Table Of ContentShould Dying Patients Get Unproved Drugs? (page 92)
Saving
Nature That
WORKS FOR
PEOPLE
page 50
October 2007 www.SciAm.com
S P E C I A L R E P O R T
The Future of
EXPLORING
SPACE
• A Preview of the Orion Spaceship
• 5 Essential Things to Do Up There
Consciousness
Scientists Debate How
Neurons Make Us Aware
Diamond Chips
Sparkling Processors
Spin Quantum Logic
Diagnosis to Go
New Portable Microlabs
© 2007 SCIENTIFIC AMERICAN, INC.
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FEATURES ■
SCIENTIFIC AMERICAN October 2007 ■ Volume 297 Number 4
S PEC I A L R EPORT
T he Future of Space Exploration
By Steven Ashley and George Musser
60 The launch of the
Soviet Sputnik
satellite half a 62 T o the Moon and Beyond
century ago By Charles Dingell, William A. Johns
inaugurated and Julie Kramer White
the Space Age. Humans are returning to the moon. This time
What comes next? the plan is to stay a while.
69 F ive Essential Things
to Do in Space
By George Musser
Planetary scientists have a quintet of goals
for exploring the solar system.
ENVIRONMENT
50 C onservation for the People
69
By Peter Kareiva and Michelle Marvier
Pitting nature and biodiversity against people
makes little sense. Many conservationists now
argue that human health and well-being should
be central to conservation efforts.
DEBATE
50
76 H ow Does Consciousness
Happen?
By Christof Koch and Susan Greenfi eld
One of the greatest mysteries in science is how 76 84
brain activity gives rise to subjective experience.
Two leading neuroscientists compare their
differing theories.
PHYSICS
84 T he Diamond Age
of Spintronics
By David D. Awschalom, Ryan Epstein
and Ronald Hanson
Revolutionary electronic devices can harness the ON THE COVER
spins of electrons instead of their charge. Such devices The sun peeks over the dark disk of Mars, as seen
might one day enable room-temperature quantum from the moon Phobos, in this illustration by artist
computers—made of diamond. and author Ron Miller.
w w w. Sc iAm.com SC IE NTIF IC AMERIC AN 3
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MORE FEATURES ■
MEDICINE
92 E xperimental Drugs
92 100
on Trial
by Beryl Lieff Benderly
A controversial lawsuit challenges the FDA’s system
of controlling access to experimental drugs and, some
say, the scientifi c basis of drug approval.
INNOVATIONS
100 Big Lab on a Tiny Chip
By Charles Q. Choi
Squeezing a chemistry lab down to fi ngernail
size could provide instant medical tests at home
and on the battlefi eld. Yes or No?
Tell us whether patients should have the right to demand experi-
mental medications. Go to www.SciAm.com/ontheweb
SCIAM.COM
GENES FOR ANTIBIOTIC RESISTANCE Ç 8 In Focus
(below) can spread through a population of bacteria Falcons, Ferrets and Forests Benefit
from Preservation Efforts
when individuals swap DNA. An already approved drug
Modern conservation projects deliver
can stop this process and could help prolong the useful measurable effects, from rebounding
life of existing antibiotics. ferret populations to less destructive
logging in the Peruvian Amazon.
8 News
What Explains Toddlers’ Linguistic Leap? Math
Simple math may explain why toddlers experience
a sudden burst of words—and why some talk earlier.
8 Podcast
Reading Protects Brain from Some Toxic Exposure
Lead smelter workers who read more suffered less
brain insult from lead exposure. Kevin Begos reports.
8 Blog
How Physics Embiggened
How a fake word from The Simpsons ended up in
a perfectly cromulent string theory paper.
LIKE WHAT YOU SEE? Everything pictured here, plus 8 Strange but True
Infinity Comes in Different Sizes
Web-exclusive supplements to the articles in this
If you were counting on infinity being absolute,
issue, is available at www.SciAm.com/ontheweb your number’s up.
