The Origins of Alliance

334 Pages·1990·10.19 MB·English

by  Stephen M. Walt

TheO rigoifAn lsl iances
Av oluinm thee s eries
CorSnteulidlnSi eecsu Arffiatiyr s
edibtyRe odb Jeerrtv is
RobJe.r tA rt
StepMh.W eanlt
TheO rigionfAs l liances
STEPHENM . WALT
CornUenlilv ePrrseistsy
ITHACAAN D LONDON
Copyrig©h 1t9 8b7yC orneUlnli versity
Alrli ghrtess ervEexdc.e fpotbr r iqeufo tatiinoa nr se vietwh,ib so ok,
orp artthse remoufs,nt o tb er eproduicnae ndy f orwmi thopuetr missiino n
writifnrgo tmh peu blisFhoerir n.f ormaatidodnr,eC sosr neUlnli versity
PresSsa,g Heo use5,1 2E asStt aStter eIetth,a Nceaw,Y or1k4 850.
Firpsutb lis1h9e8db7 y C orneUlnli versPirteys s
Firpsrti ntiCnogr,n ePlalp erba1c9k9s0,
Printientd h eU niteSdt atoefsA merica
LibraorfCy o ngreCsast aloging-in-PDuabtlai cation
WaltS,t ephMe.n,1 955-
Theo rigionfas l liances.
(Cornsetluld iienss e curaiftfya irs)
Bibliogrpa.p hy:
Includiensd ex.
1.A llianc2e. sI.n ternatrieolnaatli o3n·Ms i.d dlEea st-Foreign
relatio4n·Ms i.d dlEea st-Polaintdig cosv ernment-1945-
l.T itleI.IS .e ries.
JX045o.W335 1978 327.1'16'870-945766 06
ISBN-19378:-o -801-94481-s( pbk:a. l kp.a per)
CorneUlnli veirtsPyr essst ritvoeu ss ee nvironmenrteaslployn sible
suppliaenrdms a teritaotl hse f ulleexstte pnots siibnlt eh ep ublishoifn g
itbso okSsu.c hm ateriianlcsl uvdeeg etable-lboaws-eVdO,iC n kasn da cid­
frepea pertsh aatr er ecyclteodt,a clhllyo rineo-rfp raeretc,lo ym posoefd
nonwoofdi beFrosrf. u rthienrf ormatviiosoniu,tr w ebsiatte
www.cornellpress.cornell.edu.
10 Paperbapcrki nting
Contents
Preftaotc hePe a perEbdaictki on vit
Preef ac ix
1.I ntroduEcxtpilooAnrl:il nigFa onrcmea tion ll
2.E xplaAinlilniFgao nrcmea tion 17
3·F rotmh Bea ghdPaadct tot hSei Dxa yW ar 50
4·F rotmh Sei Dxa yW art ot hCea mDpa viAdc cords 104
5·B alanacniBdna gn dwagoning 147
6.I deolaongdAy l liFaonrcmea tion 181
7·T heI nstruomfAe lnltisaAi dn caen:dP enetration 218
8.C oncluAsliloin.Fa:on rcmea atnitdoh nBe a laonfWc oer ld
Power 262
AppendAilxl iaanncdAe lsi gnmientn htMesi ddElaes t,
1:
1955-1979 287
AppendTihxeB alaonfWc oer lPdo wer 289
2:
Bibliography 293
Index 311
[v)
Pretfota hcPeea perEbdaictki on
WhenI c omplettheibdso oink 1986t,h der amacthiacn gneosw
sweeptihnSego viUenti oann dE astEeurnr owpeer lea rguenlfyo re­
seeAnl.t hoIur gehc ogntizheasdthift si nS ovipeotl iccoyuw leda ken
NATO'cso hessiiognn ifiIcd ainndto letyx ,p ltohrpieos s siibnai lniyt y
deptThh.ep ublicoaftt hiiposan p erebdaictkpi roonv iadnoe psp or­
tuntiotyd os on ow.
Staftoesra ml liapnrciemsat robi allya angcaein tshtr eTahtrse.ftna ts,
tuma,r aef unctoifpo onw egre,o grapprhoixcimi tyo,f fencsaipvae­
biliatnipdee sr,c eiinvteedn tTihornosu.gt hhoCeuo tlW dar ,t hSeo viet
Uniopno seagd r eattherrte oat thm ea jpoorw eorfEs u ratshiatanh e
UnitSetda tdeisdA .s" balance-tohfe-otprhryre edaittch"tes sst,ea tes
balanbcyae ldl ywiinttghh Uen itSetda tcerse,a atg ilnogbc aola lition
thawta sb otrhe marksatbalabynl sdei gnifisctarnottnlhgyaet nrhS eo ­
viaeltl inaentcweo rk.
