Risking NATO: Testing the Limits of the Alliance in Afghanistan

109 Pages·2010·0.55 MB·English

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Risking NATO
Testing the Limits of the
Alliance in Afghanistan
Andrew R. Hoehn, Sarah Harting
Prepared for the United States Air Force
Approved for public release; distribution unlimited
PROJECT AIR FORCE
The research described in this report was sponsored by the United States
Air Force under Contract FA7014-06-C-0001. Further information may
be obtained from the Strategic Planning Division, Directorate of Plans,
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Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data
Hoehn, Andrew R.
Risking NATO : testing the limits of the alliance in Afghanistan / Andrew R. Hoehn,
Sarah Harting.
p. cm.
Includes bibliographical references.
ISBN 978-0-8330-5011-3 (pbk. : alk. paper)
1. North Atlantic Treaty Organization—Afghanistan—Operations other than
war. 2. North Atlantic Treaty Organization—Armed Forces—Afghanistan. 3. North
Atlantic Treaty Organization—Afghanistan. 4. Afghan War, 2001- I. Harting, Sarah.
II. Title.
UA646.3.H59 2010
958.104'73091821—dc22
2010044237
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Preface
Since August 2003, the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO)
has had a substantial military presence in Afghanistan, culminating
in operations spanning the country beginning in October 2006. For
the first time in the history of the alliance, NATO is operating on ter-
ritory outside of Europe and is responsible for the security of a non-
member state. The risks and implications entailed in such a mission
are far reaching, to say the least, and, in some ways, can be compared
with other momentous challenges that NATO has confronted over its
60-year history.
This monograph evaluates NATO’s role as an alliance, both with
regard to its internal dynamics and its role in facing external security
threats. It focuses on NATO’s role in Afghanistan in particular and
the implications that this undertaking and its results could have for the
future of the alliance.
The document is an outgrowth of a research project, “Risks and
Rewards in U.S. Alliances.” The project sought to examine pressures on
alliance structures, and on U.S. allies more generally, to better under-
stand what the United States and its key partners seek to gain from
such alliances; how changing security circumstances are shaping and,
in some circumstances, recasting the nature of these partnerships; and,
more generally, to explore the costs and benefits of sustaining alliance
relationships into the future. Additionally, the project aimed to shed
light on strategies that could maximize the benefits of key partnerships
into the indefinite future, as well as strategies to share and distrib-
iii
iv Risking NATO: Testing the Limits of the Alliance in Afghanistan
ute among allies the risks that remain in ways conducive to effectively
functioning alliance relations.
The research reported here was sponsored by Headquarters United
States Air Force, Directorate of Operational Plans and Joint Matters
(HQ USAF/A5X) and conducted within the Strategy and Doctrine
Program of RAND Project AIR FORCE.
This document should be of interest to a broad audience, from
policymakers and decisionmakers to students of security studies. This
monograph provides insights and recommendations for strengthening
alliance structures amidst a changing and challenging security envi-
ronment.
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opment, employment, combat readiness, and support of current and
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Modernization and Employment; Manpower, Personnel, and Train-
ing; Resource Management; and Strategy and Doctrine.
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Contents
Preface ............................................................................. iii
Figures and Tables ...............................................................vii
Summary .......................................................................... ix
Acknowledgments ..............................................................xiii
Abbreviations .....................................................................xv
CHAPTER ONE
Introduction ....................................................................... 1
CHAPTER TWO
The NATO That Once Was ...................................................... 5
CHAPTER THREE
Redefining NATO’s Role: 9/11 to Afghanistan ............................13
An Opportunity for NATO in Afghanistan? ..................................16
Afghanistan to Iraq: Where Does NATO Fit In? .............................19
CHAPTER FOUR
A Greater Role for NATO in Afghanistan ..................................25
NATO in Command of the International Security Assistance Force ..... 27
The Broader Challenge ...........................................................37
CHAPTER FIVE
Risking NATO in Afghanistan................................................41
Sharing Burdens .................................................................. 42
Redefining Roles: NATO Members and Nonmembers ......................55
Managing Expectations—From Summits on Down .........................59
v
vi Risking NATO: Testing the Limits of the Alliance in Afghanistan
CHAPTER SIX
What Might Be Next for NATO? .............................................67
Bibliography ..................................................................... 77
Figures and Tables
FIGURES
1. ISAF Regional Commands and Provincial
Reconstruction Team Locations ...................................31
2. Current Troop Contributions to ISAF ........................... 44
3. NATO Member Defense Expenditures as a Percentage
of Gross Domestic Product .........................................49
4. Coalition Fatalities per 100,000 in Total National
Armed Force ..........................................................51
TABLES
1. NATO Areas of Responsibility in Afghanistan ................. 28
2. Distribution and Lead Nations.....................................31
vii