The Arab Spring five years later: Toward Greater Inclusiveness

461 Pages·2016·30.97 MB·English

by  Hafez Ghanem

6 × 9 SPINE: 1.0938 FLAPS: 0
f
t
i
h
t v
his second volume of The Arab Spring Five Years Later provides e e
the original research papers on which volume 1 by Hafez Ghanem is
based. In this edited volume, Ghanem assembles a collection of im- y a Volume Two
r
e
portant research conducted by scholars from a variety of backgrounds
a
a
to provide a deeper understanding of the economic factors that led to
b
r
the Arab Spring. Chapters examine women’s issues and agricultural

practices in Morocco; urban transportation, small enterprises, gover- s s
nance, and inclusive planning in Egypt; reconstruction in Iraq; youth l p
r
employment in Tunisia; education in Yemen; and more. a
i
t
In addition to Hafez Ghanem, contributors include Mongi Boughzala n
e
(University of Tunis ElManar, Tunisia), Emmanuel Comolet (French g t h e a r ab s pri n g
r
Agency for Development), Mohamed Tlili Hamdi (University of
Sfax, Tunisia), Seiki Tanaka (University of Amsterdam), and from the
Japan International Cooperation Agency (JICA), Yuriko Kameyama, fi v e y e a r s l at e r
Mayada Magdy, Hideki Matsunaga, Yuko Morikawa, Akira Murata, V
o
Kei Sakamoto, Masanori Yoshikawa, and Takako Yuki.
l
u
m
hafez ghanem is vice president for the Middle East and e Case studies

T
North Africa at the World Bank and a nonresident senior fellow in
w
Global Economy and Development at the Brookings Institution. He is o
a former assistant director general of the UN’s Food and Agriculture
Organization and a former country director at the World Bank. He is
coauthor of After the Spring: Economic Transitions in the Arab World g
and author of numerous articles on Arab economies. h
a
n
Cover design by Ann Weinstock e
m
h afe z g h a n e m
BROOKINGS INSTITUTION PRESS
, e ditor
Washington, D.C.
www.brookings.edu/press
ArabSpringVolume2MECHb.indd 1 11/17/15 2:06 PM
The Arab Spring
Five Years Later
Ghanem_Arab Spring V2_i-xvi_1-444_final.indd 1 11/20/15 2:47 PM
Ghanem_Arab Spring V2_i-xvi_1-444_final.indd 2 11/20/15 2:47 PM
The Arab Spring
Five Years Later
Volume 2
Case Studies
Hafez Ghanem
Editor
Brookings Institution Press
Washington, D.C.
Ghanem_Arab Spring V2_i-xvi_1-444_final.indd 3 11/20/15 2:47 PM
Copyright © 2016
THE BROOKINGS INSTITUTION
1775 Massachusetts Avenue, N.W., Washington, D.C. 20036
www.brookings.edu
All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced or transmitted
in any form or by any means without permission in writing from the Brookings
Institution Press.
The Brookings Institution is a private nonprofit organization devoted to research,
education, and publication on important issues of domestic and foreign policy. Its
principal purpose is to bring the highest quality independent research and analysis
to bear on current and emerging policy problems. Interpretations or conclusions in
Brookings publications should be understood to be solely those of the authors.
Volume 1 has been cataloged by the Library of Congress as follows:
Names: Ghanem, Hafez, author.
Title: The Arab Spring five years later : toward greater inclusiveness /
Hafez Ghanem.
Description: Washington, D.C. : Brookings Institution Press, [2016– ] |
Includes bibliographical references and index. | Description based on
print version record and CIP data provided by publisher; resource not
viewed.
Identifiers: LCCN 2015045078 (print) | LCCN 2015040104 (ebook) | ISBN
9780815727194 (epub) | ISBN 9780815727200 (pdf) | ISBN 9780815727187 (pbk.
: alk. paper)
Subjects: LCSH: Arab Spring, 2010– | Arab countries—History—21st century.
Classification: LCC JQ1850.A91 (print) | LCC JQ1850.A91 G432 2016 (ebook) |
DDC 909/.097492708312—dc23
LC record available at http://lccn.loc.gov/2015045078
9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1
Typeset in Sabon and Myriad Pro
Composition by Cynthia Stock
Silver Spring, Maryland
Ghanem_Arab Spring V2_i-xvi_1-444_final.indd 4 11/24/15 5:03 PM
Contents
Preface vii
Acknowledgments xiii
1
Egypt’s Difficult Transition: Options for the
International Community 1
Hafez Ghanem
2
Introducing Inclusive Planning in Egypt 48
Kei Sakamoto
3
Establishing Good Governance in Fragile States
through Reconstruction Projects: Lessons from Iraq 82
Seiki Tanaka and Masanori Yoshikawa
4
How to Fill the Implementation Gap for Inclusive Growth:
Case Studies Covering Urban Transportation Sector 106
Development in Egypt
Hideki Matsunaga and Mayada Magdy
5
Youth Employment and Economic Transition in Tunisia 153
Mongi Boughzala
6
The Role of Micro and Small Enterprises in Egypt’s
Economic Transition 177
Hafez Ghanem
7
Jordan: The Geopolitical Service Provider 207
Emmanuel Comolet
8
The Opportunities for and Challenges to Female Labor
Force Participation in Morocco 240
Yuko Morikawa
9
Designing Youth Employment Policies in Egypt 286
Akira Murata
v
Ghanem_Arab Spring V2_i-xvi_1-444_final.indd 5 11/20/15 2:47 PM
vi
10
Improving Regional and Rural Development for Inclusive
Growth in Egypt 313
Hafez Ghanem
11
Promoting Inclusive Growth in Arab Countries: Rural
and Regional Development and Inequality in Tunisia 333
Mongi Boughzala and Mohamed Tlili Hamdi
12
Agriculture and Rural Development for Inclusive Growth
and Food Security in Morocco 371
Hafez Ghanem
13
Improving the Quality of Basic Education in Yemen
for Youth in the Future 395
Takako Yuki and Yuriko Kameyama
Contributors 429
Index 431
Ghanem_Arab Spring V2_i-xvi_1-444_final.indd 6 11/20/15 2:47 PM
Preface
The Arab revolutions of 2010–11 were earth-shaking events that com-
pletely changed the sociopolitical landscape in this part of the world.
Of course what happens in the Arab world has an impact on the rest of
humanity through variables such as oil prices, migration, and violence.
Therefore, in March 2012 a group of Brookings scholars published
a monograph entitled After the Spring: Economic Transitions in the
Arab World. There we argued that the Arab transition to democracy
will be long and tortuous with many twists and turns along the way.
We said that successful economic transition is necessary for a suc-
cessful political transition. Specifically, we concluded that four main
economic transitions—each with its own short- and long-term strate-
gies—are needed in the region. These include: (1) expanding opportu-
nities for young people; (2) building a modern state; (3) transforming
the private sector; and (4) expanding global and regional integration.
The research carried out at the Brookings Institution emphasized
that these transitions must be addressed in a holistic way by fram-
ing a broad, long-term economic strategy to create expectations that
growth, fairness, equity, and economic justice will play major roles in
the transition to a new economy.
