Table Of ContentProbabilistic Safety Assessment and Management
ESREL'96 PSAM-III
Springer-Verlag London Ltd.
Probabilistic Safety
Assessment and
Management '96
ESREL'96 - PSAM-III
June 24-281996, (rete, Greece
Volume 1
Edited by
Carlo Cacciabue and Ioannis A. Papazoglou
, Springer
P. Carlo Cacciabue, PhD
IA PSAM, Joint Research Centre, The European Commission
Institute for Systems, Informatics and Safety, 1-21020 ISPRA (Va), ltaIy
loannis A. PapazogIou, PhD
IA PSAM, NCSR 'Demokritos'
PO Box 60228, GR-15310 Aghin Paraskevi, Greece
ISBN 978-1-4471-3411-4 ISBN 978-1-4471-3409-1 (eBook)
DOI 10.1007/978-1-4471-3409-1
British Library Cataloguing in Publication Data
Probabilistic safety assessment and management '96 : ESREL '96 - PSAM - III
l.Risk assessment 2.Risk management 3.Probabilities
I.Cacciabue, Petro CarI o II.Papazoglou, loannis A.
363.1'00151923
Library ofCongress Cataloging-in-Publication Data
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Apari from any fair deal ing for the purposes of research or private study, or criticism or review,
as permitted under the Copyright, Designs and Patents Act 1988, this publication may only be
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outside those terms should be sent to the publishers.
© Springer Springer-Verlag London 1996
Originally published by Springer-Verlag London Limited in 1996
Softcover reprint of the hardcover lst edition 1996
The use of registered names, trademarks etc. in this publication does not imply, even in the
absence of a specific statement, that such names are exempt from the relevant laws and
regulations and therefore free for general use.
The publisher makes no representation, express or implied, with regard to the accuracy of the
information contained in this book and cannot accept any legal responsibility or liability for any
errors or omissions that may be made.
CONFERENCE ORGANISED
By
ESRA IAPSAM
European Safety and International Association
Reliability Association for Probabilistic Safety
Analysis and Management
Sponsored By
European Commission Joint Research Centre EC - JRC
National Center for Scientific Research "DEMOKRITOS"
European Commission EC - DG-XII/D
European Safety, Reliability and Data Association
(ESReDA)
Greek Atomic Energy Commission (GAEC)
Scandinavian Reliability Engineers
Society for Risk Analysis (SRA)
CONFERENCE ORGANISATION
Ioannis A. Papazoglou, General Programme Chair
Senior Advisory Board
Volta G., JRC, EU, Chairman
Ale B. J. M., RIVM, NL
Apostolakis G., MIT, USA
Bertrand Y., ISDF, F
Garrick B. J., PLG Inc., USA
Hsia D. Y., INER Rep. ofChina
McQuaid J., Health and Safety Executive, UK
Sato K., Nuclear Safety Commission, J
Organising Committee
Papazoglou I. A., N.C.S.R. "Demokritos", GR
Cacciabue P. c., European Commission, JRC, EU
Karvounakis G., N.C.S.R." Demokritos", GR
Cojazzi G., European Commission, JRC, EU
Parisi P., European Commission, JRC, EU
Nivolianitou Z., N.C.S.R. "Demokritos", GR
Anaziris 0., N.C.S.R." Demokritos", GR
Bonanos G., N.C.S.R." Demokritos", GR
Conference Secretariat
Cicognani c., European Commission, JRC, EU
Finokalioti G., N.C.S.R." Demokritos", GR
Magkia S., N.C.S.R." Demokritos", GR
TECIINICAL PROGRAMME COMMITTEE
P. Carlo Cacciabue, Technical Programme Chair
