Table Of Content<S^\ United States Pest Risk Assessment
(Ik &Jt\ Departmentof
Agriculture
fgj
Forest
Service of the Importation of
Miscellaneous
Publication No. 1495 Larch from and
Siberia
September 1991
the Soviet Far East
Historic, archived document
Do not assume content reflects current
scientific knowledge, policies, or practices.
Pest Risk Assessment on
United States
Department of
the Importation of Larch
Agriculture
From
Siberia and the
Forest
Service
Soviet Far East
Miscellaneous
Publication No. 1495
September 1991
CONTENTS
CONTRIBUTORS
j
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
S-l
CHAPTER INTRODUCTION
1.
Statement of Purpose 1-1
Background 1-1
Proposed Importation 1-2
,
Resources at Risk 1-2
Biological Considerations 1-5
CHAPTER 2. THE RISK ASSESSMENT APPROACH
Conceptual Framework 2-1
The Risk Assessment Process 2-1
Pest Risk Assessment Core Team 2-1
CHAPTER CASE HISTORIES OF PEST INTRODUCTION
3.
Introduction 3-1
Gypsy Moth 3-1
Chestnut Blight 3-2
Dutch Elm Disease 3-4
Port-Orford-Cedar Root Rot 3-6
White Pine Blister Rust 3-7
Pine Wilt Disease 3-9
CHAPTER 4. ORGANISMS POSING RISK
Introduction 4-1
Asian Gypsy Moth and Nun Moth 4-1
Summary of Natural History and Basic Biology of the Pest 4-1
Specific Information Relating to Risk Elements 4-5
Probability of Pest Establishment 4-5
Consequences of Establishment 4-5
Estimated Risk 4-6
Additional Remarks 4-6
Pine Wood Nematodes 4-6
Summary of Natural History and Basic Biology of the Pest 4-6
Specific Information Relating to Risk Elements 4-6
Probability of Pest Establishment 4-6
Consequences of Establishment 4-7
Estimated Risk 4-8
Larch Canker 4-8
Summary of Natural History and Basic Biology of the Pest 4-8
Specific Information Relating to Risk Elements 4-9
Probability of Pest Establishment 4-9
Consequences of Establishment 4-9
Estimated Risk 4-9
Additional Remarks 4-9
Spruce Bark Beetle 4-9
Summary of Natural History and Basic Biology of the Pest 4-9
Specific Information Relating to Risk Elements 4-10
Probability of Pest Establishment 4-10
Consequences of Establishment 4-10
Estimated Risk 4-11
Artnosus Root Disease 4-11
Summary of Natural History and Basic Biology of the Pest ................ 4-11
Specific Information Relating to Risk Elements 4-12
Probability of Pest Establishment 4-12
Consequences of Establishment 4-12
Estimated Risk 4-13
CHAPTER ECONOMIC EFFECTS EVALUATION
5.
Introduction 5-1
Defoliator Insects 5-2
Pine Wood Nematodes 5-7
Larch Canker 5-17
Spruce Bark Beetles 5-21
Annosus Root Disease 5-23
CHAPTER ECOLOGICAL EFFECTS EVALUATION
6.
The Resource 6-1
Recreation 6-1
Wildlife 6-2
Potential Pest Impacts 6-2
Environmental Stress 6-3
Habitat Modification 6-4
Criteria for Assessing Ecological Impacts 6-4
Proportion of the Total Susceptible Plant Cover in the System 6-4
The Role of the Susceptible Plant Species in the Ecosystem 6-4
Adaptability and Aggressiveness of Potential Introduced Pests 6-4
Asian Gypsy Moth 6-4
Nun Moth 6-5
Pine Wood Nematode 6-5
Larch Canker 6-5
Annosus Root Disease 6-5
Spruce Bark Beetle 6-5
Ecological Impacts of Large-Scale Infestations 6-5
Asian Gypsy Moth 6-6
Nun Moth 6-8
Pine Wood Nematode 6-9
Larch Canker 6-10
Annosus Root Disease 6-10
Spruce Bark Beetle 6-10
Summary 6-10
CHAPTER CONCLUSIONS
7.
Summary of Potential Economic Costs 7-1
REFERENCES Ref-1
Appendix A. List of Pests Intercepted on Logs From the
Soviet Union A-l
Appendix B. Letters of Correspondence Between APHIS and the Forest Service B-l
Appendix C. Estimated Potential Volume of Soviet Log Imports to
the United States C-l
Appendix D. Soviet Forest Resources and Host Timber Species Profiles
Soviet Forest Resources D-l
Species Distribution D-4
Problems of Development D-4
.
