The latest developments in impact assessment methodologies for abiotic resource depletion

14 Pages·2012·0.67 MB·English

by  Tommie Ponsioen

The latest developments in impact assessment
methodologies for abiotic resource depletion
Workshop “Security of Supply and Scarcity of Raw Materials: a Methodological
Framework for Supply Chain Sustainability Assessment”
Ranco, 13-14th November
Abiotic resources
• fossil resources
– crude oil
– natural gas
– coal

• minerals
– long list of metals
– non-metals (phosphorus)
Stakeholder consultation
• 20 participants in total representing policy, industry and experts

• Selection of three indicators for minerals and two for fossil fuels
using different time horizons:
• For the short term (not greater than 5 years) perspective, an indicator that
expresses availability of resources depending on political factors
• the midterm (<20 years) focuses on the increase in effort
• the long term focuses on overall availability (not for fossil fuels)

Publication: Vieira M., Storm P., Goedkoop M. 2011. Stakeholder Consultation: What do Decision Makers in Public
Policy and Industry Want to Know Regarding Abiotic Resource Use? In M. Finkbeiner, Towards Life Cycle
Management (pp. 27-34). Springer Science+Business Media B.V.
ILCD handbook
Resource use (extracted
amount)
CML/EDIP
Decreased availability
Schneider e.a.
Regeneration Recovery (urban &
Vieira e.a.
(natural growth) waste mining)
Damage to availability of EI99
resources for society
ReCiPe
LC-Impact
future availability &
effort needed
Impact2002+
future provision of needs
EPS
Developments since the ILCD study
• Schneider et al. (2011): The anthropogenic stock extended abiotic
depletion potential (extension of “reduced availability” approach).
• Vieira et al. (accepted): Ore grade decrease – relation between
marginal ore grade decrease and marginal increase of metal
extracted – as a midpoint indicator (minerals only)
• LC-Impact (ongoing): Surplus cost as an endpoint indicator (fossil
and minerals)
LC-IMPACT work
• Surplus cost (SC): future additional cost of extracting fossil
resources due to the marginal cost increase
• SC = Σ ( MCI * P * 1/[1+d]t )
t
• MCI = marginal cost increase; P = annual production; d = discount
t
rate; t = years after present

Resource use Population growth

Economic growth
Substitution
Resource extraction
Extraction Technological development
technique
Extraction cost increase (MCI)
Future demand
Surplus cost (SC) Future production
LC-IMPACT work
• MCI example for crude oil:

100
)le
r 90
r
a
b r 80 Oil shales
e
p D 70 Heavy oil bitumen
S
U 60
8 Arctic
0 50
0
2 All deep water
( t 40
s
o Other EOR
c 30 0.8
n
oit 20 CO2 EOR ).q
c e
udo 10 Other conv. oil lio 0.6
rP 0 g
MENA conv. oil k 0.4
0 1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 r
e
p
Cumulative production (billion barrels) $ 0.2
S
U
(
Source: IEA, 2010. Resources to Reserves 2010. Oil, Gas t 0.0
s
o
and Coal Technologies for the Energy Markets of the C 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7
Future. To be released Autumn 2010. Cumulative production (1015kg oil eq.)
LC-IMPACT work
• Future production scenarios (IPPC, 2000)
• Societal perspectives (individualist: A1, hierarchist B2, egalitarian:
B1)

800 (a) 800 (b) 800 (c)
) ) )
ra 700 ra 700 ra 700
e e e
y y y
/J 600 /J 600 /J 600
E E E
( ( (
n 500 n 500 n 500
o o o
it it it
cu 400 cu 400 cu 400
d d d
o o o
r 300 r 300 r 300
p p p
lio 200 lio 200 lio 200
e e e
d d d
u 100 u 100 u 100
r r r
C C C
0 0 0
2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100 2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100 2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100
Crude oil production scenarios A1 (a), B1 (b), and B2 (c) for all six macro-
economic models
(source: IPCC, 2000. Emission scenarios. A special report of the IPCC working group III.)
LC-IMPACT work
• Discount rate: inflation/opportunity cost correction
• Societal perspectives (individualist: 15%, hierarchist 3%, egalitarian:
0%)

Discount rate 3% Discount rate 15%
1
0.8

r
o
t
c
a 0.6
f

t
n
u
0.4
o
c
s
i
D 0.2
0
0 20 40 60 80 100
Years after present
Environmental mechanism minerals
• Decrease in ore grade
Population growth Economicgrowth
in % (midpoint)
Technological
Substitution Metal demand
development
• Marginal cost increase
Secondarymetal
Metal extraction
production
• Surplus cost in US$
Decreasein ore grade
(endpoint)

Increase in ore mined
Mining technique
per metal mined
Changein operating
costs(MCI)
Future production
Surplus costs (SC)