The Future of Policing: A Practical Guide for Police Managers and Leaders

402 Pages·2011·2.98 MB·English

by  Joseph A. Schafer

K11722_cover 6/14/11 12:03 PM Page 1
C M Y CM MY CY CMY K
FORENSICS AND CRIMINAL JUSTICE S
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The Future of Policing |r
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A Practical Guide for Police Managers and Leaders |
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As communities continue to undergo rapid demographic shifts that modify their n
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composition, culture, and collective values, police departments serving those communities L
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must evolve accordingly in order to remain effective. The Future of Policing: A Practical v
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Guide for Police Managers and Leaders provides concrete instruction to agencies on Policing
how to promote successful policing by proceeding on a course informed by future trends
and emerging community forces.
Designed for typical police departments with common structures, problems, and opportunities, T
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this book offers a unique juxtaposition of real-life examples, futures research, emergent
A Practical Guide for
trends, and management implications. Each chapter provides a discussion of the professional e
literature, current and projected trends, and situations faced by agency executives and
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Police Managers and Leaders
leaders. Through this multidimensional and contemporaneous approach, the book explores
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community and political variables crucial to the decision-making process. It describes
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methods that managers can employ to explore the future and prepare their agencies for u
possible, probable, and preferable trends and opportunities.
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Drawn from the authors’ research, as well as their own instructional and practical experience
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in the policing profession, this volume goes beyond esoteric, theoretical analysis and instead
provides practical and well-grounded strategies for those who aspire to become police f