Thee venotfts h pea stth ryeeea lrasr gceolnyfi braml ance-of-threat
theoDroym.e srtiecf oirntm hsSe o viUenti oann tdh seu bseqdueecnit­
siotnop enniintd epenrdeegnitim neE sa stEeurnr ohpaev seh arply
reductehtdee ndefnocoryt hsetra tteobs a laangcaei tnhsSeto viet
UnioTno.n otaef ewe xamptlheNesA :T Oc ountarribeee sg inning
majroerd ucitnid oenfses npseen dtihnUegn ;i tSetda itspel sa nnttion g
withdars auwb stapnotritoaifilo t nas r mefdo rfrcoemsE urompoev;e ­
menfto Eru ropuenainht ayss l owaendUd;. Sr.e acttioto hnrese pres­
sioonfp ro-demfoocrricanecC syh insau ggtehsaCtth invaa'lsau sea
counterwteoiS gohvtip eotw ehra dse cliAnsea dm .o roem inoiuns­
stanpceer,c epotfUi .oSn.s- Jaripvaanlaerrsgyeer owinnogwt, h atth e
Sovitehtr enaolt o ngperro viadp eosw ermfoutlif voecr o operation.
Significatnhteclshyea, n hgaevsoe c curdreesdpc iotnet ienvuiedde nce
ofS ovimeitl imtiagrhyIt n.s tetahbdee, l tiheaSfto viaeitma sr lee ss
dangearnotduh sSa otv ipeotw ewilrlb er emovfreodmC entEruarlo pe
[v]i
Preftatoche Pe a perEbadcikt ion
liaetts h hee aorftt h edseev elopTmhernetnasot.pts o ,w earl oaner,e
crucial.
Whatd oebsa lance-tohfe-ortryeh vraeebaaoltiu ntt ernaptoilointiacls
aftethre C olWda rB?y d efinitthieeon ndo, ft hCeo lWda ri mplai es
diffuosfti horne Iacftu srr.e tnrte ncdosn tiwneuwil le s,e aer eunified
Germabnoyr detrhinene gw ilnyd epesntdaeotnfEet as s tEeurnr oap e,
weakeanneddi nterndailvliySd oevdiU enti oann,da s tronagnedr
morea ssertiJvaep( aCnh ifnuat'ucsro eu rrseem atihnmeso sdtif ficult
top rediIctwt i)bl.elf alre cslse wahri csht aptoesste h meo sste rious
threaatsas r ;e suilntt,e rnaatiloinganlm weinbltelms o raem biguous
anlde dsusr aPbelrec.e potfii notnwilesln bte i ncreaismipnogrltya nt,
becatuhsdeei striobfcu atpiaobniw liibel tlmi oersee q uaanlgd e ogra­
phym ayn ooltf fcelreg auri daTnhcuets.h Eea stEeurnr opsetaant es
mayl eatno watrhdWe e ssth ouSlodv iientt enatpipoenmasor r e
threatoertni inblgat,ct ko waMrods cioafwr euniGfeiremdap noys es
thger eadtaenrg Seirm.i lraerllya,ta imoonnJsga paCnh,i naan,dt he
SovUineti oanrl ei kteobl eys hapleedbs ysp oweorrg eogrtahpahny
bye acsht ataes'sse ssomfte hnoett heirnst'e ntions.
Asf oNrA TOi tstehloefp ,t imrihsettiaocbr oimucat i ntatihnei ng
"AtlanCtioc nitsyh"o ublevd i ewweidts ho msek epticism. With­
mmu
ouatc leaanrdp resent threat, neitnhoeUrr. SE.u ropean politicians
taxpaayreleri skt eosl uyp paol rta rUg.eSm .i litaryi nEp urreospeen.c e
AlthoNuAgThO e'lsa borate sitruncsttuwiriteslu lltio otwhnp eaa lco ef
devoluotiruoyan r ,e surgoeftn hcSeeo vieti slt ihkrteeopla ryte serve
NATOi na nythliikniegt p sr esfeonrtAm n.d s hoornfU .Sp.r otection
antdh uenifyin g effeocftt hSseo vtiherte tahntea, ti oonfEs u roapree
likteolfi yn dc oopermaotrideoi nf fitcous luts tuanilne,es cso nomic
pressfruormte h Uen itSetda atnedts h Pea ciRfiicmo verrfiadmeisl iar
secucrointyc erns.
Whadto t hetsree nmdesaf no trh Uen itSetda tOents h?oe n hea nd,
thUeni teSdt ateexst'ernap lo siatpipoenea vresmn o rfea vornaobwl e
thaindt i wdh etnh bioso wka sfi rsptu blis(hIietndst. e prnraolb lems
mayb eq uitaen otmhaetrt oefcr o,u rTsheet. r)a digtoiaoolnfU a .lS .