It was clear that the Arab countries in transition were at a critical
juncture. The two or three years following the eruption of the Arab
Spring would determine whether they would move to an “inclusive”
political and economic system that fosters growth and social develop-
ment, or revert back to an “extractive” system, where elites appropri-
ate rents and power and exclude the majority of the population from
participation in decisionmaking and from sharing economic benefits.
vii
Ghanem_Arab Spring V2_i-xvi_1-444_final.indd 7 11/20/15 2:47 PM
viii Preface
Or even worse, would they disintegrate into little quasi-states based on
ethnic or sectarian affiliation and descend into a spiral of civil war and
violent extremism.
The period of euphoria and optimism about the future that imme-
diately followed the revolutions quickly came to an end. Arab Spring
countries had to deal with the serious issues of agreeing on a vision for
a new society and building the institutions necessary for implementing
this vision. This required different political factions to make compro-
mises in order to reach a national consensus, a difficult challenge for
societies that have a limited culture of democracy and very little expe-
rience with democratic processes.
In this context, the Japan International Cooperation Agency (JICA)
and the Brookings Institution initiated a three-year (2012–15) aca-
demic research program on Arab economies. In spite of respectable
economic growth between 2000 and 2010 in Egypt and Tunisia,
opinion polls showed increasing popular dissatisfaction and unhappi-
ness. Thus, our initial research (carried out in 2011–12) concluded that
this was probably because growth was not inclusive. Vast segments of
society saw a small elite reap most of the benefits of growth while they
got very little or nothing at all. It seemed clear to us at the time that
moving toward greater social justice and economic inclusion was a
prerequisite for successful democratization. That is why our research
focused on the question of how to achieve inclusive economic growth
in the Arab world.
We had three objectives:
—raise awareness in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) of
the importance of inclusive economic policies to provide opportunities
for youth, reduce gender bias, and develop lagging rural areas, and
start a debate on the subject of inclusiveness with academics, civil soci-
ety, and thought leaders;
—provide policymakers in MENA with a menu of options that can
be used to achieve growth that ensures equity and broad participation,
particularly for young men and women; and
—better inform donor agencies of opportunities to develop grass-
roots programs and promote inclusive growth.
Which populations suffer most from economic exclusion in the Arab
world? We identified three groups: (1) youth who feel economically
Ghanem_Arab Spring V2_i-xvi_1-444_final.indd 8 11/20/15 2:47 PM
Preface ix
and socially marginalized; (2) women (especially young women) who
receive education, but face huge constraints to participating in the
economic life; and (3) inhabitants of lagging regions (for example,
Western Tunisia or Upper Egypt) who are usually dependent on low-
productivity agriculture and have limited access to social and physical
infrastructure.
But achieving inclusive (or shared) growth requires inclusive institu-
tions. How can you achieve inclusion and social justice without hear-
ing the voices of those you want to include? Hence, institutional and
governance reforms that aim at providing voice to youth, women, and
inhabitants of lagging regions need to be at the center of any economic
reform agenda in the Arab world. In addition to providing voice, gover-
nance reforms need to aim at rendering decisionmaking processes more
transparent and government officials more accountable.
Economic and political stability in the Arab world is a global public
good, and the international community can support inclusive growth
in MENA through economic and financial aid, foreign direct invest-
ment, technical assistance, and the free movement of goods and peo-
ple. But donors also face financial and political constraints. Hence it is
important to identify priority areas and approaches for international
economic intervention that would have the greatest impact.
The joint research program produced papers (presented in this vol-
ume) covering all of the subjects identified as key for inclusive growth in
the Arab world: (1) youth inclusion through entrepreneurship and edu-
cation reforms; (2) governance reforms for more inclusive decisionmak-
ing and effective implementation of policies, programs, and projects;
(3) development of lagging regions and support for smallholder and
family farmers; (4) gender policies and the empowerment of women;
and (5) international cooperation and the role of donors in a fragile and
unstable environment.
Two points are worth noting. First, this is a truly collaborative,
scholarly effort between JICA and Brookings. It is not a typical
donor-researcher program. While Brookings experts provided overall
direction, quality assurance, and peer review, most of the papers pre-
sented here were produced by JICA researchers and experts. Second,
the approach adopted in this research is based on country case studies,
focusing on Egypt, Iraq, Jordan, Morocco, Tunisia, and Yemen. The
Ghanem_Arab Spring V2_i-xvi_1-444_final.indd 9 11/20/15 2:47 PM