The Arab Uprisings: What Everyone Needs to Know

225 Pages·2015·1.37 MB·English

by  James Gelvin

THE ARAB UPRISINGS
WHAT EVERYONE NEEDS TO KNOW®

THE ARAB UPRISINGS
WHAT EVERYONE NEEDS TO KNOW®
Second Edition
JAMES L. GELVIN
1
3
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Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data
Gelvin, James L., 1951–
The Arab Uprisings : what everyone needs to know / James L. Gelvin —
Second edition.
pages cm
ISBN 978–0–19–022275–8 (paperback) — ISBN 978–0–19–022274–1 (hardback)
1. Protest movements—Arab countries—History—21st century. 2. Protest
movements—Middle East—History—21st century. 3. Arab countries—Politics and
government—21st century. 4. Middle East—Politics and government—21st century.
5. Protest movements—Middle East. I. Title.
JQ1850.A91G37 2015
909′.097492708312—dc23
2014042166
1 3 5 7 9 8 6 4 2
Printed in the United States of America
on acid-free paper
CONTENTS
ACKNOWLEDGMENTS xi
1 A Revolutionary Wave? 1
What is the Arab world? 1
Is the Arab world homogeneous? 1
Why do Arabs identify with one another? 2
What was political life in the Arab world like on the eve of the uprisings? 4
Why have authoritarian governments been so common in the Arab world? 7
What was the state of the economy in the Arab world on the eve of the
uprisings? 10
What benefits did Arab regimes originally promise their populations? 12
Why and how did Arab regimes renege on the promises they had made
to their populations? 16
How did the demography of the Arab states make them vulnerable to
uprisings? 19
How did a food crisis make Arab states vulnerable to uprisings? 21
Why did populations wanting change in the Arab world have to take
to the streets? 24
Can we pinpoint the factors that caused the uprisings? 25
What was the spark that ignited the Arab uprisings? 27
vi CONTENTS
Where did the demand for human and democratic rights come from? 28
How did the demand for human rights and democracy strike roots in
the Arab world? 32
How pervasive was the demand for human and democratic rights in
the Arab world before the uprisings of 2010–11? 34
How appropriate is the word “wave” to describe the spread of protests
throughout the Arab world in 2010–11? 35
Where did the phrase “Arab Spring” come from, and how appropriate
is it to describe events in the Arab world? 37
2 The Beginning: Tunisia and Egypt 39
What characteristics do Tunisia and Egypt hold in common? 39
How entrenched were the autocracies ruling Tunisia and Egypt? 42
How did the regimes in Tunisia and Egypt attempt to control their
populations? 44
How widespread was corruption in Tunisia and Egypt? 44
How did the Tunisian uprising catch fire? 46
Why didn’t the Tunisian uprising take place earlier? 48
Was the uprising in Egypt like that of Tunisia? 50
How did the initial phase of the Egyptian uprising play itself out? 51
What was the role of social media in the Tunisian and Egyptian
uprisings? 54
Why did the Tahrir Square protesters and others adopt the tactic of
nonviolent resistance? 57
What was the role of labor in the two uprisings? 59
What was the role of Islamist groups in the two uprisings? 62
What was the Egyptian Muslim Brotherhood? 64
What are salafis? 65
Why did the armies in Tunisia and Egypt refuse to put down the initial
uprisings? 67
Why did the paths taken by the Tunisian and Egyptian uprisings diverge? 70
Contents vii
How did decisions made by governing parties in Egypt and Tunisia affect
the course of uprisings there? 73
Why did the Egyptian military overthrow the Muslim Brotherhood
government? 75
Do events in Egypt demonstrate that Islamist parties are incapable
of rule? 79
What was political life in Egypt like after the military takeover? 81
How does the Egyptian uprising help us understand the other
uprisings? 82
What are the five biggest myths about the Egyptian uprising? 84
3 Uprisings in Weak States: Yemen and Libya 86
What did the political systems of Yemen and Libya have in common
before the uprisings? 86
What was political life in Yemen like before the uprising there? 86
What was political life in Libya like before the uprising there? 89
Why do political scientists consider Yemen and Libya “weak states”? 92
Why is the fact that Yemen and Libya are weak states important for
understanding the uprisings there? 96
What role have tribes played in Yemen and Libya? 96
How did the uprising in Yemen evolve? 97
How did the uprising in Libya begin? 100
Was Qaddafi crazy, or crazy like a fox? 101
Why did the uprisings in Yemen and Libya turn violent? 102
Why did outside powers intervene in Libya? 103
What is “R2P”? 105
Why did efforts to fill the post-uprisings political void in Yemen
and Libya flounder? 106
What are the fissures that might divide Yemen in the future? 109
Is civil war in Libya in the cards? 111
Why is al-Qaeda in Yemen? 112
viii CONTENTS
Is al-Qaeda in Libya? 113
How did Libya affect American and Russian policy in Syria? 114
4 “Coup-Proofed”: Bahrain and Syria 116
What do Bahrain and Syria have in common? 116
What is “coup-proofing”? 119
Why did Bahrain’s February protests end so tragically? 122
What occurred in Bahrain in the wake of the crackdown? 124
How did the uprising in Syria begin? 126
Who is Bashar al-Assad? 128
How did the Syrian regime deal with the uprising? 128
How did the regime sectarianize the uprising? 130
How did the regime militarize the uprising? 131
Who is the “moderate opposition” in Syria? 132
What is the Islamist opposition in Syria like? 135
What is the “Islamic State”? 136
Have Syria’s Kurds participated in the uprising? 140
What assistance has the Friends of Syria provided? 141
How have foreign powers intervened on the side of the Syrian
government? 143
How has the uprising affected Syrians and Syrian society? 146
How has the Syrian uprising affected Syria’s neighbors? 148
Why is a negotiated settlement for Syria improbable? 151
5 The Regional and Global Meanings
of the Arab Uprisings 155
Did the Arab monarchies dodge the bullet during the uprisings? 155
What were the protests in the monarchies like? 157
What role have the Gulf monarchies played in uprisings elsewhere? 160
Contents ix
Why have the Gulf monarchies played such a prominent role in the
uprisings? 161
Is American power in the Middle East on the wane? 164
How has the United States reacted to the Arab uprisings? 166
Did George W. Bush’s “Freedom Agenda” pave the way for the Arab
uprisings? 170
Have the uprisings strengthened or weakened al-Qaeda? 172
Will the state system in the Arab world survive the Arab uprisings? 175
How did the spread of the uprisings to Palestine affect the
Israeli-Palestinian conflict? 178
What can history tell us about “revolutionary waves”? 180
Have the uprisings spread beyond the Arab world? 182
When will we be able to judge the significance of the Arab uprisings? 184
What conclusions might we draw from the uprisings so far? 185
NOTES 187
FURTHER READING 191
WEBSITES 193
INDEX 195