Sea Ice in the Arctic: Past, Present and Future

579 Pages·2020·30.51 MB·English

by  Ola M. Johannessen, Leonid P. Bobylev, Elena V. Shalina, Stein Sandven

Springer Polar Sciences
Ola M. Johannessen
Leonid P. Bobylev
Elena V. Shalina
Stein Sandven Editors
Sea Ice in
the Arctic
Past, Present and Future
Springer Polar Sciences
Serieseditor
JamesFord,PriestleyInternationalCentreforClimate,UniversityofLeeds,Leeds,
WestYorkshire,UK
SpringerPolarSciences
Springer Polar Sciences is an interdisciplinary book series that is dedicated to
research in the Arctic, sub-Arctic regions, and the Antarctic. In recent years, the
polarregionshavereceivedincreasedscientificandpublicinterest.BoththeArctic
and Antarctic have been recognized as key regions in the regulation of the global
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theongoingenvironmentalchanges.Consequently,theinternationaleffortsinpolar
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Moreinformationaboutthisseriesathttp://www.springer.com/series/15180
(cid:129)
Ola M. Johannessen Leonid P. Bobylev
(cid:129)
Elena V. Shalina Stein Sandven
Editors
Sea Ice in the Arctic
Past, Present and Future
Editors
OlaM.Johannessen LeonidP.Bobylev
NansenScientificSociety NansenInternationalEnvironmentaland
Bergen,Norway RemoteSensingCentre(NIERSC)
SaintPetersburg,Russia
ElenaV.Shalina SteinSandven
NansenInternationalEnvironmentaland NansenEnvironmentalandRemote
RemoteSensingCentre(NIERSC)and SensingCenter
SaintPetersburgStateUniversity Bergen,Norway
SaintPetersburg,Russia
UniversityCentreinSvalbard
Longyearbyen,Svalbard,Norway
ISSN2510-0475 ISSN2510-0483 (electronic)
SpringerPolarSciences
ISBN978-3-030-21300-8 ISBN978-3-030-21301-5 (eBook)
https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-21301-5
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Foreword
Sea ice is recognised to have a significant influence on global climate. It has an
impactontheheatexchangebetweentheoceanandatmosphere,acriticalinfluence
on the high-latitude atmosphere and freshwater balance, and an essential role in
regulatingtheglobalthermohalinecirculation.“WhathappensintheArcticdoesn’t
stayintheArctic”hasbecomeanimportantcatchphrase.
ThelossofseaiceisjustoneeffectoftheincreasinglywarmerArctic,whichis
warmingataratetwotothreetimesfasterthantherestoftheplanetonaverage.The
changeintemperaturesatthepolescanhaveamajoreffectonallpartsoftheglobe
becauseoftheinterconnectednatureofEarth’sclimatesystem.
Againstthisbackdrop,thebookSeaIceintheArctic:Past,PresentandFuture,
edited by Ola M. Johannessen and colleagues, provides essential information and
assessesthecurrentsituationofArcticseaice.Sketchingoutthelong-termperspec-
tive, the book treats a wide range of relevant topics. For example, it discusses the
reconstruction of paleo-records (spanning a reference frame for the exceptional
nature of today’s changes), highlights more recent observations and methods
(including measurements from space), and touches upon future trends like the use
ofartificialintelligenceinseaiceclassificationandcorollaryeffectsliketheimpact
ofclimatechangeontheArcticeconomy.
The European Space Agency (ESA) hasbeen addressing Arctic sea ice through
variousprojectsliketheClimateChangeInitiative(CCI),whichfeaturesseaiceas
anEssentialClimateVariable(ECV),andthroughseaicemonitoringdatasetsfrom
CryoSat, SMOS, Sentinel-1, and Sentinel-3. They are fundamental to data assimi-
lation into coupled models and for delivering operational services through the
CopernicusMarineEnvironmentMonitoringService(CMEMS).
TheESAremainscommittedtocontinueitsendeavoursinthisregard,astheneed
for sustained sea ice and ocean data sets in theArctic is recognised by Copernicus
