Perspectives in forest policy and trade for eastern Bolivia

120 Pages·2001·4.3 MB·English

by  Merry, Frank David

PERSPECTIVESINFORESTPOLICYANDTRADE
FOREASTERNBOLIVIA
By• '
FRANKDAVIDMERRY
ADISSERTATIONPRESENTEDTOTHEGRADUATESCHOOL
OFTHEUNIVERSITYOFFLORIDAINPARTIALFULFILLMENT
OFTHEREQUIREMENTSFORTHEDEGREEOF
DOCTOROFPHILOSOPHY
UNIVERSITYOFFLORIDA
2001
Tomyparents,CharlesandAnneMerry.
ACKNOWLEDGMENTS
ThisresearchwasfundedbytheBoUvianSustainableForestManagementProject
(BOLFOR)oftheUnitedStatesAgencyforInternationalDevelopment(USAID:contract
number511-0621-C-00-3207). IwouldliketothankthestaffattheBOLFORproject,
andinparticularJohnNittler,fortheirableandgenerousassistance. Iwasalsoluckyto
havehadthepleasureofworkingcloselywithDr.PrestonPattieduringmyresearchin
Bolivia.
AdditionalfundingwasprovidedbytheCenterforInternationalForestry
Research(CIFOR)undertheauspicesofitsprojectentitledExtraSectoralInfluenceson
theForestResource. ParticularthanksareduetoDr.DavidKaimowitzforthissupport.
TheCollegeofAgricultureandLifeScienceandtheSchoolofForestResourcesand
Conservation,attheUniversityofFlorida,havealsobeenvaluedsourcesofhelpful
support.
IwasfortunatetohavereceivedthewisecounselofDr.DouglasCarterwho
servedaschairmanofmycommittee. Iwouldalsothanktheothermembersofmy
committee-Dr.P.K.RNair,Dr.PeterHildebrand,Dr.AlanLong,Dr.Janaki
Alavalapati-allofwhom,atonetimeoranother,havebeenofgreathelp.
Mostimportant,duringthecourseofthisexerciseIhavehadtheprivilegeof
beingsurroundedbymyfriendsandfamily.
iii
TABLEOFCONTENTS
cage
ACKNOWLEDGMENTS "i
LISTOFTABLES vi
LISTOFFIGURES viii
ABSTRACT ix
CHAPTERS
ANINTRODUCTIONTOFORESTRYANDRANCHINGINEASTERN
1
BOLIVIA 1
IntroductionandResearchFormat 1
IntroductiontoEasternBolivia 2
ForestryinEasternBolivia 3
RanchinginEasternBolivia 10
TheCattleHerdofEasternBolivia 12
2 ASTUDYOFLANDCONVERSIONFROMFORESTTOPASTUREIN
THEBOLIVIANLOWLANDS 23
Introduction 23
GovernmentPolicyandForestManagement 26
ForestryandCattleProductionintheLowlands 27
ALinearProgrammingModeltoAnalyzeLandConversion 30
Results 34
RegionalProductivityandLandConversion 36
StumpageValuesandLandConversion 41
ForestManagementCostsandLandConversion 43
LandUseTaxesandLandConversion 46
Conclusion 50
3 FACTORSAFFECTINGBOLIVIANMAHOGANYEXPORTSWITH
POLICYIMPLICATIONSFORTHEFORESTSECTOR 53
Introduction 53
Model 57
iv
Data 62
Results 64
ConclusionsandPolicyImplications 68
4 THELAWOFONEPRICEANDU.S.MAHOGANYIMPORTSFROM
BOLIVIAANDBRAZIL 70
Introduction 70
LiteratureReview,andTestingoftheLawofOnePrice 78
TestingtheLOPforMahoganyImportstotheU.S.fromBoliviaandBrazil 86
Results 90
Conclusion 92
5 CONCLUSION 95
REFERENCES 101
BIOGRAPHICALSKETCH 108
V
LISTOFTABLES
Table Eige
1.1 LoggingbyDepartment 4
1.2 ValueofForestProductExportsfromBolivia 7
1.3 ForestmanagementCosts:1,000and5,000Hectares 9
1.4 CattlePopulationinSantaCruzbyProvince,1992-1995 14
1.5 ScheduleofCattleProductionActivities 17
1.6 CattleProductionBudgetsfortheChiquitania 19
1.7 TransportationCostsforCattleandBeef 22
2.1 SelectedWoodExportsfromBolivia^1998,withRegionalSpecies
Distribution 29
2.2 BaseLevelsforModelVariables 33
2.3 RegionalVariationforSelectedVariables 35
2.4 RegionalComparisonofLandConversiontoPasture(3,000HectareArea) 40
2.5 EconomiesofScaleinForestInventoryPreparation($US,1995) 44
2.6 CostsofSustainableManagementonPrivateForestsof1,000and5,000
Hectares 45
2.7 LandTaxScheduleforLivestockRanches,1996 48
2.8 GeneralLandConversionImpactswithChangesintheLandUseTaxes 48
2.9 VariationsinForestandPastureLandTaxes:TheirEffectonLandConversion
