The great unraveling : losing our way in the new century

273 Pages·2004·1.12 MB·English

by  Greenspan

The GREAT UNRAVELING
ALSO BY PAUL KRUGMAN
The Age of Diminished Expectations
Peddling Prosperity
Pop Internationalism
The Accidental Theorist
The Return of Depression Economics
Fuzzy Math
The GREAT UNRAVELING
Losing Our Way in the New Century
PAUL KRUGMAN
W. W. NORTON & COMPANY
New York • London
The columns on which much of this book is based (except those listed below) originally appeared in The
New York Times, and to the extent they are reprinted here, they are reprinted with permission. Inquiries
concerning permission to reprint any article or portion thereof should be directed to The New York Times
Company, News Services Division, The Times Agency, Ninth Floor, 229 West 43rd Street, New York, NY
10036 or [email protected].
“O Canada: A Neglected Nation Gets Its Nobel” (October 19, 1999) and “Enemies of the WTO: Bogus
Arguments Against the World Trade Organization” (November 24, 1999) are reprinted with permission of
Slate. © SLATE/Distributed by United Feature Syndicate, Inc.
“Seven Habits of Highly Defective Investors” (December 29, 1997), “Asia: What Went Wrong?” (March 2,
1998), “The Ice Age Cometh” (May 25, 1998), “Supply, Demand, and English Food” (July 20, 1998),
“Hong Kong’s Hard Lesson” (September 28, 1998), “Why Germany Kant Kompete” (July 19, 1999), and
“Who Knew? The Swedish Model Is Working” (January 25, 1999) are reprinted with permission of
Fortune. © Time Inc. All rights reserved.
Copyright © 2003 by Paul Krugman
All rights reserved
Production manager: Amanda Morrison
Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data
Krugman, Paul R.
The great unraveling: losing our way in the new century / Paul Krugman.—1st ed.
p. cm.
ISBN: 978-0-39307117-7
1. Economic forecasting—United States. 2. United States—Economic policy—2001– 3. United States—
Economic conditions—2001– 4. United States—Foreign economic relations. 5. Monetary policy—United
States. 6. Stocks—Prices—United States. 7. Finance—United States. I.
Title.
HC106.83.K78 2003
330.973—dc21
2003012060
W. W. Norton & Company, Inc., 500 Fifth Avenue, New York, N.Y. 10110
www.wwnorton.com
W. W. Norton & Company Ltd., Castle House, 75/76 Wells Street, London W1T 3QT
To Robin
Contents
Acknowledgments
Preface
Introduction: A Revolutionary Power
I
BUBBLE TROUBLE
1. Irrational Exuberance
Seven Habits of Highly Defective Investors
The Ice Age Cometh
The Ponzi Paradigm
Dow Wow, Dow Ow
Money for Nothing?
Create and Destroy
The Pizza Principle
Damaged by the Dow
2. Portents Abroad
Asia: What Went Wrong?
Why Germany Kant Kompete
We’re Not Japan
A Leap in the Dark
3. Greenspanomics
Don’t Ask Alan
Eleven and Counting
Herd on the Street
Living with Bears
Dubya’s Double Dip?
Mind the Gap
Passing the Buck
Stocks and Bombs
The Vision Thing
Dealing with W
My Economic Plan
4. Crony Capitalism, U.S.A.
Crony Capitalism, U.S.A.
Two, Three, Many?
Enemies of Reform
Greed Is Bad
Flavors of Fraud
Everyone Is Outraged
Succeeding in Business
The Insider Game
The Outrage Constraint
Business as Usual
II
FUZZY MATH
5. The Bait…
Oops! He Did It Again
We’re Not Responsible
Fuzzier and Fuzzier
Et Tu, Alan?
Slicing the Salami
The Money Pit
The Universal Elixir
Bad Heir Day
Pants on Fire
6. …And the Switch
Hitting the Trifecta
The Quiet Man
Our Wretched States
Bush’s Aggressive Accounting
True Blue Americans
The Great Evasion
Springtime for Hitler
Is the Maestro a Hack?
7. 2–1=4
The Pig in the Python
Prescription for Failure
A Retirement Fable
No Good Deed
2016 and All That
Sins of Commission
Bad Medicine
Fear of All Sums
III
VICTORS AND SPOILS
8. Things Pull Apart
America the Polarized
The Sons Also Rise
Hey, Lucky Duckies!
9. The Private Interest
Paying the Price
The Public Interest
The 55-Cent Solution
Money-Grubbing Games
The Long Haul
10. Exploiting September 11
The One-Eyed Man
An Alternate Reality
The Rove Doctrine
The Reality Thing