Table Of ContentRisk Management
in
Civil Infrastructure
Civil Infrastructure Health and Sustainability
Series Editors: Mohammed M.Ettouney and Sreenivas Alampalli
Risk Management in Civil Infrastructure
Mohammed M. Ettouney and Sreenivas Alampalli
Multihazard Considerations in Civil Infrastructure
Mohammed M. Ettouney and Sreenivas Alampalli
Risk Management
in
Civil Infrastructure
Mohammed M. Ettouney
Sreenivas Alampalli
Boca Raton London New York
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Dedication
To Cairo, Egypt: The mother of the whole universe.
Mohammed M. Ettouney
To my wife, Sharada, and son, Sandeep, for their love and patience.
Sreenivas Alampalli
Contents
Preface.............................................................................................................................................xix
Acknowledgments ...........................................................................................................................xxi
Authors .........................................................................................................................................xxiii
Chapter 1 Introduction ..................................................................................................................1
1.1 Overview ...........................................................................................................1
1.1.1 Risk Management Landscape ..............................................................1
1.1.2 What Is Risk? ........................................................................................1
1.1.3 History of Design Paradigms and Risk ................................................2
1.1.4 Convenient Definition for Risk.............................................................4
1.2 Risk Basic Components .....................................................................................5
1.2.1 Overview ..............................................................................................5
1.2.2 Threat/Hazard/Demand .......................................................................5
1.2.3 Vulnerability/Capacity .........................................................................5
1.2.4 Consequences .......................................................................................6
1.2.5 Basic Risk Equation .............................................................................7
1.2.6 Risk Analogy Principle ........................................................................7
1.3 Reliability, Exposure, Likelihood, Resilience, and Sustainability ...................8
1.3.1 Overview ..............................................................................................8
1.3.2 Reliability .............................................................................................9
1.3.3 Exposure .............................................................................................11
1.3.3.1 Exposure Application: Bridge Inspection ...........................11
1.3.4 Likelihood ..........................................................................................12
1.3.5 Resilience ...........................................................................................13
1.3.5.1 Overview .............................................................................13
1.3.5.2 Resilience and Its Components ...........................................14
1.3.5.3 Resilience Management ......................................................16
1.3.5.4 Asset Resilience vs. Community (Network) Resilience .....16
1.3.6 Risk Relationships ..............................................................................18
1.3.6.1 Risk Relationship with Resilience ......................................19
1.4 Components of Risk Management ..................................................................22
1.4.1 Overview ............................................................................................22
1.4.2 Risk Assessment .................................................................................22
1.4.3 Risk Acceptance .................................................................................24
1.4.4 Risk Treatment/Improvement ............................................................25
1.4.5 Risk Monitoring .................................................................................27
1.4.6 Risk Communications ........................................................................29
1.5 Miscellaneous Issues Related to Risk Management ........................................29
1.5.1 Overview ............................................................................................29
1.5.2 Uncertainty .........................................................................................30
1.5.3 Intersections/Links/Networks ............................................................31
1.5.4 Multihazards Considerations ..............................................................31
1.5.5 Snapshot vs. Time Marching ..............................................................31
1.5.6 Subjective vs. Objective Risk .............................................................31
1.5.7 Cascading Effects ...............................................................................32
1.5.8 Unintended Consequences .................................................................34
References ..................................................................................................................35
vii
viii Contents
Chapter 2 Graph Networks .........................................................................................................39
2.1 Introduction .....................................................................................................39
2.1.1 Overview ............................................................................................39
2.1.2 Contents of This Chapter ...................................................................39
2.2 Formal Modeling of Graph Networks .............................................................40
2.2.1 Overview ............................................................................................40
2.2.2 Components of Graph Networks ........................................................41
2.2.2.1 Nodes ..................................................................................41
2.2.2.2 Links ...................................................................................42
2.2.2.3 Layers ..................................................................................42
2.2.3 Tree vs. Network ................................................................................43
2.2.4 Cyclic vs. Acyclic Networks...............................................................43
2.2.5 Observations (Evidence) .....................................................................44
2.2.5.1 Soft Evidence vs. Hard Evidence ........................................44
2.3 Bayesian Networks ..........................................................................................44
2.3.1 Bayesian Theory .................................................................................44
2.3.2 Definition of Bayesian Networks........................................................45
2.3.3 Templates of BN Examples ................................................................45