(5,000hectares) 50
3.1. Datadescriptionandsources 60
3.2. Summarystatisticsforselectedvariables 63
vi
3.3. GMMEstimatesofMahoganySupplyandDemandinBolivia,1977-1993 65
3.4 PartialEquilibriumEffectsinMahoganySupplyandDemand 66
4.1 HistoricalAveragesforMahoganyExportstotheU.S.fromSelected
Countries
4.2 AverageAnnualPrice($/M3)forMahoganyImportsfromAggregated
Regions
4.3 AvAenrnaugaelAInmnpuoarltsVoofluMmaeho(gMa3n)yIimnptoortthsefUr.omSAggregatedRegionsandTotal ^6
4.4 DFResuhsforUnitRootsfor BoliviaandBrazilMahoganyPrices-1974-
2000
4.5 EGResultsforTestingCointegrationofMahoganyPricesBetweenBolivia
andBrazil-1974-2000
4.6 DFResultsforUnitRootsfor BoliviaandBrazilMahoganyPrices-1992-
2000
4.7 EGResultsforTestingCointegrationofMahoganyPricesBetweenBolivia
andBrazil-1992-2000 ^2
4.8 DFResultsforUnitRootsforBoliviaandBrazilMahogany
Prices-Monthly,1992-2000 92
vii
LISTOFFIGURES
Figure Eage
1.1 MapofBolivia 5
2.1 GeographicalSiteDescriptionsforFiveRegionsintheBolivianLowlands 37
2.2 PercentLandConversionbyInitialStumpageVolumeandPrices 41
2.3 TheEffectofPastureTaxesonLandConversionunderConditionsofHigh
andLowManagementCosts 49
3.1 MahoganyexportsfromBolivia,1974-1993 56
4.1 MahoganyImportsfromBrazil,1974-2000 77
4.2 MahoganyImportsfromBolivia,1974-2000 77
4.3 MahoganyPricesfromBrazilandBolivia,1974-2000(Unadjusted)-Bolivia
withMarker 88
4.4 BolivianMahoganyPrices,1974-2000(perM3)Unadjusted 88
4.5 BrazilianMahoganyPrices,1974-2000(perM3)Unadjusted 89
4.6 MahoganyPriceDifferenceBetweenBrazilandBolivia(Brazilianminus
BolivianPrice) 89
viii
AbstractofDissertationPresentedtotheGraduateSchool
oftheUniversityofFloridainPartialFulfillmentofthe
RequirementsfortheDegreeofDoctorofPhilosophy
PERSPECTIVESINLANDUSE,THETIMBERTRADE,
ANDFORESTPOLICYFOREASTERNBOLIVIA
By
FrankDavidMerry
December2001
Chairperson:Dr.DouglasR.Carter
MajorDepartment:SchoolofForestResourcesandConservation
Approximately51percentofBolivia's1,100,000Km'iscoveredinforest. Allof
thetropicalforestislocatedinthelowlandsofEasternBolivia,whichincorporatesthe
DepartmentsofSantaCruz,Beni,Pando,andnorthernLaPaz. Forthepastfewyears,
change,broughtonbynewforestandlanduselaws,hasbeenapparent. Thisdissertation
broachesthesechangeswiththreestudiesundertheumbrellaofsustainableforestry.
Thefirstconsidersthelandusetradeoffbetweensustainableforestryandcattle
production. Alinearprogrammingmodelisdevelopedtoanalyzethelandconversion
fromsustainableforestry,asprescribedbythenewlegislation,topasture. Thesecond
twoexamineaspectsofthemahoganytrade,adominantproductinBolivianforestry.
ThefirsttradestudyisaneconometricmodelofthesupplyanddemandforBolivian
mahogany. Thesecondtradestudytestswhetherthelawofonepriceholdsbetween
BolivianandBrazilianmahoganyusingacointegrationtechnique. Theseseparate
ix
perspectivesarelinkedwithintheoverallissueofforestpolicyandtradeinEastern
Bolivia.
Resultsfromthestudysuggestthat(1)therateoflandconversiontopasturewill
differbetweenregionsandthatsomeflexibilityinthelandusetaxes,toadjustforthis
difference,iswarranted;(2)undercertainconditions,increasingprofitsinsustainable
forestrycanexacerbatelandconversiontopasture;(3)policieswhichcontrolthearea
underconcessionarenotlikelytoaffectthesupplyofmahogany-amoreeffectivemeans
ofcontrollingmahoganysupplywouldbepricingpoliciessuchasexporttaxes;and(4)
thelawofonepricedoesnotholdforU.S.mahoganyimportsfromBrazilandBolivia.
Thisimpliesthatthemahoganyisdifferentiatedbycountryoforiginandthatcountry-
specificlegislationplaysanimportantroleinthemanagementofthemahoganyresource.
x