managers or current managers wishing to improve their proficiency. Using futures research P
and methodologies as the foundation for the text, this volume prepares practitioners to o Joseph A. Schafer
meet the challenges of policing and police management in the 21st century.
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i Michael E. Buerger
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n Richard W. Myers
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Carl J. Jensen, III
Bernard H. Levin
K11722
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Composite
The Future of
Policing
A Practical Guide for
Police Managers and Leaders
Modern Police
Administration
Series Editor:
Gary Cordner, PhD
Professor, Kutztown University
Commissioner, Commission on Accreditation for Law Enforcement Agencies (CALEA)
Deputy Editors:
Theron Bowman, PhD Gary Margolis, EdD
Chief of Police, Arlington, Texas Research Associate Professor,
Commissioner, Commission on University of Vermont Commissioner,
Accreditation for Law Enforcement Commission on Accreditation for
Agencies (CALEA) Law Enforcement Agencies
Ed Connors, JD Darrel Stephens, MS
President, Institute for Law and Justice Director of State and Local Programs,
Johns Hopkins University Former Chief
Larry Hoover, PhD
of Police, Charlotte–Mecklenburg,
Professor, Sam Houston State University North Carolina
Past President, Academy of Criminal
Justice Sciences
Published Titles:
Police Leadership in a Democracy: Conversations with America’s Police Chiefs
Jim Isenberg
The Future of Policing: A Practical Guide for Police Managers and Leaders
Joseph A. Schafer, Michael E. Buerger, Richard W. Myers, Carl J. Jensen III, and
Bernard H. Levin
The Future of
Policing
A Practical Guide for
Police Managers and Leaders
Joseph A. Schafer
Michael E. Buerger
Richard W. Myers
Carl J. Jensen III
Bernard H. Levin
Boca Raton London New York
CRC Press is an imprint of the
Taylor & Francis Group, an informa business
CRC Press
Taylor & Francis Group
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Boca Raton, FL 33487-2742
© 2012 by Taylor & Francis Group, LLC
CRC Press is an imprint of Taylor & Francis Group, an Informa business
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Version Date: 2011913
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Table of Contents
Foreword xi
Acknowledgments xiii
Author Biographies xv
1 Setting the Stage 1
Challenges in Police Organizations 5
Leadership, Management, Supervision, and Administration 8
Leadership 9
Management 9
Supervision and Administration 10
Understanding the Four Concepts 11
Problems with the Present Police Organizational Model 11
Bureaucracy 11
Problems with Police Bureaucracies in Action 13
Other Problems in Contemporary Police Organizations 16
The Role of Change 17
An Analysis of Failure 18
Lack of Imagination and Creativity 19
Failure to Gain Comprehensive/Strategic Understanding
of the Threat 20
Inability or Unwillingness to Share Information and
Cooperate 20
Failure to Plan and Train 21
Failure to Act Decisively 22
Implications of Failures 22
The Potential Benefits of Futures Studies for Policing 23
Five Key Themes 26
Theme One: Police Leaders Think Not Only about Crime,
but Also about People, Information, and Relationships 27
Theme Two: Police Leaders Need to Be Concerned about
More than Just Policies and Procedures; They Must Also
Focus on People, Sovereigns, Cultures, and Constraints 27
Theme Three: Effective Police Leaders Are Concerned with
Enhancing the Efficiency, Integrity, Efficacy, Innovation,
and Opportunities of the Police Organization and Police
Profession 28
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vi Table of Contents
Theme Four: Effective Police Leaders Understand the
Importance of Exhibiting, Developing, and Allowing
Leadership throughout the Organization 29
Theme Five: Futures Studies and Thinking Is a Key Tool
of Leadership 30
The Emergence of Futures Thinking within and about
American Policing 32
The Organization of This Book 33
References 35
2 Futures Thinking and Research 39
The Acceleration of Change 40
What Is Futures Studies? 42
A Short History of Futures Research 50
Futures Studies as a Leadership Tool 51
Methods of Forecasting the Future 55
Just over the Horizon: Environmental Scanning 57
Scope: Short-Term Forecasts 57
Mining Expertise: The Delphi Method 60
Scope: Short- to Long-Term Futures; Any Project That
Requires the Input of Groups 60
Managing the Future: Scenarios 64
Scope: Short to Long Range, Where It Is Desirable to
Consider Multiple Futures 64
Conclusion 69
References 71
3 Future Trends 73
Technological Trends 74
Future Computing Applications 79
Nanotechnology 82
Robotics 83
Other Technologies 83
Demographic Trends 84
Global Trends 85
United States Trends 86
Economic Trends 89
Social and Community Trends 91
Political Trends 93
What Does All This Mean for Policing? 95
Technology 95
Demographics: Youth, Immigrants, and Seniors 98
Economics, Society, and Politics 100
Table of Contents vii
Conclusion 101
References 102
4 Communities 105
The Police and the Community 106
The Evolving Nature of Community 108
Communication Technology and Community 109
Communication Technology and Policing 112
Social Networking Tools and Social Engagement 114
Policing Implications of Social Networking 117
Involving Communities in Policing 119
Trust, Transparency, and Leadership 121
Challenges and Opportunities Created by the Changing
Nature of Community 129
Challenges 129
Opportunities 130
Unanswered Questions about the Future of Communities 132
References 134
5 Boundaries: Disappearing, Reemerging, and Merging 137
Three Examples in High Relief 138
The 9/11 Attacks 138
The Status Quo 138
The Lessons 138
Hurricane Katrina 139
The Status Quo 139
The Lessons 139
The Emergence of Globalization 140
The Status Quo 140
The Lessons 140
Lessons in Common 141
Why Boundaries? 144
The Modern Context of Boundaries 145
Technologies and Policing 146
Jurisdiction, Mandates, and Threats 149
The Influence of Money 153
Federal vs. Local Responsibilities 155
Intelligence 157
Militarization 158
Transparency 161
External Oversight and Influence 165
Conclusion 168
References 171
viii Table of Contents
6 The Future of Crime 175
Economic Drivers 176
Health Care 178
Technology 178
Immigration 185
The Drug War 187
A Problem of Identity 188
Gang-Based Crime 189
Other Trends in Crime and Policing 190
Investigation 191
Criminals 192
Victims 193
Citizen Resilience 193
Conclusion 195
References 196
7 On the Beat 201
Technology 202
Transportation 202
Communication 206
Computers 212
Security 218
Future Law and Governance Considerations 223
What Works in Policing? Evidence-Based Operations 225
Predictive Policing 227
Conclusion 231
References 232
8 Police Personnel: Culture, Hiring, and
Development 235
Cultural Forces 238
The Community Factor 240
The Organizational History Factor 241
Personnel 241
Alternative Models of Employment 244
Hiring 245
Outreach 246
Screening and Selection 249
Hiring of Nonsworn, Part-Time, and Special Duty Personnel 253
Challenges in the Hiring Process 254
Training 256
Table of Contents ix
Employee Development 260
Discipline 261
Conclusion 264
References 265
9 Organizational Solutions 267
Mission, Vision, and Values 268
Economic Realities in Policing 273
Budgets 274
Shrinking Resources 277
Labor Associations and Budgets 279
External Pressures on Budget 281
Managing through Tough Times 282
Employee Input 283
Organizational Evaluation 284
Policy Development and Accreditation 290
Progressive Approaches to Employee Discipline 291
Opportunities Emerging through Change 295
The Military 296
Community 296
The Senior Population 297
Intelligence and Information 297
Globalization and Social Networking 298
Leadership and Care 299
From Where Will Future Police Leaders Emerge? 302
Conclusion 306
References 306
10 On the Horizon: The Police Organization
of the Future 309
A Brief Look Backward 311
Structures and Processes 314
Neighborhood-Driven Policing (NDP) 315
Netcentric Policing 316
Transparency and Blurring Boundaries 318
Maximizing the Power of Generations 319
Eligibility for Employment 324
Drug Use 325
Low-Level Disorder Offenses 325
Alternate Lifestyles: Beyond Don’t Ask/Don’t Tell 326
Politicization 327
The Military Overlay 328