Sources of Power: How People Make Decisions

339 Pages·2017·2.5 MB·English

by  Gary A. Klein

Sources of Power
How People Make Decisions
20th Anniversary Edition
Gary Klein

The MIT Press
Cambridge, Massachusetts
London, England
First MIT Press paperback edition, 1999
© 1998 Massachusetts Institute of Technology All rights reserved. No part of this book may be
reproduced in any form by any electronic or mechanical means (including photocopying, recording, or
information storage and retrieval) without permission in writing from the publisher.
This book was set in Sabon LT Std by Toppan Best-set Premedia Limited. Printed and bound in the
United States of America.
Printed and bound in the United States of America.
Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data Names: Klein, Gary A., author.
Title: Sources of power : how people make decisions / Gary Klein.
Description: 20th Anniversary Edition. | Cambridge, MA : MIT Press, [2017] |
Revised edition of the author's Sources of power, c1998. | Includes bibliographical references and index.
Identifiers: LCCN 2017006485 | ISBN 9780262534291 (pbk. : alk. paper) eISBN 9780262343237
Subjects: LCSH: Decision making.
Classification: LCC HD30.23 .K456 2017 | DDC 658.4/03--dc23 LC record available at
https://lccn.loc.gov/2017006485
ePub Version 1.0
For
Helen Gail
Devorah
Rebecca
Table of Contents
Title page
Copyright page
Dedication
Examples
Figures
Tables
Acknowledgments
Introduction
1 Chronicling the Strengths Used in Making Difficult Decisions
2 Learning from the Firefighters
3 The Recognition-Primed Decision Model
4 The Power of Intuition
5 The Power of Mental Simulation
6 The Vincennes Shootdown
7 Mental Simulation and Decision Making
8 The Power to Spot Leverage Points
9 Nonlinear Aspects of Problem Solving
10 The Power to See the Invisible
11 The Power of Stories
12 The Power of Metaphors and Analogues
13 The Power to Read Minds
14 The Power of the Team Mind
15 The Power of Rational Analysis and the Problem of Hyperrationality
16 Why Good People Make Poor Decisions
17 Conclusions
References
Index
List of Tables
Table 3.1 Categories of the Decisions Studied
Table 6.1 The Vincennes Shootdown: Story Discrepancies
Table 7.1 Boundary Conditions for Different Decision Strategies
Table 7.2 Frequency of RPD Strategies across Domains
Table 10.1 Aspects of Knowledge Engineering
Table 13.1 Functions of Communicating Intent
List of Illustrations
Figure 3.1 Recognition-primed decision model
Figure 3.2 Integrated version of recognition-primed decision model
Figure 5.1 Truck levitation
Figure 5.2 Transition sequence
Figure 5.3 Generic model of mental simulation
Figure 5.4 Using mental simulation to generate an explanation
Figure 5.5 Using mental simulation to project into the future
Figure 5.6 Track lines of Trademaster and Pisces
Figure 6.1 The harassing F-4s: How the situation was perceived as it evolved
Figure 6.2 Map detail of the Vincennes incident
Figure 7.1 Integrated version of recognition-primed decision model
Figure 9.1 Nonlinear account of problem solving
Figure 10.1 Average move quality of masters and class B players, regulation
and blitz rules
Figure 10.2 Poor moves for masters and class B players, regulation and blitz
rules
Figure 10.3 Quality ratings of first moves and all legal moves
Figure 10.4 Objective evaluation of the first chess move generated
Figure 11.1 Finding the hidden restriction in the misleading manuals
Figure 14.1 Advanced team decision-making model
Figure 16.1 How uncertainty leads to doubt
Figure 17.1 Sources of power
Examples
1.1 The Torn Artery
2.1 The Falling Billboards
3.1 The Laundry Chute Fire
3.2 The Overpass Rescue
3.3 The Christmas Fire
4.1 The Sixth Sense
4.2 The Mystery of the HMS Gloucester 5.1 The Car Rescue
5.2 The Libyan Airliner
5.3 The IRA Terrorist
5.4 The Trademaster and the Pisces 5.5 The Disoriented Physicists 6.1 The
Circling F-4s
6.2 The Flight of the Airbus
7.1 The Denver Bullets
7.2 The AWACS Weapons Directors 8.1 Bubbling with Life
8.2 Holding Firm
8.3 The Impossible Crossing Points 8.4 The Flight to Philadelphia 9.1 Learning
to Love Telemarketing 9.2 DONALD + GERALD = ROBERT
10.1 The Instructors Who Couldn’t Save Their Own Lives 10.2 Recipe for
Disaster
11.1 The Case of the Infant Whose Heart Wasn't Beating Eighty Times a Minute
11.2 The Magic Bullet
11.3 The Case of the Seasonal Short 11.4 The Misleading Manuals
11.5 The Case of the Mangled Proceedings 12.1 Sizing Up the Ducts
12.2 Pressurizing the Hydraulic System 12.3 Rejecting an Analogue That Is
Identical 12.4 Predicting the Attendance at a Movie Theater 12.5 A Case Where
AWACS Was the Wrong Analogue 12.6 Bidder’s Associate
13.1 The Escape of the Goeben 13.2 Combat Inside the Cockpit 13.3 The Fatal
Tug-of-War
13.4 My Safety Net
13.5 Marvin's Mouse
13.6 The Soldiers Who Were Trained Not to Follow Orders 13.7 The Flight
Mismanagement System 14.1 The Case of the De-Generators 14.2 The Best
Mismanagement System 14.1 The Case of the De-Generators 14.2 The Best
Teams: Wildland Firefighters 14.3 The Reaction Time of a Crisis Management
Team 14.4 The Crisis Manager Who Became Less Than a Secretary 14.5 The
Firefighters Who Realized They Weren't Supposed to Fight Fires 14.6 The Crisis
Management Team That Loved to Caucus 14.7 The Leader Who Vanished
14.8 The Illusion of Rationality 15.1 The Case of the Missing Contact Lens 16.1
The Missed Diagnosis
Figures
3.1 Recognition-Primed Decision Model 3.2 Integrated Version of Recognition-
Primed Decision Model 5.1 Truck Levitation
5.2 Transition Sequence
5.3 Generic Model of Mental Simulation 5.4 Using Mental Simulation to
Generate an Explanation 5.5 Using Mental Simulation to Project into the Future
5.6 Track Lines of Trademaster and Pisces 6.1 The Harassing F-4s: How the
Situation Was Perceived as It Evolved 6.2 Map Detail of the Vincennes Incident
7.1 Integrated Version of Recognition-Primed Decision Model 9.1 Nonlinear
Account of Problem Solving 10.1 Average Move Quality of Masters and Class B
Players, Regulation and Blitz Rules 10.2 Poor Moves for Masters and Class B
Players, Regulation and Blitz Rules 10.3 Quality Ratings of First Moves and All
Legal Moves 10.4 Objective Evaluation of the First Chess Move Generated 11.1
Finding the Hidden Restriction in the Misleading Manuals 14.1 Advanced Team
Decision-Making Model 16.1 How Uncertainty Leads to Doubt
17.1 Sources of Power