GoverningtheEnvironment:Persistent
Challenges,UncertainInnovations.Hismostrecentbook,ProtectingtheOzoneLayer:
ScienceandStrategy(OxfordUniversityPress,2003),receivedthe2004Haroldand
MargaretSproutAwardoftheInternationalStudiesAssociation.Parsonhas
servedontheCommitteeonHumanDimensionsofGlobalChangeofthe
NationalAcademyofSciences,andontheSynthesisTeamfortheUSNational
AssessmentofImpactsofClimateChange.Hehasworkedandconsultedfor
variousinternationalbodiesandforthegovernmentsofbothCanadaandthe
UnitedStates,includingaperiodintheWhiteHouseOfficeofScienceand
TechnologyPolicy(OSTP)wherehecollaboratedwithAndrewDessler.Hehas
researched,published,andconsultedextensivelyonissuesofenvironmental
policy,particularlyitsinternationaldimensions;thepoliticaleconomyof
regulation;theroleofscienceandtechnologyinpublicissues;andtheanalysis
ofnegotiations,collectivedecisions,andconflicts.
The Science and
Politics of Global
Climate Change
A Guide to the Debate
Andrew E. Dessler
DepartmentofAtmosphericSciences,
TexasA&MUniversity
Edward A. Parson
LawSchoolandSchoolofNatural
ResourcesandEnvironment,University
ofMichigan
  
Cambridge, New York, Melbourne, Madrid, Cape Town, Singapore, São Paulo
Cambridge University Press
TheEdinburghBuilding,Cambridge,UK
Published in the United States of America by Cambridge University Press, New York
www.cambridge.org
Information on this title: www.cambridg e.org /9780521831703
©AndrewE.DesslerandEdwardA.Parson2006
Thispublicationisincopyright.Subjecttostatutoryexceptionandtotheprovisionof
relevantcollectivelicensingagreements,noreproductionofanypartmaytakeplace
withoutthewrittenpermissionofCambridgeUniversityPress.
Firstpublishedinprintformat 2005
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Contents
Preface pagevii
1 Globalclimatechange:anewtypeofenvironmentalproblem 1
1.1 Backgroundonclimateandclimatechange 6
1.2 Backgroundonclimate-changepolicy 12
1.3 Planofthebook 16
2 Science,politics,andscienceinpolitics 18
2.1 Justificationsforaction:positivestatementsandnormative
statements 19
2.2 Howscienceworks 23
2.3 Politicsandpolicydebates 34
2.4 Whenscienceandpoliticsmeet 38
2.5 Limitingthedamage:theroleofscientificassessments 41
FurtherreadingforChapter2 45
3 Climatechange:presentscientificknowledge
anduncertainties 47
3.1 Istheclimatechanging? 47
3.2 Arehumanactivitiesresponsibleforglobalwarming? 66
3.3 Whatfuturechangescanweexpect?Predictingclimatechangeover
thetwentyfirstcentury 76
3.4 Whatwilltheimpactsofclimatechangebe? 81
3.5 Conclusions 87
FurtherreadingforChapter3 88
4 Theclimate-changepolicydebate:impactsandpotential
responses 90
4.1 Impactsandadaptation 91
4.2 Emissionsandmitigationresponses 96
v
vi Contents
4.3 Puttingittogether:balancingbenefitsandcostsofmitigationand
adaptation 117
4.4 Athirdclassofresponse:geoengineering 123
4.5 Conclusion:policychoicesunderuncertainty 124
FurtherreadingforChapter4 125
5 Thepresentimpasseandstepsforward 128
5.1 Climate-changepolitics:presentpositions 128
5.2 Climate-changepolitics:theargumentsagainstaction 131
5.3 Thepresentpolicydebate:useofscientificknowledgeand
uncertainty 135
5.4 Sowhatshouldbedone?Majorchoicesandelementsofaneffective
response 154
5.5 Conclusion 175
FurtherreadingforChapter5 177
Appendix 180
Glossary 183
References 186
Index 189
Preface
TheKyotoProtocol,thefirstinternationaltreatytolimithumancontributionsto
globalclimatechange,enteredintoforceinFebruary2005.Withthismilestone,
binding obligations to reduce the greenhouse-gas emissions that are contribut-
ingtoglobalclimatechangecameintoeffectformanyoftheworld’sindustrial
countries.