Scientifi c American (ISSN 0036-8733), published monthly by Scientifi c American, Inc., 415 Madison Avenue, New York, N.Y. 10017-1111. Copyright © 2007 by Scientifi c
American, Inc. All rights reserved. No part of this issue may be reproduced or transmitted in any form or by any means, electronic or mechanical, including photocopying
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DEPARTMENTS ■
1 0 From the Editor
1 2 Letters
1 6 50, 100 and 150 Years Ago
1 8 Updates
38 110
2 0 NEWS SCAN
■ Meeting more stringent mileage standards.
■ An iron-seeded ocean to trap CO2?
■ Antiterorism research benefi ts 104
cancer patients.
■ Time before the big bang.
■ Zoom lens that doesn’t need to zoom.
■ Toxicity of fl uorescent lightbulbs.
■ Mixed messages in hormone therapy.
■ Data Points: Dangerous space junk.
OPINION
4 0 ■ SciAm Perspectives
Competition matters less than
conquering space.
4 2 ■ Sustainable Developments
By Jeffrey D. Sachs Darwin’s Grandmothers
Malaria, one of the world’s worst killers, Read an expanded version of this month’s Insights on evolution
could be stopped soon. at www.SciAm.com/ontheweb
4 4 ■ Skeptic 1 04 Insights
By Michael Shermer Deadbeat granddads, life-shortening sons and
The most useful science blends data, genetically bullying brothers—biologist
theory and narrative. Virpi Lummaa’s studies reveal how evolutionary
forces shape later generations.
4 8 ■ Anti Gravity
By Steve Mirsky 1 08 Working Knowledge
Some strange science stories Geothermal energy.
of recent vintage.
1 10 Reviews
Rapturous sociability.
Armageddon avoided.
The allure of Venus.
10 1 14 Ask the Experts
What is a “fi ctitious force”?
Why do apple slices
turn brown?
1 16 Fact or Fiction?
114 Do helmets attract cars
to cyclists? 116
8 SCIENTIF IC AME RIC AN Oc tober 20 07
© 2007 SCIENTIFIC AMERICAN, INC.
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ESKO PETTAY
FROM THE EDITOR ■
C hoosing Targets
In space and on Earth, progress depends on making smart choices
She was a stray mongrel picked good to see momentum carrying NASA to-
up off the streets of Moscow, ward something.
and her handlers called her The Constellation program’s transpor-
by several names before tation system, including the new Orion
someone in the budding So- vehicle, is planned to make those coming
viet space program tagged her as Laika. forays in space possible. A team of NASA
On Halloween of 1957 she was bundled and Lockheed Martin engineers involved
inside Sputnik 2. Three days later—just in developing those craft offers a peek at
one month after Sputnik 1 was launched them in “To the Moon and Beyond,” which
and started the space race—she became makes up one half of this month’s special
the fi rst living creature in history to leave report on the future of space exploration,
Earth. That distinction was tragically beginning on page 62.
brief because Laika died only a few hours In the other half, “Five Essential Things
later, apparently from a combination of to Do in Space,” on page 69, staff editor
stress and overheating, but she lasted long George Musser weighs what NASA and its
enough to suggest that humans, too, counterparts in other nations ought to be
might survive weightlessness and fi nd a doing. Out of the limitless possibilities for
future in space. In our current celebra- study in our solar system, what priorities
tions of the Sputnik golden anniversaries, should space scientists set? Readers may
let us also salute the memory of a very agree or disagree with his choices (and we
good dog. encourage you to send your preferred list
In the half a century since then, space to
LETTERS ■
LETTERS ■
networks, where user mobility leads to highly vari- and so on. This approach is different from
® able traffic patterns (an unused link may become a the classical Nash equilibrium analysis
bottleneck later). For any network, network coding and often yields more intuitive answers.
helps to maximize our rate of communication by Adam Brandenburger
Established 1845
making the best possible use of existing resources. New York University
CHAI RM A N : Brian Napack ■
The Games We Assay ■ Mortal Clay?
