optimizing crowd evacuation in the emergency route planning problem mohd nor akmal khalid ...

39 Pages·2015·0.27 MB·English

OPTIMIZING CROWD EVACUATION IN THE
EMERGENCY ROUTE PLANNING PROBLEM
MOHD NOR AKMAL KHALID
UNIVERSITI SAINS MALAYSIA
2015
OPTIMIZING CROWD EVACUATION IN THE
EMERGENCY ROUTE PLANNING PROBLEM
by
MOHD NOR AKMAL KHALID
Thesis submitted in fulfilment of the requirements
for the degree of
Master of Science
May 2015
ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS
"InthenameofAllah,mostGracious,mostCompassionate"
First and foremost, I am most grateful to my supervisors Dr. Umi Kalsom Yusof, School
of Computer Sciences in Universiti Sains Malaysia, for her unconditional support,
encouragement, and unequivocal time, energy and opinion that have been given throughout
thedurationofmystudyinaccomplishing thisthesis.
Besides that, I would like to express my gratitude to Professor Dr. Ahamad Tajudin
Khader, the project leader of Hajj Project (Long Term Research Grant Scheme), respectively,
for stimulating useful and encouraging feedbacks as well as insightful comments. I would
also like to express my gratitude and appreciation to most lecturers in School of Computer
Sciencesthathavegivenmemanyvaluableknowledge,insight, andsupportalongtheyearsof
mystudy.
Personally, I would like to thank Nur Izzah Azhar, which is both companion in works
and in life, for the continues support in various aspects until the completion of this research.
Additionally, I would like to thanks to many “companion in arm” friends that have helped
mestaystrong whilegivingmevaluableopinion andknowledgethroughout thesechallenging
years. IgreatlyvaluetheirfriendshipandIdeeplyappreciatetheirsupportandconcerntowards
me.
Above all, none of this would have been possible without the love and patience of my
family who has been a constant source of love, concern, support, and strength for all these
years. Last but not least, I thank my parents for their undivided support, their patience and
prayersinmakingmewhatIamtoday.
ii
TABLE OF CONTENTS
Acknowledgements........................................................................... ii
TableofContents............................................................................. iii
ListofTables.................................................................................. vii
ListofFigures ................................................................................ ix
ListofAbbreviations......................................................................... x
ListofPublications........................................................................... xi
Abstrak........................................................................................ xii
Abstract ....................................................................................... xiv
CHAPTER1 – INTRODUCTION
1.1 ProblemBackground .................................................................. 1
1.2 Challenges ofEmergencyRoutePlanning(ERP)Problem.......................... 2
1.3 ProblemStatement..................................................................... 4
1.4 GoalandObjectivesofTheStudy .................................................... 5
1.5 StudyScopeandSignificance......................................................... 6
1.6 OutlineoftheThesis................................................................... 9
CHAPTER2 – LITERATUREREVIEWS
2.1 Introduction ............................................................................ 12
2.2 Emergencies............................................................................ 12
2.3 EmergencyEvacuation ................................................................ 16
2.4 EmergencyRoutePlanning(ERP).................................................... 17
2.4.1 ERPApproaches.............................................................. 20
2.5 TheProposedArtificialImmuneSystem(AIS)Approach........................... 30
2.6 TrendsandDirections ................................................................. 37
2.7 ChapterSummary...................................................................... 40
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CHAPTER3 – RESEARCHMETHODOLOGY
3.1 Introduction ............................................................................ 41
3.2 ResearchFramework .................................................................. 41
3.3 ProblemDescriptions.................................................................. 45
3.3.1 CrowdEvacuationModel .................................................... 45
3.3.2 TheOptimizationAlgorithm................................................. 46
3.3.3 TheProposedIntegrated EvacuationRoutePlanning(iEvaPand
iEvaP+)Approaches.......................................................... 46
3.4 DataPreparations ...................................................................... 47
3.5 Instrumentations andResultAnalysis ................................................ 49
3.5.1 HardwareandSoftwareRequirements ...................................... 49
3.5.2 ExperimentalSetups.......................................................... 49
3.6 PerformanceMeasure.................................................................. 51
3.6.1 NotationsandParameters .................................................... 54
3.6.2 PerformanceMeasure ........................................................ 55
3.6.3 Constraints .................................................................... 56
3.7 ChapterSummary...................................................................... 56
CHAPTER4 – DESIGNANDEVALUATIONOFANINTEGRATED
EVACUATIONPLANNING(IEVAP)APPROACH
4.1 Introduction ............................................................................ 58
4.2 TheIntegrated EvacuationRoutePlanning(iEvaP)Approach ...................... 58
4.2.1 EvacuationNetwork.......................................................... 60
4.2.2 TheCrowdModel ............................................................ 60
4.3 TheProposedArtificialImmuneAlgorithminiEvaPApproach forERP
Optimization ........................................................................... 63
4.3.1 TheNaturalImmuneSystem................................................. 63
4.3.2 Population Representation andInitialization................................ 66
4.3.3 CellularReproduction andSurvivability .................................... 68
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4.3.4 ClonalExpansion, AffinityMaturation, andSomaticHyper-Mutation .... 69
4.3.5 OverallSummaryofTheProposedAISiniEvaPApproach ............... 70
4.4 Experimentation andAnalysis ........................................................ 71
4.4.1 iEvaPApproach Validation .................................................. 73
4.4.2 iEvaPApproach Evaluation.................................................. 74
4.4.3 Computational ResultsandAnalysis ........................................ 75
4.4.4 Discussions andInsights ..................................................... 78
4.5 ChapterSummary...................................................................... 81
CHAPTER5 – INCORPORATINGDYNAMISMANDAPPROACH
ENHANCEMENT(IEVAP+)
5.1 Introduction ............................................................................ 82
5.2 TheNeedsforEnhancement .......................................................... 82
5.3 TheDynamicCrowdEvacuationModel.............................................. 84
5.3.1 TheCrowdEvacuationModelling........................................... 84
5.3.2 TheIntegrated EvacuationPlanningApproachwithDynamism(iEvaP+) 87
5.4 Computational ResultsandAnalysis.................................................. 89
5.5 Discussions andInsights............................................................... 94
5.6 ChapterSummary...................................................................... 96
CHAPTER6 – INTEGRATEDEVACUATIONPLANNINGWITH
DYNAMISM(IEVAP+)APPROACHAPPLICATIONTOTHE
CASESTUDIES
6.1 Introduction ............................................................................ 97
6.2 DataCollections andPreparations .................................................... 97
6.3 Computational ResultsandAnalysis.................................................. 102
6.4 Discussions andInsights............................................................... 110
6.4.1 GeneralDiscussions.......................................................... 110
6.4.2 PerformanceResultsofBJCaseStudyVersusQBCaseStudy............ 111
6.4.3 PerformanceResultsofPublicDataVersusActualCaseStudies.......... 112
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6.4.4 PossibleTangibleImplications............................................... 113
6.5 ChapterSummary...................................................................... 114
CHAPTER7 – CONCLUSION
7.1 Concluding Remarks .................................................................. 116
7.2 ResearchContributions................................................................ 118
7.3 FutureWorks........................................................................... 121
7.4 Closing ................................................................................. 123
References..................................................................................... 124
APPENDICES................................................................................. 134
APPENDIXA – CASESTUDIESDATASETS.......................................... 135
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LIST OF TABLES
Page
Table2.1 Summaryoftheapproaches inERPproblems 22
Table2.2 SummaryofAISapproaches intheirrespective domainproblems 34
Table3.1 Experimentssummary 52
Table4.1 Overallevacuation plan 73
Table4.2 iEvaPparameters settings 75
Table4.3 iEvaPparameteroptions 75
Table4.4 ResultsummaryofiEvaPoptions 76
Table4.5 Optionsofadditional parameters withdifferentgroupsize(d ) 77
g
Table5.1 iEvaP+parameters settings andparameteroptions 90
Table5.2 ResultsummaryofiEvaP+ 90
Table5.3 Percentagechangecomparison ofpre-optimization against
post-optimization ofiEvaP+approach 92
Table5.4 Groupsizedistribution ofiEvaP+options 92
Table5.5 Complianceratedistribution ofiEvaP+options 93
Table5.6 p-valueofT-testforcomparison ofiEvaP+approach againstCCRP
approach 93
Table6.1 BJcasestudydescriptions 100
Table6.2 QBcasestudydescriptions 101
Table6.3 iEvaP+parameters settings andparameteroptions 103
Table6.4 ResultsummaryofiEvaP+forBukitJambulcasestudy 104
Table6.5 ResultsummaryofiEvaP+forQueensbaycasestudy 105
Table6.6 Percentagechangecomparison ofpre-optimization against
post-optimization ofiEvaP+approach forBJcasestudy 107
Table6.7 Percentagechangecomparison ofpre-optimization against
post-optimization ofiEvaP+approach forQBcasestudy 108
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Table6.8 p-valueofT-testforcomparison ofiEvaP+approach againstCCRP
approach 109
Table6.9 Overallfindingssummary 114
TableA.1 Crowddensity andvelocityapproximation 135
TableA.2 BukitJambulComplexLogicalGraphDetailedInformation 136
TableA.3 QueensbayMallLogicalGraphDetailedInformation 136
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LIST OF FIGURES
Page
Figure1.1 ScenariosoftheERPproblem 5
Figure1.2 Themainresearch goal 8
Figure1.3 Structureofthethesis 10
Figure2.1 Thecontentstructure ofChapter2 13
Figure3.1 Researchmethodology 42
Figure3.2 Logicalstructures ofthepublicdata 48
Figure3.3 Illustration ofthedifferencebetweenTETandNCTevacuation
performances (Xieetal.,2010) 53
Figure3.4 Theperformance measureandinfluences 54
Figure4.1 Theproposed iEvaPframework 59
Figure4.2 Aninfluencediagram ofthecrowdevacuation model 62
Figure4.3 Thenaturalimmunesystem 65
Figure4.4 Therepresentation ofpopulation instance (antibody andantigen) 67
Figure4.5 Theproposed twotypesofsomatichyper-mutation (Type-1
Ab-MutateandType-2Ag-Mutate) 71
Figure4.6 Networkclearance time(NCT)analysisofiEvaPoptions 77
Figure4.7 Analysisofnetworkclearance time(NCT)foriEvaPadditional
optionsagainstoriginaloptions 79
Figure5.1 Illustration ofcrowdgrouping phenomenon andeffectoftheir
respectivecompliance level 84
Figure5.2 Theinfluencediagramofthedynamiccrowdevacuation model 86
Figure5.3 TheiEvaP+framework 88
Figure6.1 ThelogicalmapoftheBukitJambulshopping complex 99
Figure6.2 ThelogicalmapoftheQueensbay mall 100
Figure7.1 Researchsummary 119
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