Natural experiments in the social sciences: a design-based approach

380 Pages·2015·3.089 MB·English

by  Dunning, Thad

Natural Experiments in the Social Sciences
This unique book is the first comprehensive guide to the discovery, analysis, and
evaluation of natural experiments—an increasingly popular methodology in the
social sciences. Thad Dunning provides an introduction to key issues in causal
inference, including model specification, and emphasizes the importance of strong
researchdesignovercomplexstatisticalanalysis.Surveyingmanyexamplesofstan-
dard natural experiments, regression-discontinuity designs, and instrumental-
variables designs, Dunning highlights both the strengths and potential weaknesses
of these methods, aiding researchers in better harnessing the promise of natural
experimentswhileavoidingthepitfalls.Dunningalsodemonstratesthecontribution
of qualitative methods to natural experiments and proposes new ways to integrate
qualitativeandquantitativetechniques.Chapterscompletewithexercises,andappen-
dices covering specialized topics such as cluster-randomized natural experiments,
makethisanidealteachingtoolaswellasavaluablebookforprofessionalresearchers.
Thad Dunning is Associate Professor of Political Science at Yale University and a
research fellow at Yale’s Institution for Social and Policy Studies and the Whitney
andBettyMacMillanCenterforInternationalandAreaStudies.Hehaswrittenona
rangeofmethodologicaltopics,includingimpactevaluation,econometriccorrections
for selection effects, and multi-method research in the social sciences, and his first
book,CrudeDemocracy:NaturalResourceWealthandPoliticalRegimes(Cambridge
University Press, 2008), won the Best Book Award from the Comparative
DemocratizationSectionoftheAmericanPoliticalScienceAssociation.
Strategies for Social Inquiry
Natural Experiments in the Social Sciences: A Design-Based Approach
Editors
ColinElman,MaxwellSchoolofSyracuseUniversity
JohnGerring,BostonUniversity
JamesMahoney,NorthwesternUniversity
EditorialBoard
BearBraumoeller,DavidCollier,FrancescoGuala,PeterHedström,TheodoreHopf,
UskaliMaki,RoseMcDermott,CharlesRagin,ThedaSkocpol,PeterSpiegler,
DavidWaldner,LisaWedeen,ChristopherWinship
Thisnewbookseriespresentstextsonawiderangeofissuesbearinguponthepractice
ofsocialinquiry.Strategiesareconstruedbroadlytoembracethefullspectrumof
approachestoanalysis,aswellasrelevantissuesinphilosophyofsocialscience.
PublishedTitles
JohnGerring,SocialScienceMethodology:AUnifiedFramework,2ndedition
MichaelCoppedge,DemocratizationandResearchMethods
CarstenQ.SchneiderandClaudiusWagemann,Set-TheoreticMethodsfortheSocial
Sciences:AGuidetoQualitativeComparativeAnalysis
ForthcomingTitles
DianaKapiszewski,LaurenM.MacLeanandBenjaminL.Read,FieldResearchin
PoliticalScience
JasonSeawright,Multi-MethodSocialScience:CombiningQualitativeand
QuantitativeTools
Natural Experiments in the
Social Sciences
A Design-Based Approach
Thad Dunning
cambridge university press
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©ThadDunning2012
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Firstpublished2012
PrintedandBoundinGreatBritainbytheMPGBooksGroup
AcatalogrecordforthispublicationisavailablefromtheBritishLibrary
LibraryofCongressCataloginginPublicationdata
Dunning,Thad,1973–
Naturalexperimentsinthesocialsciences:adesign-basedapproach/ThadDunning.
p. cm.–(Strategiesforsocialinquiry)
Includesbibliographicalreferencesandindex.
ISBN978-1-107-69800-0
1. Socialsciences–Experiments. 2. Socialsciences–Research. 3. Experimentaldesign. I. Title.
H62.D797 2012
300.7204–dc23
2012009061
ISBN978-1-107-01766-5Hardback
ISBN978-1-107-69800-0Paperback
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Contents
Detailedtableofcontents pageix
Listoffigures xiv
Listoftables xv
Listofboxes xvi
Prefaceandacknowledgements xvii
1 Introduction:whynaturalexperiments? 1
Part I Discovering natural experiments 39
2 Standardnaturalexperiments 41
3 Regression-discontinuitydesigns 63
4 Instrumental-variablesdesigns 87
Part II Analyzing natural experiments 103
5 Simplicityandtransparency:keystoquantitativeanalysis 105
6 Samplingprocessesandstandarderrors 165
7 Thecentralroleofqualitativeevidence 208
Part III Evaluating natural experiments 233
8 Howplausibleisas-ifrandom? 235
9 Howcredibleisthemodel? 256
10 Howrelevantistheintervention? 289
viii Contents
Part IV Conclusion 311
11 Buildingstrongdesignsthroughmulti-methodresearch 313
References 338
Index 353