G. Cojazzi, Associated Chair, Technical Programme
Aldemir, T. USA Furuta, T. J MUlvihill, R. USA
Ancelin, C. F Gertman, O. I. USA Murphy, JA USA
Arsenis, S. EU Gheorghe, A. V. CH Okrent, O. USA
Arueti, S. 11 Goossens, L. H. J. NL Oliveira, L. F. BR
Bacivarov, I. RO Greenfield, M. A. USA Ortiz, N. USA
Balfanz, H.P. 0 Guarro, S. USA Orvis, O. USA
Bari, R. USA Haim,M. 11 Papazoglou, I.A. GR
Bianchi,S. F Harvey, O. UK Park, C. K. ROK
Bickel, J. H. USA Helton, J. C. USA Parry, GW. USA
Bley, O. USA Henneke, O. W. USA Pate-Cornell, M. E. USA
Bloomfield, R.E. UK Hessel, P. CON Petersen, K. E. OK
Bonano, E. J. USA Hirschberg, S. CH Poucet, A. USA
Brooks, O. G. USA Ho, V. USA Prassinos, P. USA
Brown, M. L UK Hollnagel, E. N Preyssl, C. NL
Budnitz, R. J. USA Ho1l6, E. H Procaccia, H. F
Cacciabue, P. C. EU Homsy, R. V. USA Raffoux, J.F. F
Camarinopoulos, L. GR Hurst, N. UK Ravindra, M. K. USA
Carlsson, L. S llberg, O. 11 Ravishankar, T.J. CON
Cassidy, K. UK Johnson, O. H. USA Sato, Y. J
Cho, N.Z. ROK Kafka, P. 0 Schueller, G.1. A
Cojazzi, G. EU Kaiser, G. O. USA Schuler, J.C.H. NL
Cooke, R. M. NL Karydas, O. M. USA Siu, N. O. USA
Cox, R. A. UK Kastenberg, W. E. USA Soares, C.G. P
Cummings, G. E. USA Kazarians, M. USA Spitzer, C. 0
Oahlgren, K. S Kelly,O.L. USA Spray, S.O. USA
Oe Gelder, P. B Kelly, G.N. B Stamatelatos, M. USA
Oevooght, J. B Kondo, S. J Svenson, O. S
Outuit, Y. F Laprie, J.C. F Thompson, B. UK
Oykes, A. A. USA Lederman, L. A Versteeg, M. F. NL
Ferrante, M. I Lydersen, S. N Vestrucci, I. P. I
Fischer, S. R. USA Maharik, M. 11 Virolainen, R. K. SF
Fragola, J. R. USA Mancini, G. EU Wicks, P. B
Frangopol, O. USA Marseguerra, M. I Wieringa, PA NL
Frank, M. V. USA Matsuoka, T. J Wilson, Dan S
Fthenakis, V. USA Modarres, M. USA Wingender, H. J. 0
Fujita, Y. J Moore, o. A. USA Wreathall, J. W. SA
Furuta, K. J Mosleh, A. USA
ESREL' 96 PSAMID
PREFACE
BACKGROUND HISTORY
This Conference represents the confluence of two successful traditions: the
annual ESREL Conferences which themselves stern from a European
initiative merging several national conferences into a Pan-European safety
and reliability event, and the PSAM International Conferences which have
provided a forum for the presentation of the latest developments In
methodology and application ofprobabilistic methods in various industries.
ESREL'96 follows ESREL'90 in Brest, France, ESREL'91 in London UK,
ESREL'92 in Copenhagen, Denmark, ESREL'93 in Munich, Germany,
ESREL'94 in La Baule, France, and ESREL'95 in Bournemouth, UK
PSAM III follows PSAM I in 1990 in Los Angeles and PSAM 11 in San
Diego both in the USA. By moving outside the USA PSAM III establishes its
international character not only in terms of participants' origin but also in
terms ofConference Venue.
The objective of the ESREL series of conferences is to promote
communication and integration of reliability and safety experts across
Europe. PSAM's objectives include promotion of relevant experience among
various industries. This joint ESREL - PSAM conference aims at enhancing
communication, sharing of experience and integration of approaches not only
among various industries but at a truly world wide basis by bringing together
leading experts from all over the world.