VICE PRES I DE NT A N D M A N AG I NG D I REC TOR ,
I NTE R N ATIO N A L : Dean Sanderson In “The Traveler’s Dilemma,” Kaushik In “A Simpler Origin for Life,” Robert
VICE PRES IDE NT : Frances Newburg Basu describes his game theory scenario in Shapiro addresses life’s origin but neglects
CHAIRM A N E M E RIT US : John J. Hanley
which two players each choose an integer a leading contender: the clay-based theory,
ASSOC I ATE PU B L ISH E R , C I RCU L AT ION : Simon Aronin from 2 to 100; the player choosing lower which is even simpler than the metabolism-
CIRCU L AT IO N D I REC TOR : Christian Dorbandt receives $2 more than that number and the fi rst theory he supports. In it, the fi rst ge-
RENE WA LS M A N AG E R : Karen Singer other player $2 less. The game has a unique nome comes ready-made as clay crystals
FULFILLMENT AND DISTRIBUTION MANAGER :
Rosa Davis Nash equilibrium—an outcome from that replicate their patterns. The RNA-fi rst
which neither can do better by deviating theory he argues against is not the only
VICE PRES I DE NT A N D PU B L ISH E R : Bruce Brandfon unilaterally—at which both choose 2. Yet possibility for a replicator-fi rst origin.
SALES DE VE LOPM E NT M A N AG E R : David Tirpack
SALES RE PRESE NTAT IVES : Jeffrey Crennan, in reality, higher choices often occur. Clay’s affi nity for organics entrains the
Stephen Dudley, Stan Schmidt Such experiences do pose a serious use of simple organic molecules as aids in
challenge to the use of Nash equilibrium the competition for silica ions. These “na-
ASSOC I ATE PU B L ISH E R , STR ATEG IC PL A N N I NG :
Laura Salant in game theory. But game theory is not ked genomes” evolve secondary, all-organ-
PROMOTION M A N AG E R : Diane Schube synonymous with Nash equilibrium. ic structures that take advantage of the ge-
RESE ARC H MANAG E R : Aida Dadurian
There are now theorems giving conditions ometry of some crystals. Genetic takeover
PROMOTION DESIG N M A N AG E R : Nancy Mongelli
under which Nash equilibrium emerges. complete, the new life-forms discard their
GENE R A L M A N AG E R : Michael Florek The assumption that players are rational is clay structures for organic membranes.
BUS INE SS M A N AG E R : Marie Maher A. K. Dewdney
MANAGE R , A DV E R T I S I N G ACCOU N T I N G A N D
COORD I N ATIO N : Constance Holmes University of Western Ontario
DIREC TOR , SPEC I A L PROJ EC T S : Barth David Schwartz ERRATA “Breaking Network Logjams,” by Michelle
Effros, Ralf Koetter and Muriel Médard, lists Ning Cai,
MANAGI N G D I R EC TO R , O N L I N E : Mina C. Lux
Shuo-Yen Robert Li and Raymond W. Yeung as affili-
D IREC TOR , W E B TEC H NOLOG I ES , ON L I N E : Vincent Ma
SALES RE PRESE NTAT IVE , ON L I N E : Gary Bronson ated with the University of Hong Kong. The Chinese
University of Hong Kong is the correct affiliation.
DIREC TOR , ANC I LL ARY PRODUC TS : Diane McGarvey “The (Other) Secret,” by Michael Shermer [Skeptic],
PERMISS IONS M A N AG E R : Linda Hertz incorrectly refers to hydrogen’s conversion to energy
through nuclear fission, rather than nuclear fusion.
CLARIFICATION The June cover features meth-
How to Contact Us anethiol (CH
3SH), one of many molecules considered
SUBSC RI P T IO NS as possibly involved in a metabolism-first origin of life.
For new subscriptions, renewals, gifts, payments, and
changes of address: U.S. and Canada, 800-333-1199;
outside North America, 515-248-7684 or www.SciAm.com DO YOU THINK I think you are rational?
Read more on the Traveler’s Dilemma
REPRI NTS and expanded versions of letters by
To order reprints of articles: Reprint Department, far from suffi cient to yield this outcome. Brandenburger and Rubenstein et al.
