The Causes of War

342 Pages·1988·28.722 MB·English

by  Geoffrey Blainey

THCEAUS ES
OFWAR
By the same author
THE PEAKS OF LYELL
A CENTENARY HISTORY OF THE
UNIVERSITY OF MELBOURNE
GOLD AND PAPER
MINES IN THE SPINIFEX
THE RUSH THAT NEVER ENDED
THE TYRANNY OF DISTANCE
ACROSS A RED WORLD
THE RISE OF BROKEN HILL
THE STEEL MASTER
TRIUMPH OF THE NOMADS
A LAND HALF WON
THE BLAINEY VIEW
OUR SIDE OF THE COUNTRY
ALL FOR AUSTRALIA
THE GREAT SEESAW
THCAUSEE S
OFWAR
Geoffrey Blainey
ThiErddi tion
l�I
THE FREE PRESS
NEWYORK
THE FREE PRESS
A Division of Simon & Schuster Inc.
1230 Avenue oft he Americas
New York, N.Y. 10020
Copyright© 1973, 1977, 1988 by Geoffrey Blainey
All rights reserved, including the right ofreproduction
in whole or in part in any form.
THE FREE PRESS and colophon are trademarks
ofS imon & Schuster Inc.
Manufactured in the United States ofA merica
10 9 8 7 6 5 4 3
Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data
Blainey, Geoffrey.
The causes of war/Geoffrey Blainey.-3rd ed., 1st American ed.
p. m.
Bibliography: p.
Includes index.
ISBN 0--02---903592-g. ISBN 0--02-go3591-o (pbk.)
1. War. 2. Military history, Modern-20th century. I. Title
U21.2.B53 1988 88-6893
355'.027---dc19 CIP
Contents
Preface to the Third Edition vu
Preface to the First Edition lX
Book One: The Mystery of Peace
1 The Peace that Passeth Understanding 3
2 Paradise is a Bazaar 18
Book Two: The Web of War
3 Dreams and Delusions of a Coming War 35
4 While Waterbirds Fight 57
5 Death-Watch and Scapegoat Wars 68
6 WarC hests and Pulse Beats 87
7 ACalendarofWar 97
8 The Abacus of Power 108
Book Three: The Elusive Warmongers
g War as an Accident
10 Aims and Arms
11 A Day that Lives in Infamy
Book Four: The Varieties of War
12 Vendetta of the Black Sea 177
13 LongWars 186
14 And Shorter Wars 206
15 TheMysteryofWideWars 228
16 Australia's Pacific War 243
Conclusions
1 7 Myths of the Nuclear Era
18 War, Peace and Neutrality
Abbreviations
Notes
Select Bibliography 3I I
Index 321

Preface to the Third Edition
In the decade and a half since this book was published it seems
to have become one of the more widely quoted books on the
causes of war and peace. I have learnt much from the
discussion. I especially accept the criticism that the book, while
offering few direct comments on nuclear war, assumed that the
causes of war remained basically the same since the era of
cavalry. It is still my belief that the causes of war and even the
nature of war have not yet been drastically altered by the
advent of nuclear weapons. In a new chapter at the end of the
book I argue rather than, as before, beg my conclusion that in
international relations there is more continuity than chasm in
the years since 1945. On the other hand I have retreated from
my earlier opinion about the likely duration of a nuclear war of
the future. In the first edition I maintained too emphatically
that 'in the era of nuclear weapons a general war -if it occurs -
will probably be a long war'. While I still see a long nuclear war
as possible I do not think that, on existing evidence, it is more
likely to be long than short: both a long and short nuclear war
are possible.
Some critics of the first edition of this book had argued that
Japan's conduct and expectations on the eve of Pearl Harbor
in 1941, might well defy one of the main conclusions and
therefore the whole scaffolding of my argument. Similarly
Australia's and Britain's expectations on the eve of the fall of
Singapore in 1942 were said by some to contradict my
argument about the causes of war. Accordingly I looked closely
at these events, and, to meet the criticism, wrote a detailed
story leading up to the outbreak of the Pacific war, as seen from
the eyes of japan and one of her ultimate opponents, Australia.
That story appeared in an Australian paperback edition of the
book published in 1977: a slightly shortened version appears in
this edition as chapter 16.
The argument of this book depends on its dovetailed
conclusions. Like the scaffolding of a building it needs only one
Vlll Preface to the Third Edition
major piece of timber to break loose or topple, and the whole
edifice falls. I believe the edifice remains intact; and that
chapter 16 on the outbreak of the Pacific War and chapter 17 on
the nuclear era both fit into the scaffolding of the original
edition.
Geoffrey Blainey
Universiry of Melbourne
June 1987