ESREL '96 - PSAM III has been co-organised by the European Safety and
Reliability Association (ES RA) and the International Association for
Probabilistic Safety Assessment and Management (IPSAM). Sponsoring by
the Commission ofthe European Union (Joint Research Centre and DG-XII/D
Environment), and the Center for Scientific Research "DEMOKRITOS" is
particularly appreciated and gratefully acknowledged along with that of the
other sponsoring organisations.
THECONFERENCETHEME
" We CZ\tIJen1AH in our persons, tAke our ~er1s10H on
poUr, An~ submit tIJem to proper ~1sruss1on. 7IJe worst
tIJ1ns 1s to rusIJ 1nto Artion before tIJe ronse'luenres hAye
been properl, ~ebAted. CZ\nd tIJ1s 1s Another point wIJere we
d1ffer from otIJer people. We Are rApAble At the SAme time
of tllMng nslu; And eSNmllNng tIJem before IJAnd. OtIJers
Are brAve out of isnorAnre7 And wIJen tIJe, stop to tIJink,
tIJe, besin to feAr. ~ut tIJe mAn wIJo rAn most nul, be
Arrounted brAve is IJe wIJo best knows tIJe meAn1ns of wIJAt
is sweet in life, And WIJAt is terrible, And IJe tIJen soes out
undeterred to meet WIJAt 1s to rome".
from Pericle's Funeral Oration in Thucydides'
" History ofthe Peloponnesian War"
(started in 431 B. C.)
More than 2.400 years ago Pericles offered, as one of the reasons for the
superiority of the Athenian political system, their capacity of estimating risks
and evaluating them before taking decisions. In the last 30 years,
contemporary scientists have been trying to provide modern societies with a
systematic, self consistent and coherent framework for making decisions,
concerning at least one dass of risks, those stemming from modern
technological applications.
Parts of this framework, are supported by methods and techniques developed
in the scientific areas, known as Reliability Av ailability Maintainability
(RAM) analysis of systems (recently referred to also as Dependability),
Probabilistic Safety Analysis (PSA), andlor Quantified Risk Assessment.
Most of the effort in the last three decades has been spent in trying to develop
techniques for assessing the dependability of technological systems, and
assessing or estimating the levels of safety and associated risks. A wide
spectrum of Engineering, Physical and Economic Sciences are involved in this
assessment effort.
We believe that the time is ripe for putting these assessment methods at work,
and use the results in relevant decisions. This is what we collectively call Risk
Management.
Decision making and more specifically risk management and risk based
regulation are the main themes of this Conference. A large dass of decisions
conceming technology, is being made through various forms of regulations.
Creating an appropriate regulatory framework making proper use of the
capabilities of RAMs and QRA techniques is, in our belief, the challenge
facing nowadays the reliability and probabilistic safety analysis fields. Use
and testing of existing probabilistic methods, will also indicate the areas in
need of further research and development.
This Conference has widely covered and discussed both weIl established
practices and open issues in the domain of Probabilistic Safety Assessment
and Management, identifying areas where maturity has been reached and
where more and new research is needed.
Can we now argue that the lesson of Perides has been leamed and the wisdom
ofthe Athenians has been spread? We Iike to think that it has started to do so,
although modem technology always presents us with new challenges and open
questions demanding the continuous and passionate work of safety analysts
and researchers.
PROCEEDINGS ORGANISA TION
Three hundred and sixty three (363) papers, are induded in these Proceedings
covering a wide spectrum of topics in the areas of System Dependability and
Probabilistic Safety Assessment and Management, and authored by scientists
originating from 30 different countries.
One of the particular features in this Conference Organisation pioneered by
the PSAM series, is that members of the Technical Programme Committee
(TPC), are responsible for soliciting papers for the Conference and organising
them into Sessions. All papers are then reviewed by the TPC and arranged in
new sessions according to subject and final availability. In order to facilitate
Conference attendance and the following of presentations, the papers in the
Proceedings are arranged according to the presentation sequence, which of
course is seriously affected by space and time constraints.
We have organised the papers in five major thematic categories. To facilitate
the reader to locate papers in specific thematic areas, the following table is
provided:
