the power of the national security adviser

171 Pages·2015·3.6 MB·English

THE POWER OF THE NATIONAL SECURITY ADVISER

A THESIS
SUBMITTED TO THE
INTERSCHOOL HONORS PROGRAM IN INTERNATIONAL
SECURITY STUDIES

Center for International Security and Cooperation
Freeman Spogli Institute for International Studies

Stanford University

By:

George John Saba

May 2015

Adviser: Dr. Coit D. Blacker
Abstract

Given that the national security adviser escapes Congressional approval and oversight and yet
yields tremendous influence, it is important to understand why some advisers are more powerful
than others. This thesis argues that the managerial style of the president best explains this
difference in power. The president has considerable autonomy in establishing the power structure
of his administration and can determine how much power the national security adviser will have.
The view that the power of the national security adviser relates to the institutional growth of the
presidency has merit, but a number of examples show that it is a weak explanation. Weak
national security advisers have had many institutional resources (Jones), while strong national
security advisers have operated with fewer (Kissinger and Brzezinski). While the personal
relationship between the president and the national security adviser are extremely important in
the amount of power the adviser has, poor relationships and strong advisers (Nixon and
Kissinger) as well as good relationships and weak advisers (Bush and Rice) have occurred in the
White House. A good personal relationship is important, but not necessary nor predictive of a
strong national security adviser. The managerial style model explains the cases that the
institutional growth and personal relationship frameworks cannot. This thesis demonstrates that
the national security adviser role is a staff position and exists because the president finds it
useful. Why some advisors have more power than others is most influenced by the president’s
style of management.

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For My Parents

 iii
Acknowledgements

First of all, this thesis would not have happened without the endless love and support of
my parents, Teresa and George Saba. If I grow up to be half the person that each of them are, I
will consider myself successful. Their unconditional love, compassion, forgiveness and kindness
inspire me to be more like them each and every day.
I next thank my thesis adviser, Dr. Coit D. Blacker. During my junior year, I was
recommended by a friend to reach out to Professor Blacker, because I was interested in learning
more about the role of the national security adviser. Knowing how busy he was and that we had
never met, I had few expectations that he would be willing to advise me. Nonetheless, I sent him
an email asking for a meeting. Unlike most professors, he responded quickly and arranged a time
to meet. During the meeting, I told him about my project and asked if he would consider
advising my thesis or knew of anyone who might be a good fit. He quickly said that he would be
happy to advise. From day one, Professor Blacker has impressed me with his willingness to go
above and beyond for me. Given the many demands on his time, he could have easily refused or
recommended another faculty member. Instead, he happily agreed to advise my thesis and has
been my adviser throughout this year. The wisdom of his direction and advice has exceeded my
expectations. This thesis would not have happened without his guidance and support.
My first job at Stanford was with Professor Martha Crenshaw. She introduced me to
research in the international security field by allowing me to help with the Mapping Militants
Project. After completing a CISAC thesis in the Honors program, my CISAC experience has
really come full circle with Professor Crenshaw. As one of the co-professors of CISAC along
with Professor Blacker, she has been just as supportive of me as she was my first year. Despite
being extremely busy, she has always had her door open to me. From day one, Professor
Crenshaw questioned my definition of “power” and how I would be able to measure it. It is
because of her suggestions, that I was encouraged to make my ranking of each adviser’s power
more rigorous.
Shiri Krebs has also been a huge help with this process. She has the difficult job of being
the TA for the entire CISAC Honors program. That requires numerous papers to read and
students to help. I especially appreciate her inviting me into her office to discuss my thesis
during the final hours. She is extremely busy and has always put her students first.
A big thanks to Dr. Amy Zegart who helped a lot by giving me one of her books, Flawed
by Design. I really enjoyed attending the CISAC holiday party at her house and she made me,
one of two students at the entire party, feel very welcome in her home. Her guidance with my
thesis has been invaluable and I am grateful I for her suggestions for getting my thesis off the
ground and steering it in the right direction.
I would also like to thank all of my mentors over the last four years who have given me
guidance and their valued time over the years: Colonel Joe Felter, Dr. Scott Sagan, Dr. David
Holloway, Assemblyman Joe Nation, David Crane, Dr. Alyssa O’Brien, Dr. Al Camarillo, Dr.
Susan Blumenthal, Robert Dallek, Dr. Milana Trounce, Senator Russ Feingold, Secretary Tom
Perez, Councilman Michael Tubbs, Tiq Chapa and Ro Khanna.
Also, if it were not for Stanford Baseball Program, I would not be at Stanford. I also would have
not have made a trip to Austin, Texas. Before our first game at the University of Texas, Austin,
we had a several hours free prior to game time. Realizing that the LBJ library was nearby, I