grasntdr ahtaebsge ye tnop revaennsyti npgolwee frro mc ontrolling
thceo mbiinneddu srtersioaulor fcE eusr astihdaee; c loifnS eo viet
powemre antsh agto awli blele veena stioea rc hiBeuvtte h.ee n do f
thCeo lWda rc reanteewps r oblaeswm esl Ble.c aUu.sSep. r otection
willb el eismsp orttoia tnastl lUi.eSsi.,n fluoevnetcrhe e sstea itse s
virtuallyt odc eecrltAiatnti ehn.e samteh Uetn iimtSeet,da mtuesst
avoair dturne toi solataiswo enlailssa mr enewed tco"r euxspaodrte
democrtaotc hyde"e velowpoirnvlgidm a i liitnatreyrv eHnitsitoonr.y
suggetshtaamst a jwoarir s m orlei kwehleytn h Uen itSetda wtietsh ­
drafrwosm w oralfdf aHiirssta.ol ryss uog getshUta.stS m.il itianrtye r-
[vti]
Preftatoch Peepa e rbaEcdki tion
ventiionnt hTeh iWrodr lidsm orlei kteoll ye atdod espotainsdm
proloncigvile wda rt hatnos taablnedw orkadbelmeo crPaacrya.d ox­
icatlhleyr,e Uf.oSrl.ee ,a dmeurssst h ogwr eaitmearg inwaitsidoonm,,
andr estrtahiatnnht ed yi adtt hhee igohfUt . S.-Sroivviabeletrc ya,u se
thper oblteobm esf acwileld b em oraem biguaonudts h ree sources
availtaoab dlder tehseswilm l bef ewer.
Ins horbta,l ance-otfh-etorhreryve eatathl astt h ed ecliinnt eh e
Sovitehtr eiasc.t r eaatw ionrgli dnw hicthhU en itSetda tweilsle njoy
greasteecru artil teysc so satn dr isBku.ti t i sa lsa ow orlidnw hich
policchyo iwilcle bsem ordei ffiacnudUl .tS i.nfl uenwilcle b es maller.
Andi its aw orlidnw hicphe rcepotfii notnewilsln te xeartp owerful
impaocnth owo thsetra treess potnoUd . Sa.c tioAlntsh.o utghhe
UnitSetda rteetsa einnosr maoduvsa ntwahgeecnso mpawrietdoh t her
natiointms u,ss tt sitlrlai b kael abnectew eeennc ouraagggirnegs sion
throuagphp arienndti ffaenrdpe rnocveo okpipnogs ittihorno muigsh­
placoerud n thinking belligerence.
STEPHME.WN A LT
ChicagIloli,n ois
Jun1990e
[vili]
Preface
Thaeb iltioat tyt racitsa v aallluiaaesbeslsti e na ncyo mpetsiytsi­ve
temB.yc ontrtahsowtsh,eoc auosteh etora sl iaggna itnhseatmr aeta
signidfiiscaadnvt.a U nntdaegresttahnfedo irncge ssh atiphneat te rna­
tioanlalli sahnocuetlsh de rebfeao v rietc aoln cfeormrno sstt atesmen.
Bye laboraanttdei sntgani unmgb oefhr y postehaseb oaultl ifaonrcmea ­
tino,t hbioso akt temtpoct osn trtiotb huauttne d earnsdti.n g
Likmeo sstc holeanrdleya vtohrpisrs,o jbeecgtwa in tshe vepruazl­
zelsW.h iilneg radusactheoI ow la,ss trbuyct kh seh adrips crepancy
betwewehnas tc howlraoratsbe o aultl iaanncdwe hsac to ntemporary
policy-ampapkaerrbesen lvtiel.edyI ndetehdte,w gor ouspese maeld­
mostt8 doe graepeasrF toer.x apmlet,hn eo titohnaa tl liaanrcee s
formteood p posster osntgaw taetssh eant ruiasmmo nsgc hroslY.ae t
botSho vieUt. aSsnt.da tersempeena atregdulteyhd ta htre e vewrasse
truteh,aa ntay p pearoafwn ecaneke swso ucladu tsheea ilrlt iode esf ect.
Similaalrtlhyom,uo gsshtc hovliaerwsie dde olaosag w ye acka uosfe
alignmtehSneot v,fi eetao fr"c apiteanlciisrntct" l,S eomveisueptp ort
focro untirnti he"esos ciacloimsmto nw,e"aa nlUdt .hSf.ea arbso au t
"Commumnoinsotl siutghg"e tshtatethdp e ol itliecaadloe fbr osts hu ­
perpotwoeoriksd eologsye rqiu.oDi uitssela ygreaelmseeomn etrsg ed
ovetrhi em portoaffn ocreea iiagdnn p do lipteinceatlra asct aiuosonef s
alnimgetnB.e csaetu hecsoem pebteilnigue nfdse irmlpioe rptoalnitc y
diseps(u itncltuhdieim npgo rtoafcn rceed itbhinele ietfdyoo ,rv erseas
intervaenndtt hipeoo nl,i ticoaflm ielyifs tfpaeercntdsai nnfdgo reign
adi)d,e termwihniivcnihge wwesr meo st acsceuermwaeetdlew l o rth
theef fort.
Alotnhge y ,wa asIe xamitnhetedh eoarnpydr acotfai lclei aanndc es
consiedveirdeedfn rcotemh M ei ddElaesa td,d itpiuoznzaellme esr ged.
Thmeo sitm poritnavnotlb vaeldao nfpc oew etrhe oIwr ayc.so nvinced
thiawtta tsh meo suts egfueln etrhaeloa rvya ilbaubItwl aeds,i sturbed
[ix]