Scenario Planning for Organizational Adaptability

243 Pages·2017·4.09 MB·English

Walden University
ScholarWorks
Walden Dissertations and Doctoral Studies
Walden Dissertations and Doctoral Studies
Collection
2018
Scenario Planning for Organizational Adaptability:
The Lived Experiences of Executives
Robert John Gaskill-Clemons
Walden University
Follow this and additional works at:https://scholarworks.waldenu.edu/dissertations
Part of theBusiness Administration, Management, and Operations Commons, and the
Management Sciences and Quantitative Methods Commons
This Dissertation is brought to you for free and open access by the Walden Dissertations and Doctoral Studies Collection at ScholarWorks. It has been
accepted for inclusion in Walden Dissertations and Doctoral Studies by an authorized administrator of ScholarWorks. For more information, please
[email protected].
Walden University

College of Management and Technology

This is to certify that the doctoral study by

Robert Gaskill-Clemons

has been found to be complete and satisfactory in all respects,
and that any and all revisions required by
the review committee have been made.

Review Committee
Dr. Thomas Schaefer, Committee Chairperson, Doctor of Business Administration
Faculty

Dr. Scott Burrus, Committee Member, Doctor of Business Administration Faculty

Dr. Steve Roussas, University Reviewer, Doctor of Business Administration Faculty

Chief Academic Officer
Eric Riedel, Ph.D.

Walden University
2018
Abstract
Scenario Planning for Organizational Adaptability: The Lived Experiences of Executives
by
Robert John Gaskill-Clemons

MBA, University of Maryland University College, 2010
MS, University of Maryland University College, 2009
BS, University of Maryland University College, 2008

Doctoral Study Submitted in Partial Fulfillment
of the Requirements for the Degree of
Doctor of Business Administration

Walden University
April 2018
Abstract
Organizational adaptability is critical to organizational survival, and executive
leadership’s inability to adapt to extreme disruptive complex events threatens survival.
Scenario planning is one means of adapting to extreme disruptive complex events. In this
qualitative interpretive phenomenological study, 20 executives who had lived experience
with extreme disruptive complex events and applied scenario planning to help adapt
participated in phenomenological interviews to share their experiences related to the
application of scenario planning as a means adaptation to extreme disruptive complex
events. Participants were from a single large organization with executives distributed
throughout the United States and executives from 10 state agencies located within a
single state. Using the thematic analysis process, 14 themes emerged. The themes
included knowing the difference between adaptation and response, not being afraid to
tackle difficult questions, scenario planning is never over because the environment
constantly changes, the true measures of scenario planning value are the benefits
achieved via the planning exercise versus the business application, and participation
should be individuals who can or could have a direct influence on adaptation and do not
get bogged down in structured and/or rigid processes, methods, or tools because while
useful, they are not required to be successful. The implications for positive social change
include the ability for organizations to reduce economic injury and the compound effects
of disruption including the social impacts of business injury, disruption, recovery, job
loss, and reduced revenue on communities and local economies.
Scenario Planning for Organizational Adaptability: The Lived Experiences of Executives
by
Robert John Gaskill-Clemons

MBA, University of Maryland University College, 2010
MS, University of Maryland University College, 2009
BS, University of Maryland University College, 2008

Doctoral Study Submitted in Partial Fulfillment
of the Requirements for the Degree of
Doctor of Business Administration

Walden University
April 2018
Dedication
I never graduated high school because I had to drop out for reasons beyond my
control, but eventually I got a GED. This study is dedicated to anyone else who never
had the opportunity to finish high school but still grew up to be a doctor.
Acknowledgments
I would like to thank and acknowledge my doctoral committee (Dr. Thomas
Schaefer, Dr. Scott Burrus, and Dr. Steve Roussas), my various course and residency
professors, and everyone else who provided support and encouragement as I completed
my doctoral program.
Table of Contents
List of Tables ..................................................................................................................... vi
List of Figures ................................................................................................................... vii
Section 1: Foundation of the Study ......................................................................................1
Background of the Problem ...........................................................................................1
Problem Statement .........................................................................................................2
Purpose Statement ..........................................................................................................3
Nature of the Study ........................................................................................................3
Research Question .........................................................................................................4
Interview Questions .......................................................................................................5
Conceptual Framework ..................................................................................................5
Operational Definitions ..................................................................................................6
Assumptions, Limitations, and Delimitations ................................................................8
Assumptions ............................................................................................................ 8
Limitations .............................................................................................................. 9
Delimitations ......................................................................................................... 10
Significance of the Study .............................................................................................11
Contribution to Business Practice ......................................................................... 11
Implications for Social Change ............................................................................. 12
A Review of the Professional and Academic Literature ..............................................13
Organization of the Literature Review ................................................................. 13
Literature Search Strategy..................................................................................... 14
i
Content of the Literature ....................................................................................... 17
Integrated CAS Theory and Chaos Theory as the Conceptual Framework .......... 21
Relevant CAS Theory Concepts ........................................................................... 27
Relevant Chaos Theory Concepts ......................................................................... 30
CAS Theory and Chaos Theory Business Applications ....................................... 34
Scenario Planning Overview ................................................................................. 42
Metaphoric Scenario Planning Conceptual Examination ..................................... 43
Scenario Planning Benefits and Business Applications........................................ 46
Scenario Classifications and Validation ............................................................... 50
Scenario Development and Analysis .................................................................... 56
Scenario Planning Participants ............................................................................. 65
Scenario Planning Processes ................................................................................. 70
Scenario Planning and Strategy Toolkit Integration ............................................. 76
Scenario Planning Criticisms ................................................................................ 84
Integration of Scenario Planning, CAS Theory, and Chaos Theory ..................... 85
Transition and Summary ..............................................................................................88
Section 2: The Project ........................................................................................................91
Purpose Statement ........................................................................................................91
Role of the Researcher .................................................................................................92
Participants ...................................................................................................................95
Research Method and Design ......................................................................................98
Research Method .................................................................................................. 99
ii
Research Design.................................................................................................. 100
Population and Sampling ...........................................................................................103
Ethical Research.........................................................................................................107
Data Collection ..........................................................................................................110
Instruments .......................................................................................................... 110
Data Collection Technique ................................................................................. 112
Data Organization Techniques ............................................................................ 114
Data Analysis Technique ...........................................................................................115
Data Analysis Process ......................................................................................... 117
Reliability and Validity ..............................................................................................124
Dependability ...................................................................................................... 124
Credibility ........................................................................................................... 125
Transferability ..................................................................................................... 127
Confirmability ..................................................................................................... 127
Transition and Summary ............................................................................................128
Section 3: Application to Professional Practice and Implications for Change ................129
Overview of Study .....................................................................................................129
Presentation of the Findings.......................................................................................130
Participant Profile ............................................................................................... 131
Emergent Themes ......................................................................................................137
Emergent Theme 1: There is a Difference Between Adaptability and
Response ................................................................................................. 138
iii