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asked my coaches permission to make a visit. As they always have supported my academic
endeavors at Stanford, Coaches Mark Marquess and Dean Stotz encouraged me to go. They had
also permitted me to forego the 2013 fall practice to participate in the Stanford in Washington
program. I was recruited by them to attend and play baseball at Stanford; without their support,
trust and confidence in me, it is unlikely I would be writing this thesis today.
It is important to thank Dr. Condoleezza Rice who inspired me to write this thesis. I
remember when I first told her about my thesis idea on the national security adviser. She
responded, “Well, you know one!” Since then, she has been extremely supportive and generous
with her time and advice. I am very fortunate she accepted me into her class and hired me as a
research assistant.
I will be forever grateful for the help of Professor Michael McFaul. He met with me on
short notice to share his experience working for General Jones in the NSC. He was very
generous with his time and thoroughly answered all of my questions. Some of his comments
sparked an interest to conduct more interviews and have inspired me to continue researching
Jones as a national security adviser. Professor McFaul has been generous to me from day one
when I took his class this past fall. I am very thankful and grateful to him.
It was the interview with Professor McFaul that inspired me to ask Ambassador Karl
Eikenberry, leader of CISAC Honors College, about Jones’s role in the formation of U.S.-
Afghanistan policy. Ambassador Eikenberry was extremely helpful in my formulation of my
thesis topic this past September. I am very lucky and thankful that he responded so quickly to my
email question regarding Jones and Afghanistan.
I would also like to thank another, CISAC Honors College leader, Dr. Tom Fingar. He
also helped me think through my thesis topic and set up some amazing meetings during out trip
in Washington D.C. He has also put me in touch with the “Honest Broker”, General Scowcroft. I
will be able to speak with the “best” national security adviser about the role in the near future.
Although our conversation will come after the due date of this thesis, I plan to use his remarks
and interview to continue working on this project. I greatly appreciate both General Scowcroft
and Dr. Fingar for this opportunity to discuss the power of the national security adviser.
I want to offer a huge thanks to Walter Pincus, whose class I have great memories of at
Stanford in Washington. He was generous enough to send an email to Zbigniew Brzezinski on
my behalf. Although Dr. Brzezinski was unable to answer all of my questions, he was able to
provide me with a very powerful quote.
I would like to thank my friends. Daniel Khalessi, winner of the 2013 Firestone award, is
the inspiration for my CISAC experience. When I was a sophomore, I had the good fortune of
taking a class with Daniel; we met in our TA’s (Arash Aramesh-another amazing mentor) office
hours. Over a breakfast at the newly built Arrillaga Dining Hall, he told me about his honors
thesis on the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty and raved about the CISAC program. Since that
breakfast, he has been a mentor, coach, role model, and most importantly a great friend. I would
not have applied for CISAC if it were not for him. Two of my best friends have taken time out of
their busy schedules to read through and edit this thesis, Nick Ahamed and Chris Tutunjian. I
met Nick on a CISAC sponsored Sophomore College trip, The Face of Battle. That class sparked
my interest in U.S. foreign policy. After seeing my thesis presentation, Nick encouraged me to
make comprehensive charts on each of the frameworks. I believe this has improved my thesis
tremendously and am very grateful for his advice. Chris and I were in the same freshman dorm

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and have discussed security issues together ever since. I would also like to thank Matthew
Colford, my “big” in SigEp, who has been a great role model for me. It was his suggestion that I
ask Professor Blacker to advise my thesis. That was great advice.
Finally, I wish to extend my sincere appreciation for the other members of the CISAC
honors program: Sam Rebo: my roommate who put up with me during honors college and future
Transiberian Railroad traveling partner; Patrick Cirenza: the man who endured an entire summer
sitting across from me in Dr. Rice’s office and future classmate at Cambridge; Akshai Baskaran:
the man who inspired me to learn more about renewable energy while sitting next to me on the
way to Senior Formal on a bus; Kelsey Dayton: the wordsmith who’s grammar acumen I will
never achieve and always envy; Sean Hiroshima: literally the best dressed person I have seen in
my life, but more importantly just a genuinely good guy who laughs at my awful jokes; Annie
Kapnick: fellow Biosecurity Class TA who knows what it’s like to grade all of those homework
assignments; Sarah Kunis: the classmate who I looked up to in my first polisci class at Stanford;
Teo Lamiot: name rhyming buddy and good friend since freshman year in Alondra; Austin
Lewis: one of the nicest guys I have met at Stanford whose topic I thought was spelled with a V
for the entire year until I saw his powerpoint; Eliza Thompson: who is one of the few people who
likes my Obama impersonation, I think; Adrienne von Schulthess: fellow White House intern
who I have admired since the first time I met her at Stanford and last but not least, my
Sophomore College Assistant and Alternative Spring Break co-leader, Taylor Grossman.
Without her patience and organization, neither of those trips would have been as outstandingly
successful as they were. From the Groupme messages to the attempts at small unit cohesion, I
will always have fond memories of you all.