Thiseventhasalsodeepenedpre-existingdivisionsamongtheworld’snations
that have been growing for nearly a decade. The most prominent division is
betweenthemajorityofrichindustrializedcountries,ledbytheEuropeanUnion
andJapan,whichhavejoinedtheProtocol,andtheUnitedStates(joinedonlyby
Australiaamongtherichindustrializednations),whichhasrejectedtheProtocol
aswellasotherproposalsfornear-termmeasurestolimitgreenhouse-gasemis-
sions.EvenamongthenationsthathavejoinedKyoto,thereisgreatvariationinthe
seriousnessandtimelinessoftheemission-limitingmeasurestheyhaveadopted,
andconsequentlyintheirlikelihoodofachievingtherequiredreductions.
There is also a large division between the industrialized and the developing
countries.TheKyotoProtocolonlyrequiresemissioncutsbyindustrializedcoun-
tries. Neither the Protocol nor the Framework Convention on Climate Change,
an earlier treaty, provides any specific obligations for developing countries to
limit their emissions. This has emerged as one of the sharpest points of contro-
versyovertheProtocol–acontroversythatisparticularlyacutesincetheProtocol
onlycontrolsindustrialized-countryemissionsforthefive-yearperiod2008–2012.
Initspresentform,itincludesnospecificpoliciesorobligationsbeyond2012for
eitherindustrializedordevelopingcountries.WhiletheKyotoProtocolrepresents
amodestfirststeptowardaconcreteresponsetoclimatechange,therehasbeen
essentiallynoprogressinnegotiatingthelarger,longer-termchangesthatwillbe
required to slow, stop, or reverse any human-induced climate changes that are
occurring.
Asthesepoliticaldivisionshavegrownsharper,publicargumentsconcerning
whatweknowaboutclimatechangehavealsogrownmoreheated.Climatechange
vii
viii Preface
may well be the most contentious environmental issue that we have yet seen.
Follow the issue in the news or in policy debates and you will see arguments
overwhetherornottheclimateischanging,whetherornothumanactivitiesare
causingittochange,howmuchandhowfastitisgoingtochangeinthefuture,
howbigandhowserioustheimpactswillbe,andwhatcanbedone–atwhatcost–
tosloworstopit.Theseargumentsareintensebecausethestakesarehigh.But
what is puzzling, indeed troubling, about these arguments is that they include
bitterpublicdisagreements,betweenpoliticalfiguresandcommentatorsandalso
betweenscientists,overpointsthatwouldappeartobestraightforwardquestions
ofscientificknowledge.
Inthisbook,wetrytoclarifyboththescientificandthepolicyargumentsnow
beingwagedoverclimatechange.Wefirstconsidertheatmospheric-scienceissues
thatformthecoreoftheclimate-changesciencedebate.Wereviewpresentscien-
tificknowledgeanduncertaintyaboutclimatechangeandthewaythisknowledge
isusedinpublicandpolicydebate,andexaminetheinteractionsbetweenpoliti-
calandscientificdebate–ineffect,toaskhowcantheclimate-changedebatebe
socontentiousandsoconfusing,whensomanyoftheparticipantssaythatthey
arebasingtheirargumentsonscientificknowledge.
Wethenbroadenourfocus,toconsiderthepotentialimpactsofclimatechange,
andtheavailableresponses–bothintermsoftechnologicaloptionsthatmight
be developed or deployed, and in terms of policies that might be adopted. For
these areas as for climate science, we review present knowledge and discuss its
implications for action and how it is being used in public and policy debate.
Finally, we pull these strands of scientific, technical, economic, and political
argument together to present an outline of a path forward out of the present
deadlock.
Thebookisaimedataneducatedbutnon-specialistaudience.Acourseortwo
inphysics,chemistry,orEarthsciencemightmakeyoualittlemorecomfortable
withtheexposition,butisnotnecessary.Weassumenospecificpriorknowledge
excepttheabilitytoreadagraph.Thebookissuitabletosupportadetailedcase-
studyofclimatechangeincollegecoursesonenvironmentalpolicyorscienceand
public policy. It should also be useful for scientists seeking to understand how
scienceisused–andmisused–inpolicydebates.
Manypeoplehavehelpedthisprojectcometofruition.Helpfulcommentson
themanuscripthavebeenprovidedbyDavidBallon,StevePorter,MarkShahinian,
andScottSiff,aswellasseminarparticipantsattheUniversityofBritishColumbia,
theUniversityofMichiganSchoolofPublicHealth,andtheUniversityofMichigan
LawSchool.A.E.D.receivedsupportforthisprojectfromaNASANewInvestiga-
torProgramgranttotheUniversityofMaryland,aswellasfromtheUniversity