Russia's wrong direction : what the United States can and should do : report of an independent task force

104 Pages·2006·0.476 MB·English

by  John Edwards, Jack Kemp, Stephen Sestanovich, Council on Foreign Relations. Independent Task Force on U.S. Policy toward Russia

RUSSIA’S WRONG DIRECTION:
WHAT THE UNITED STATES
CAN AND SHOULD DO
JOHN EDWARDS and JACK KEMP
Chairs
stephen SESTANOVICH
Project Director
INDEPENDENT TASK FORCE REPORT No. 57
Russia’s Wrong Direction:
What the United States
Can and Should Do

Russia’s Wrong Direction:
What the United States
Can and Should Do
Report of an
Independent Task Force
Sponsored by the Council on Foreign Relations
Foundedin1921,theCouncilonForeignRelationsisanindependent,nationalmembership
organizationandanonpartisancenterforscholarsdedicatedtoproducinganddisseminating
ideassothatindividualandcorporatemembers,aswellaspolicymakers,journalists,students,
and interested citizens in the United States and other countries, can better understand the
worldandtheforeignpolicychoicesfacingtheUnitedStatesandothergovernments.The
Councildoesthisbyconveningmeetings;conductingawide-rangingStudiesprogram;publish-
ingForeignAffairs,thepreeminentjournalcoveringinternationalaffairsandU.S.foreignpolicy;
maintainingadiversemembership;sponsoringIndependentTaskForces;andprovidingup-
to-date information about the world and U.S. foreign policy on the Council’s website,
www.cfr.org.
THE COUNCIL TAKES NO INSTITUTIONAL POSITION ON POLICY ISSUES
ANDHASNOAFFILIATIONWITHTHEU.S.GOVERNMENT.ALLSTATEMENTS
OF FACT AND EXPRESSIONS OF OPINION CONTAINED IN ITS PUBLICA-
TIONSARETHESOLERESPONSIBILITYOFTHEAUTHORORAUTHORS.
TheCouncilwillsponsoranIndependentTaskForcewhen(1)anissueofcurrentandcritical
importancetoU.S.foreignpolicyarises,and(2)itseemsthatagroupdiverseinbackgrounds
andperspectivesmay,nonetheless,beabletoreachameaningfulconsensusonapolicythrough
privateandnonpartisan deliberations.Typically,aTask Forcemeetsbetweentwo andfive
timesoverabriefperiodtoensuretherelevanceofitswork.
Uponreachingaconclusion,aTaskForceissuesareport,andtheCouncilpublishesitstext
andpostsitontheCouncilwebsite.TaskForcereportsreflectastrongandmeaningfulpolicy
consensus, with Task Force members endorsing the general policy thrust and judgments
reachedbythegroup,thoughnotnecessarilyeveryfindingandrecommendation.TaskForce
memberswhojointheconsensusmaysubmitadditionalordissentingviews,whichareincluded
inthefinalreport.‘‘Chairman’sReports’’aresignedbyTaskForcechairsonlyandareusually
precededorfollowedbyfullTaskForcereports.Uponreachingaconclusion,aTaskForce
mayalsoaskindividualswhowerenotmembersoftheTaskForcetoassociatethemselves
withtheTaskForcereporttoenhanceitsimpact.AllTaskForcereports‘‘benchmark’’their
findingsagainstcurrentadministrationpolicyinordertomakeexplicitareasofagreementand
disagreement. The Task Force is solely responsible for its report. The Council takes no
institutionalposition.
ForfurtherinformationabouttheCouncilorthisTaskForce,pleasewritetotheCouncil
onForeignRelations,58East68thStreet,NewYork,NY10021,orcalltheCommunications
officeat212-434-9400.Visitourwebsiteatwww.cfr.org.
Copyright©2006bytheCouncilonForeignRelations(cid:1),Inc.
Allrightsreserved.
PrintedintheUnitedStatesofAmerica.
Thisreportmaynotbereproducedinwholeorinpart,inanyformbeyondthereproduction
permittedbySections107and108oftheU.S.CopyrightLawAct(17U.S.C.Sections107
and108)andexcerptsbyreviewersforthepublicpress,withoutexpresswrittenpermission
fromtheCouncilonForeignRelations.Forinformation,writetothePublicationsOffice,
CouncilonForeignRelations,58East68thStreet,NewYork,NY10021.
Task Force Chairs
John Edwards
Jack Kemp
Project Director
Stephen Sestanovich

Task Force Members
Stephen E. Biegun Jack Kemp
Coit D. Blacker Clifford A. Kupchan
Robert D. Blackwill* Jessica T. Mathews
Antonina W. Bouis Michael A. McFaul
Mark F. Brzezinski Mark C. Medish
Richard R. Burt* Stephen Sestanovich
John Edwards David R. Slade*
Robert J. Einhorn Walter B. Slocombe*
John Lewis Gaddis Strobe Talbott
John A. Gordon Judyth L. Twigg
James A. Harmon Margaret D. Williams
Steven E. Hellman Dov S. Zakheim*
Fiona Hill
*Theindividualhasendorsedthereportandsubmittedanadditionaloradissentingview.

Contents
Foreword xi
Acknowledgments xiii
Map xv
Task Force Report 1
Introduction and Overview 3
Russia’s Social and Economic Transformation . . . 9
. . . And ‘‘De-Democratization’’ 16
U.S.-Russian Relations Today 22
Findings 1: Partnership, Selective Cooperation,
or . . . ? 29
Findings 2: Democracy and Integration 35
Recommendations 1: Security 41
Recommendations 2: Energy, Trade, and
Environmental Cooperation 51
Recommendations 3: Dealing with an
Authoritarian Russia 62
Conclusion 70