Systemic Earthquake and the Struggle for World Order: Exclusive Populism versus Inclusive Democracy

331 Pages·2020·1.685 MB·English

by  Ahmet Davutoğlu, Andrew Boord, Richard Falk

Systemic Earthquake and the Struggle for World Order
Using the analogy of a devastating series of earthquakes, Davutoğlu pro-
videsanewtheoreticalapproach,conceptualization,andmethodologyfor
understandingcrisisin thepost-Cold Warera.
In order to grasp the scale and scope of the ongoing crises we are
experiencing today, Davutoğlu conceptualizes them as “aftershocks,”
following in the wake of the four great “quakes” that have shaken the
world in recent times – namely, the geopolitical earthquake triggered by
dissolution of the Soviet Union, 1991; the security earthquake, post 9/11,
2001;theeconomicearthquakeassociatedwiththeglobaleconomiccrisis,
2008;andthestructuralearthquakeoftheArabSpring,2011.Bycontext-
ualizinginternational orderasbeingimpactedbyanumberofintertwined
processes,thebookthenlookstothepossiblefuturesahead.Followinghis
analysisoftheongoingsystemiccrisis,Davutoğluforgesavisionforanew
order of global democracy, built from the rubble of the systemic
earthquake.
ProfessorAhmetDavutoğluservedasthePrimeMinisterofthe62nd,63rd,
and 64th governments of the Republic of Turkey. Prior to this, he was
Chief Foreign Policy Advisor to the Prime Minister, and Minister of
ForeignAffairs.Inhisacademiccareer,hehasheldthepositionofprofessor
at Marmara and Beykent Universities, Turkey, and the International
Islamic University of Malaysia. He is author of many books including
Alternative Paradigms, Civilizational Transformation and the Muslim
World, and Stratejik Derinlik: Türkiye’nin Uluslararası Konumu. He has
receivedseveralawards,includingtheWoodrowWilsonAwardforPublic
Servicein2010.HewasnamedasoneoftheTop100GlobalThinkersby
Foreign Policy magazine in 2010, 2011, and 2012, and as one of the 100
Most Influential Peoplein the World by Time magazine in 2012.
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Systemic Earthquake
and the Struggle for
World Order
Exclusive Populism versus
Inclusive Democracy
Ahmet Davutoğlu
Former Prime Minister of Turkey
Professor of Political Science and International Relations
English translation by Andrew Boord
Foreword by Richard Falk
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of use, available at https://www.cambridge.org/core/terms. https://doi.org/10.1017/9781108751643
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To victims of World (Dis)Order
in every corner of the Earth
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CONTENTS
Foreword xi
Acknowledgments xx
List of Abbreviations xxii
Introduction: Conceptual and Methodological Framework 1
FromUtopicOptimismtoNihilisticPessimism:
APsycho-MethodologicalDilemma 1
AnAlternativeApproach:RealisticOptimism 4
TheEarthquakeAnalogy:AConceptualizationof(Dis)Order 6
AnalysisoftheOrder–ChangeDialectic 7
EarthquakePsychologyReflections 10
Part I Systemic Earthquake: Analysis and Consequences
of World (Dis)Order
1 Traditional, Modern, and Global “World Orders”:
A Historical Perspective 17
TheTraditionalWorldOrder 18
TheModernWorldOrder 22
TheThirtyYearsWarandtheWestphalianOrder:The
Emergenceofthe“Nation-State”System 23
TheNapoleonicWarsandtheCongressofVienna:The
Emergenceofthe“BalanceofPower” 24
TheFirstWorldWarandtheLeagueofNations:TheInterwar
EraasaHistoricalExperienceof“SystemicEarthquake” 28
TheSecondWorldWarandtheUNSystem:International
OrderundertheShadowoftheBipolarColdWar 32
Globalization:ThePost-ColdWarEraandtheSearchfora
NewWorldOrder 34
TheCurrentSystemicEarthquake:RecurrenceofHistory? 43
2 The Roots of World (Dis)Order: Geopolitical, Security,
Economic, and Structural Earthquakes in the Post-Cold
War Era 46
GeopoliticalEarthquake(1991) 46
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viii / Contents
SecurityEarthquake(2001) 50
EconomicEarthquake(2008) 54
StructuralEarthquake(2011) 60
3 Systemic Earthquake: Fragile National, Regional, and
Global Structures 68
TheNationalDimensionoftheSystemicEarthquake:Fragilityin
Nation-StateStructures 69
TheRegionalDimensionoftheSystemicEarthquake:Domino
EffectsandFragileRegionalBalances 76
TheGlobalDimensionoftheSystemicEarthquake:
TheIneffectivenessandFragilityoftheUNSystem 84
4 Systemic Earthquake: Global Powers and the “Multiple
Balances of Power” System 88
USStrategicDiscontinuity:From“NewWorldOrder”to
“AmericaFirst” 89
TheEuropeanUnion:FromSuccessStorytoStrategic
Ambivalence? 103
Russia:ChallengesofReconsolidatingPower 115
China:TheBalancebetweenEconomicPoweranda
GlobalRole 122
Part II A New Vision: Inclusive Governance
5 Future Projections and Basic Principles of a New Order of
Inclusive Governance: The Five I’s 131
AlternativeFutureProjections:PossibilitiesandIdeals 131
BasicPrinciples:TheFiveI’s 133
Inclusiveness 133
InternalConsistency 136
InterestOptimization 138
ImplementationofthePowerStructure 143
Institutionalization 145
6 Inclusive National Governance: From Survival
to Sustainability 149
TheHumanComponentofNationalOrder:Culturaland
PoliticalBelonging 153
ModernityandIdentity 155
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ix / Contents
DifferentNation-StateExperiencesandaTestofInclusive
Citizenship 160
TheGeographicElementofNationalOrder:Geopolitics 166
TheLegitimacyElementofNationalOrder:TheFreedom–Security
BalanceandJustice 173
TheEconomicComponentofNationalOrder:Welfareand
IncomeJustice 176
TheOrganicElementofNationalOrder:Institutionalizationand
StructuralHarmony 181
7 Inclusive Regional Governance: From Regional Cold Wars to
Regional Orders 188
RegionalInitiatives:LessonsandChallenges 192
RegionalInitiative/ThePlatformforIraqiNeighbors 192
Syria–IsraelPeaceTalks 193
TheIranNuclearProgramandtheTehranAgreement 195
LessonsforFutureRegionalInitiatives 197
RegionalOrderandthePrincipalElementsofStability 200
SharedDestiny/CommonSecurity 202
High-LevelPoliticalDialogue 206
EconomicInterdependence 211
CulturalPluralismandCoexistence 216
IsanActionPlanforRegionalOrderintheMiddleEast
Possible? 220
8 Inclusive Global Governance: A New Paradigm of
Global Order 224
GlobalPoliticalOrder 225
TheUncertaintyofMultipleBalancesofPower 227
AnUrgentActionPlan:ShockTherapyfor
theInternationalSystem 229
TheUNReformProcess:MethodologicalDilemmas 231
ThePossibilityofaResult-OrientedUNReformProcess 233
TheGlobalEconomicOrder 238
TheGlobalCulturalOrder 245
Notes 254
Bibliography 273
Index 288
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