Logging Techniques D-5
Transportation D-7
Soviet Forest Classification D-9
Host Timber Profile D-10
—
Family Pinaceae Linde. Genus Larix Mill. Larch D-10
—
Family Pinaceae Lindl. Genus Pinus L. Pine D-15
—
Family Pinaceae Lindl. Genus Abies Mill.—True fir D-19
Family Pinaceae Lindl. Genus Picea Dietr. Spruce D-24
—
Family Pinaceae Lindl. Genus Picea Dietr. True fir D-25
Appendix E. Pest Risk Assessment Methodology E-l
Appendix F. Participants of the First Siberian Timber Workshop F-l
Appendix G. Participants of the Second Siberian Timber Workshop G-l
Appendix H. Pests and Pathogens on Coniferous Trees of the Eastern Soviet Union H-l
Appendix I. Pest Species Profiles 1-1
Appendix Assessment Of Timber Economic Impacts of Potential Defoliators
J.
Associated with Siberian Logs J-l
Appendix K. Potential Economic Impact of Larch Canker in the Western United States K-l
Appendix L. Report on the Site Visit to the Soviet Union June 28 to July 16, 1991 L-l
Tables
Table 4-1. Siberian Forest Pests of Concern on Bark (Hitchhikers) 4-2
Table 4-2. Siberian Forest Pests of Concern in Bark and Inner Bark 4-3
Table 4-3. Siberian Forest Pests of Concern in Wood 4-4
Table 5-1. Price, Quantity, and Welfare Impacts of Reduced Growth Caused by Defoliators,
Best Case Scenario 5-5
Table 5-2. Net Welfare Impacts Resulting From Defoliators in Millions of 1967 Dollars,
Best Case 5-6
Table 5-3. Acres of Ponderosa Pine Timberlands Infected by Pathogenic Nematodes After
Hypothetical Introduction in Imported Siberian Logs 5-9
Table 5-4. Economic Analysis of Pine Wood Nematode Infestation 5-11
Table 5-5. Current Value of Stand Conversion Costs After Nematode Infection 5-13
Table 5-6. Present Value of Cash Flow and Residual Stand Value After 35 Years
Without Nematode Infection 5-15
Table 5-7. Financial Loss From Larch Canker on Western Larch Under Three
Scenarios, Four Western States 5-20
Table 5-8. Market Equilibrium Price and Quantity Harvested Resulting From Annosus
Damage 5-24
Table 5-9. Welfare Impacts of Annosus Root Disease (Mortality and Defect):
Low Alternative 5-26
Table 5-10. Welfare Impacts of Annosus Root Disease (Mortality and Defect):
High Alternative 5-26
Table 7-1. Summary of Economic Costs to the Timber Resources of the Western
United States From Introducing of Selected Soviet Forest Pests
(All Ownerships Consist of Unreserved Timber) 7-2
Table D-l. Variations of the Logging Process in the U.S.S.R D-6
Table D-2. Forest Resources in the Baykal-Amur Mainline Zone and Their Use D-8
Table E-l. Categories of Pests E-3
Table J-l. Area and Volume of Unreserved Forest in the Western United States and
Potential Losses From Attack Due to Soviet Defoliator Insects, All Ownerships .... J-2
Table K-l. Area of Commercial Timberland in Western Larch Forest Type by Land Class .... K-2
Table K-2. Area of Commercial Timberland in Western Larch Forest Type by Stand-Size
Class and State K-2
Table K-3. Area of Commercial Timberland in Western Larch Forest Type by Ownership
Class and State K-3
Table K-4. Net Volume of Growing Stock of Western Larch on Commercial Timberland
by Ownership Class and State K-3
Table K-5. Net Volume of Growing Stock of Western Larch by Diameter Class (Inches at
Breast Height) and State K-4
Table K-6. Volume of Western Larch Sawtimber on Commercial Timberland by Diameter
Class (Inches at Breast Height) and State K-4
Table K-7. Volume of Sawtimber, International ^-Inch Rule of Western Larch by
Ownership Class and State K-5
Table K-8. Financial Loss From Larch Canker on Western Larch Under Three Scenarios,
Four Western States K-12
Table K-9. Financial Loss From Larch Canker on Western Larch for Three Scenarios,
by State K-12