Scientifi c American, 415 Madison Ave., There is no confl ict between game theory at www.SciAm.com/ontheweb
New York, NY 10017-1111;
212-451-8877, fax: 212-355-0408; and what we observe in Basu’s game—only
50, 100 & 150 YEARS AGO ■
In Scientific American
“White Flight” ■ Hypnotic Snakes ■ Treasure Ship
Compiled by Daniel C. Schlenoff
OCTOBER 1957 should be so much neglect- disproved the snake-charm theory.
METROPOLITAN SEGREGATION—“ The white ed. The dietetic value of the When t he snakes got ready to strike, they
and non-white citizens of the U.S. are be- fruit is misunderstood and scorned hypnotic artifi ces. A gradual ele-
ing sorted out in a new pattern of segrega- the prejudice against it entire- vation of the head, a noiseless approach,
tion. In each of the major urban centers the ly unjustifi ed. Properly pre- then a slow contraction of coils, a snap-
story is the same: the better-off white fam- pared, the currant might like dart, and a leisurely retreat.”
ilies are moving out of the central cities form an every-day item in
into the suburbs; the ranks of the poor the meals of the people, who EARLY HOMO ROTALIS—“ The reason
who remain are being swelled by Negroes seem to choose their food that roller skates cannot be used
from the South. These population shifts and arrange their dishes with on m acadam roads is because the
bring with them profound economic con- an ignorance the extent of rollers are of such small diameter
sequences. Of fi rst importance is a decline which is appalling. Let us that they drop into every depres-
of parts of the central cities’ business activ- make an interesting compar- sion and unevenness of the road. A
ity. In almost every city the big downtown ison, one that should be quite Swiss inventor has designed the
department stores are losing trade to the clear to the average intelli- skate shown in the accompany-
suburban shopping centers. Retail sales in gence: There is 54.87 per cent ing illustrations.”
the central business district of Chicago fell more total nutriment in cur-
5 per cent between 1948 and 1954 while rants than in lean beef. —Sir
sales in the suburbs increased 53 per cent.” Francis Henry Laking, M.D., OCTOBER 1857
physician to the King of GOLDEN SHIP—“ It is stat-
England [Edward VII]” ed by many of the Cen-
➥ The entire article from 1957 is available at
tral America’s surviving
www.SciAm.com/ontheweb
TRUSSST IN ME—“ It is a popu- passengers, that there were
lar belief that serpents have the very few on the ship whose immediate
PREMATURE—“ Linear A has been cracked. power of capturing their prey by casting a wealth did not amount to hundreds, while
Sixty years ago the British archaeologist mysterious spell over the victims. Even sci- numbers reckoned their gold by the thou-
Sir Arthur Evans unearthed some 2,000 entists have seriously considered this sup- sands of dollars. The greater portion of
baked clay tablets in the ruins of an ancient posed mesmeric power over birds. Alfred the passengers were returning miners
palace at Knossos on Crete. This strange Russel Wallace ascribed it to ‘optic infl u- [from California]; some coming hither in
ancient script found on them has long ences, akin to hypnotism.’ In the rural dis- hopes of a life of greater ease, and others
resisted decoding. Cyrus H. Gordon of tricts, both of Europe and North America, to get their families and return to go to the
Brandeis University, a specialist in Semitic bird-charming snakes are classed with land of gold. But as the storm continued
languages and culture, has now deci- such indisputable phenomena as fish- to rage, less and less of gold was thought
phered Linear A and made the surprising deluding anglers. However, my experi- of, and when, on Saturday, it became evi-
discovery that it is the language of the ments with rattlesnakes last summer have dent that they were likely at any moment
ancient Babylonians, the so- to be buried beneath the waves,
called Akkadian language.” the wealthy men divested them-
selves of their treasure belts and
[EDITORS’ NOTE: Gordon’s work scattered the gold upon the cab-
remains controversial; Linear A is con- in fl oors, telling those to take
sidered to be as yet untranslated.] who dared to test its weight—as
a few ounces might carry them
to death.”
OCTOBER 1907
RAISIN FAN—“ It is to be regret- [ EDITORS’ NOTE : Sunk of f the
ted that an economical and coast of North Carolina, the wreck
valuable article of food, in the was located in 1987; three tons of
shape of the dried currant, PERSONAL WHEELS for badly kept streets, 1907 gold have so far been recovered.] g
16 SCIENTIF IC AME RIC AN Oc tober 20 07
© 2007 SCIENTIFIC AMERICAN, INC.
www.fsoinvestments.com
SCIENTIFIC AMERICAN, VOL. XCVII, NO. 17, OCTOBER 26, 1907
UPDATES ■
Whatever happened to...?