2.3.4 Case Study 2.1: Absolute Risk vs. Relative Risk ...............................46
2.3.4.1 Overview .............................................................................46
2.3.4.2 Model ..................................................................................46
2.3.4.3 Conditional Probabilities Tables .........................................47
2.3.4.4 Results .................................................................................48
2.3.4.5 Concluding Remarks ..........................................................49
2.3.5 Case Study 2.2: Infrastructure Security .............................................49
2.3.5.1 Overview .............................................................................49
2.3.5.2 Model ..................................................................................49
2.3.5.3 Conditional Probabilities Tables .........................................49
2.3.5.4 Results .................................................................................50
2.3.6 Bayesian Network: Closing Remarks .................................................52
2.4 Markov Networks ............................................................................................52
2.4.1 Case Study 2.3: Traffic and Functional Class ....................................53
2.4.1.1 Overview .............................................................................53
2.4.1.2 Potentials.............................................................................54
2.4.1.3 Results .................................................................................54
2.4.2 Case Study 2.4: Architectural Vulnerability ......................................54
2.4.2.1 Overview .............................................................................54
2.4.2.2 Model ..................................................................................54
2.4.2.3 Conditional Probabilities Tables .........................................55
2.4.2.4 Results .................................................................................55
2.4.3 Case Study 2.3 Revisited: Traffic and Functional Class ....................57
2.4.4 Concluding Remarks ..........................................................................59
2.5 Chain Graphs: Combining Bayesian and Markov Networks ..........................59
2.5.1 Overview ............................................................................................59
2.5.2 Case Study 2.5: Risk and Its Components .........................................59
2.5.2.1 Overview .............................................................................59
2.5.2.2 Model ..................................................................................59
2.5.2.3 CPTs and Potentials ............................................................59
2.5.2.4 Results .................................................................................61
Contents ix
2.6 Decision under Uncertainty: Influence Diagrams ...........................................63
2.6.1 Overview ............................................................................................63
2.6.2 Decision Trees and Utility ..................................................................63
2.6.2.1 Overview .............................................................................63
2.6.2.2 Utility vs. Risk ....................................................................63
2.6.2.3 Case Study 2.6: Structure Inspection and Monitoring
Methods Using Decision Tree ............................................64
2.6.3 Influence Diagrams ............................................................................67
2.6.3.1 Overview .............................................................................67
2.6.3.2 Case Study 2.7: Structure Inspection and Monitoring
Methods Using ID...............................................................67
2.7 Dynamic Graph Networks ...............................................................................69
2.7.1 Overview ............................................................................................69
2.7.2 Time Marching in DGN .....................................................................72
2.7.3 Case Study 2.8: Observed vs. Actual Infrastructure
Condition Rating ..............................................................................72
2.8 Sources of CPTs .............................................................................................76
2.9 Concluding Remarks .......................................................................................76
References ..................................................................................................................77
Chapter 3 Risk Assessment .........................................................................................................79
3.1 Introduction .....................................................................................................79
3.1.1 Overview ............................................................................................79
3.1.2 Risk Assessment in Civil Infrastructures ...........................................79
3.1.2.1 Natural Hazards ..................................................................79
3.1.2.2 Man-made Hazards .............................................................80
3.1.2.3 Flood and Scour Hazards ...................................................81
3.1.2.4 Geotechnical Engineering ..................................................81
3.1.2.5 Offshore Platforms and Coastal Engineering .....................82
3.1.2.6 Bridge Engineering .............................................................83
3.1.2.7 Construction Engineering ...................................................83
3.1.2.8 Environmental Risk ............................................................84
3.1.2.9 Urban Risks ........................................................................85
3.1.3 This Chapter .......................................................................................86
3.2 Risk Assessment Methods and Related Issues ................................................86
3.2.1 Essential Ingredient of Risk Assessment ...........................................86
3.2.2 Risk Assessment Methods (Risk as a Function of
Random Variables) ...........................................................................87
3.2.2.1 Weighted Averages .............................................................88
3.2.2.2 Probabilistic Tree Construct Methods: FTA and ETA .......88
3.2.2.3 Graph Networks ..................................................................88
3.2.3 Combination of Risks .........................................................................88
3.2.3.1 Overview .............................................................................88
3.2.3.2 Analytical Methods ............................................................89
3.2.3.3 GN-Based Methods ............................................................89
3.2.4 Limit States and Risk Assessment .....................................................89
3.2.4.1 Objective Limit States ........................................................90
3.2.4.2 Subjective Limit States .......................................................90
3.2.4.3 Exposure Limit States.........................................................90