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Table of Contents

Preface xii

-Chapter 1-HISTORY OF THE ROLE 1

Harry
 Truman:
 National
 Security
 Act
 of
 1947
  1

Dwight
 Eisenhower:
 An
 administrative
 assistant
  2

John
 F.
 Kennedy:
 A
 new
 role
  3

Richard
 Nixon:
 National
 security
 adviser
 and
 secretary
 of
 state
  5

The
 Tower
 Commission
  7

Brent
 Scowcroft:
 Honest
 broker
 and
 role
 model
  12

Sandy
 Berger
 and
 Condoleezza
 Rice:
 An
 increase
 in
 visibility
  13

Susan
 Rice:
 The
 current
 adviser
  15

Importance
  16

-Chapter 2-THE SHOULDERS OF GIANTS 17

General
 literature
 on
 the
 national
 security
 adviser
  17

Three
 explanatory
 models
  20

A.

 Institutional
 Growth

  20

B.
 Personal
 relationship
 between
 the
 national
 security
 adviser
 and
 the
 president
  23

C.
 The
 president’s
 management
 style
  26

-Chapter 3-INSTITUTIONAL GROWTH 32

Description
 of
 explanatory
 model
  32

Overview
 of
 the
 growth
 of
 presidential
 power:
 from
 TR
 to
 Obama
  33

Growth
 of
 the
 National
 Security
 Council
  34

Figure 3-1: Expected Relationship between National Security Advisers and Their
Power* 40

Case
 studies
  40

Bundy’s
 power
 flux
  40

Early
 power
  41

Weakening
 of
 the
 role
 and
 the
 framework
  42

General(ly)
 Weak
  43

Powerful
 data
  52

Figure 3-2: Estimated Power of the National Security Adviser 54

Conclusion:
 Explanatory
 strengths
 and
 limits
 of
 this
 model
  55

-Chapter 4-THE PERSONAL RELATIONSHIP 56

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Description
 of
 explanatory
 model
  56

Case
 studies
  57

The
 Boston
 boys
  57

Clash
 of
 cultures
  59

An
 odd
 couple
  64

The
 honest
 brokers
  68

A
 friend
 of
 Bill
  74

The
 professor
  79

Conclusion:
 Explanatory
 strengths
 and
 limits
 of
 this
 model
  83

-Chapter 5-THE MANAGERIAL STYLE OF THE PRESIDENT 85

Description
 of
 explanatory
 model
  85

Case
 studies
  86

Decision-­‐making
 donkeys

  86

Grand
 ole
 executives:
 cabinet-­‐style
 government
  95

Conclusion:
 Explanatory
 strengths
 and
 limits
 of
 this
 model
  108

-Chapter 6-CONCLUSION 109

The
 three
 models:
 strengths
 and
 weaknesses
  110

Institutional
 growth
 model
  110

Personal
 relationship
 model
  111

Managerial
 style
 of
 the
 president
 model
  112

Comparing
 the
 frameworks
  113

Limitations
  114

Recommendation
 for
 future
 research
  115

Implications
  115

Appendix A: Institutional Growth of the NSC Staff in Relation to Power 117

Appendix B: Power Rating of the National Security Adviser 119

Appendix C: Personal Relations Between POTUS and His Adviser in Relation
to Power 124

Appendix E: Email Exchange: Former United States Secretary of State
Condoleezza Rice with the author, May 15, 2013 126

Appendix F: Email to Author Regarding Exchange Between Former United
States National Security Adviser, Zbigniew Brzezinski and Washington Post
Journalist, Walter Pincus, May 19, 2015 127

 viii
Appendix G: Interview Transcript: United States Ambassador to the Russian
Federation Michael McFaul with the author, May 20, 2015 128

Appendix H: McGeorge Bundy’s Archives at the LBJ Library in Austin,
Texas 133

Appendix I: Bundy Memo to LBJ, “Review of Foreign Aid Program” 134

Appendix J: “Agenda for Luncheon” 135

Appendix K: Email Exchange: Former United States Ambassador to
Afghanistan Lieutenant General Karl Eikenberry, May 21, 2015 136

Appendix L: Email Exchange: General Jim Jones, Former Commander of
United States Central Command with the author, May 21, 2015 137

Bibliography 138

Unpublished
 Primary
 Sources
  138

Archived
 Collections
 and
 Material
  138

Interviews
  138

Published
 Sources
  138

News
 and
 Media
 Sources
  152

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Figures

Figure 3-1: The Expected Relationship between National Security Advisers and Their Power
(Pg. 40)

Figure 3-2: Estimated Power of the National Security Advisers (pg. 54)

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