users. Three relevant Copernicus Sentinel high-priority candidate missions are
currentlybeing studied: animaging passivemicrowavemission(for iceconcentra-
tion),apolariceandsnowtopographymission(forseaicethickness),andanL-band
syntheticapertureradar(SAR)missionasacomplementtoSentinel-1.
v
vi Foreword
ESA’s activities in the domain of Arctic sea ice are just one element of a wide-
scaleefforttomonitorandprotectourplanetEarthforfuturegenerations–aglobal
endeavour by nature – requiring a holistic societal approach. This book is an
important element of this endeavour, raising awareness, informing public debate,
andsketchingawayforwardtotacklethestrategictopicofArcticseaice.
DirectorofEarthObservationProgrammes JosefAschbacher
EuropeanSpaceAgency
Frascati,Italy
Contents
1 Introduction. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1
OlaM.Johannessen
2 SeaIceintheArcticPaleoenvironments. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9
LeonidP.BobylevandMartinW.Miles
3 MarginalIceZoneandIce-Air-OceanInteractions. . . . . . . . . . . . . 57
OlaM.Johannessen,SteinSandven,RichardDavy,
andEinarO.Olason
4 ChangesinArcticSeaIceCoverintheTwentieth
andTwenty-FirstCenturies. . . . . . . . .. . . . . . . . . .. . . . . . . . . . .. 93
ElenaV.Shalina,OlaM.Johannessen,andSteinSandven
5 ArcticSeaIceThicknessandVolumeTransformation. . . . . . . . . . 167
ElenaV.Shalina,KirillKhvorostovsky,andSteinSandven
6 SARSeaIceTypeClassificationandDriftRetrieval
intheArctic. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 247
NataliaY.Zakhvatkina,DenisDemchev,SteinSandven,
VladimirA.Volkov,andAlexanderS.Komarov
7 SeaIceDriftintheArctic. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 301
VladimirA.Volkov,AlexandraMushta,andDenisDemchev
8 SeaIceModelling. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 315
MattiLeppäranta,ValentinP.Meleshko,PetteriUotila,
andTatianaPavlova
9 OperationalForecastingofSeaIceintheArcticUsingTOPAZ
System. . . . . .. . . . . . . .. . . . . . . .. . . . . . . .. . . . . . . .. . . . . . . .. 389
LaurentBertinoandJipingXie
vii
viii Contents
10 CurrentandProjectedSeaIceintheArcticintheTwenty-First
Century. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 399
ValentinP.Meleshko,TatianaPavlova,LeonidP.Bobylev,
andPavelGolubkin
11 ClimateChangeImpactontheArcticEconomy. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 465
LasseH.Pettersson,AntonG.Kjelaas,DmitryV.Kovalevsky,
andKlausHasselmann
12 Annex:SARSeaIceInterpretationGuide. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 507
OlaM.Johannessen
Afterword. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .. . . 575
OlaM.Johannessen
Contributors
Laurent Bertino Nansen Environmental and Remote Sensing Center, Bergen,
Norway
Leonid P. Bobylev Nansen International Environmental and Remote Sensing
Centre(NIERSC),SaintPetersburg,Russia
Richard Davy Nansen Environmental and Remote Sensing Center, Bergen,
Norway
DenisDemchev ArcticandAntarcticResearchInstitute,SaintPetersburg,Russia
NansenInternationalEnvironmentalandRemoteSensingCentre,SaintPetersburg,
Russia
PavelGolubkin NansenInternationalEnvironmentalandRemoteSensingCentre,
SaintPetersburg,Russia
KlausHasselmann MaxPlanckInstituteforMeteorology,Hamburg,Germany
OlaM.Johannessen NansenScientificSociety(NSS),Bergen,Norway
Kirill Khvorostovsky Russian State Hydrometeorological University, Saint
Petersburg,Russia
Anton G. Kjelaas Norwegian Scientific Academy for Polar Research,
Nesoddtangen,Norway
Alexander S. Komarov Environment and Climate Change Canada, Ottawa, ON,
Canada
Dmitry V. Kovalevsky Climate Service Center Germany (GERICS), Helmholtz-
Zentrum,Geesthacht,Germany
MattiLeppäranta InstituteforAtmosphericandEarthSystemResearch(INAR),
UniversityofHelsinki,Helsinki,Finland
ix