Helium Shortage ■ Cytokine Storm ■ Martian Dust Threat ■ Novel HIV Drug
Edited by Philip Yam
■ Into Thin Air only about half as much. rock beds in the Cliffside gas
Helium prices have doubled in In 2006 the U.S. sold fi eld near Amarillo, Tex.
the past fi ve years. The high 23,000 metric tons of helium, As part of an effort to
demand is not exactly coming which fi lled 71 percent of the privatize government pro-
from people with party bal- world’s helium needs (Algeria grams, a 1996 act man-
loons to fi ll. Rather helium and Russia supplied most of dated the sale of all but
cools the superconducting the rest). At least one third of 2,900 tons by 2015. As a
coils of magnetic resonance the U.S.’s contribution came result, according to a 2000
imaging (MRI) devices, from the federal helium re- National Academy of Scienc-
MODEL of Mars rover Opportunity.
and the sale of those ma- serve. Started in 1961, es report, the total U.S. heli-
chines has grown when helium was um resources will disappear permit the machines to fully
tremendously, considered to be a by 2035—probably sooner, recharge their batteries. Con-
driving the de- crucial military because of rising demand. “If sidering the robotic explorers’
mand for helium and technological within the next fi ve years, remarkable toughness, they
up by 25 percent resource, the stock- new sources of helium are not might be around to welcome
since 2003. In pile had grown by brought to market, there will the Phoenix lander. On Au-
contrast, helium 1996 to 170,000 be a helium shortage” if de- gust 4, NASA launched this
production has metric tons, stored mand continues to grow at craft, which will touch down
increased by mostly in porous current rates, says Joseph Pe- on Mars on May 25, 2008.
terson of the Bureau of Land Its goal is to search for water
Management, the agency that on the planet’s northern
■ Forget the Storm
manages the reserve. Recy- plains [see “The Red Planet’s
Researchers have hypothesized that taming the symptoms
cling of this rare and nonre- Watery Past”; SciAm, Decem-
might boost survival odds during an infl uenza outbreak
newable resource may need to ber 2006].
[see “Preparing for a Pandemic”; SciAm, November 2005].
improve greatly to prevent
Infections set off the release of cytokines, which are proteins
shortfalls. —Sourish Basu ■ New HIV Fighter
that trigger infl ammatory responses, including a rush of
In August, Pfi zer got the go-
lymphocytes and the sacrifi ce of virus-compromised cells.
■ Choking on Mars ahead to sell Selzentry (mara-
The cytokine response to the avian fl u virus, H5N1, is partic-
The Mars rovers Opportunity viroc). The anti-HIV com-
ularly vociferous, and some thought that this “cytokine
and Spirit seem to have weath- pound is the fi rst of a class that
storm” might be the main cause of death. Preventing it, unfor-
ered their biggest challenge works by blocking the CCR5
tunately, does not appear to increase survival. Mice genetical-
yet—the weather. Throughout receptor, a primary portal
ly engineered not to produce a key cytokine (TNF-alpha)
July especially, intense dust through which the virus enters
fared no better than normal mice during infections. The same
storms blocked sunlight cells. The drug results
was true for ordinary mice given drugs to suppress cytokines.
from reaching their from studies of peo-
The fi ndings, in the July 24 Proceedings
solar panels, causing ple who have a re-
of the National Academy of Scienc-
severe power losses. sistance against
es USA, suggest that therapies
At one point, Op- HIV because they
should target the virus itself.
portunity’s energy make mutated
production dipped versions of CCR5
to 128 watt-hours HIV particles (red) [see “In Search of
from a normal av- bud from an infected AIDS-Resistance
erage of 700. With- white blood cell. Genes”; SciAm,
out enough juice, the onboard September 1997]. Perhaps up
electronics could have frozen to 60 percent of HIV-positive
over, permanently disabling people have the form of the
the craft. By mid-August the AIDS virus that enters cells
storms had abated enough to through CCR5.
18 SCIENTIF IC AME RIC AN Oc tober 20 07
© 2007 SCIENTIFIC AMERICAN, INC.
www.fsoinvestments.com
CHARLES D. WINTERS Photo Researchers, Inc. (helium tank); MARS EXPLORATION ROVER MISSION, CORNELL UNIVERSITY, JPL, NASA (rover);
TENGKU BAHAR AFP/Getty Images (bird fl u); NIBSC Photo Researchers, Inc. (HIV particles)
NEWS SCAN
IN THIS ISSUE: Better Mileage ■ Ocean Iron ■ Radiation Sickness ■ Pre–Big Bang ■ Adaptive Lens ■ Toxic CFLs ■ Estrogen et al.
A UTOMOTIVE TECH
S aving Gas and Lives
Can the U.S. improve fuel economy without sacrifi cing safety? BY MARK ALPERT
or years, the automobile industry mission technologies could enable manu- 35 mpg by 2020. Tom Wenzel, a transpor-
has argued that congressional at- facturers to improve fuel effi ciency with- tation scientist at Lawrence Berkeley Na-
F tempts to make cars and trucks more out signifi cantly cutting vehicle weights. tional Laboratory, says the safety impact
fuel-effi cient would compromise passenger The current CAFE standards are 27.5 would depend on whether the regulations
safety. The argument is based on the prem- mpg for cars and 22.2 mpg for light trucks. alleviate the present mismatch between
ise that the Corporate Average Fuel Econ- In June the Senate passed a bill that would cars and light trucks. According to Wenzel,
omy (CAFE) standards imposed in 1975 boost the fuel economy of new cars and the lower CAFE standard for trucks has
resulted in a reduction of vehicle weights, trucks by about 40 percent. (In August the fostered a proliferation of behemoth SUVs
which in turn caused about 2,000 traffi c House of Representatives passed a bill that and pickups that cause thousands of deaths
deaths a year that would not have occurred would leave CAFE standards unchanged; every year when they plow into cars.
otherwise. But as Congress considers an a House-Senate conference committee is A step in the right direction, Wenzel
energy bill that would further boost fuel expected to resolve the differences between says, would be defi ning the vehicle classes
economy—the combined average for cars the bills later this year.) Under the Senate by size rather than weight. Because the
and light trucks has been stalled at about proposal, the National Highway Traffi c size of a vehicle’s “crumple zone” can be
25 miles per gallon since the 1980s—trans- Safety Administration (NHTSA) would di- crucially important for protecting passen-
portation experts have disputed the con- vide the fl eet into classes based on size or gers in a front-end crash, automakers
tention that a lighter fl eet would be less weight and set fuel-economy standards for should be discouraged from shrinking
safe. What is more, new engine and trans- each class to achieve an overall average of cars to enhance fuel economy. The best
solution would be incorporating lighter,
high-strength materials into auto frames
and bodies, which would allow manufac-
turers to slash weight without trimming
the vehicle’s footprint.
Other experts note, however, that ma-
jor weight reductions may not even be nec-
essary. Says David Greene, a transporta-
tion researcher at Oak Ridge National
Laboratory: “If manufacturers were to
take the available technologies and apply
them to fuel economy over the next 10 to
15 years, they could cost-effectively achieve
a 40 to 50 percent improvement without
making vehicles smaller.” For example,
some car engines already have variable
valve lift and timing, which provides great-
er control over the fl ow of air into and out
of the combustion chamber; until now au-
tomakers have employed this system pri-
FATAL MISMATCH: The size discrepancy between SUVs and cars, fostered in part by differing marily to boost horsepower, but it can also
fuel-economy standards, has increased the number of traffi c deaths in the U.S. A careful be used to increase fuel economy.
adjustment of the standards could reduce the disparity in vehicle weights. Another promising technology is a
20 SCIENTIF IC AME RIC AN Oc tober 20 07
© 2007 SCIENTIFIC AMERICAN, INC.
www.fsoinvestments.com
STEVE GOOCH The Oklahoman/AP Photo
