Table Of ContentA. Mete ISlkara and Andreas Vogel (Eds.)
Multidisciplinary Approach
to Earthquake Prediction
Progress
•
In
Earthquake Prediction
Research
Edited by Andreas Vogel
Volume 1
Andreas Vogel (Ed.),
T errestrial and Space T echniques
in Earthquake Prediction Research
Volume 2
A. Mete 1~lkara and Andreas Vogel (Eds.),
Multidisciplinary Approach
to Earthquake Prediction
A. Mete 1~lkara and Andreas Vogel (Eds.)
Multidisciplinary Approach
to
Earthquake Prediction
Proceedings of the International Symposium
on Earthquake Prediction in the North Anatolian
Fault Zone held in Istanbul, March 31 - April 5,1980
With 246 figures
Springer Fachmedien Wiesbaden GmbH
CIP-Kurztitelaufnahme der Deutschen Bibliothek
Multidisciplinary Approach to Earthquake Prediction:
proceedings of the Internat. Symposium on Earthquake
Prediction in the North Anatolian Fault Zone, held in
Istanbul, March 31-April5, 1980 I A. Mete I~lkara
and Andreas Vogel (eds.).
(Progress in earthquake prediction research; Vol. 2)
ISBN 978-3-528-08482-0 ISBN 978-3-663-14015-3 (eBook)
DOI 10.1007/978-3-663-14015-3
NE: I§ikara, Ahmed Mete [Hrsg.): International
Symposium on Earthquake Prediction in the North
Anatolian Fault Zone <1980, Istanbul> ; GT
1982
All righ ts reserved
© Springer Fachmedien Wiesbaden 1982
Ursprünglich erschienen bei Friedr. Vieweg & Sohn Verlagsgesellschaft mbH,
Braunschweig 1982
Softcover reprint of the hardcover 1s t edition 1982
No part of this publication may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system or transmitted,
mechanical, photocopying or otherwise, without prior permission of the copyright holder.
Produced by W. Langelüddecke, Braunschweig
ISBN 978-3-528-08482-0
Contents
Editorial .................................................. IX
Editorial Advisory Board ..................................... X
Addresses of the Opening Session .............................. XI
1. Geological history of the North-Anatolian Fault Zone
A.M C. $engör, K. Burke, J.F. Dewey
Tectonics of the North Anatolian Transform Fault . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3
H. Bergougnan, C. Fourquin
Paleo-, Tardi-and Neotectonic Mechanisms of the Present North Anatolian
Fault Zone in the Light of the Structural History of the Eurasian Margin
in the Pontic Ranges . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .. 23
P.L. Hancock, A.A. Barka
Structural Evidence for Left-Lateral Displacement on the North
Anatolian Fault Zone Ouring the Plio-Pleistocene .................... 43
Y. Yilmaz, A.M. Gözübol, 0. Tüysüz
Geology of an Area in and around the Northem Anatolian Transform Fault
Zone between Bolu and Akyazi ................................ 45
CR. Allen
Comparisons Between the North Anatolian Fault of Turkey and the San
Andreas Fault of California ................................... 67
2. Seismotectonics: seismicity statistics according to historical and instru
mental records, focal mechanism, relations between seismic activity and
neotectonics
S.B. Ürer, S. Crampin, A. Miller
Identification of Swarm Activity using the W1ARNET Telemetered
Seismometer-Network ...................................... 89
R. Ate~
Earthquake Activity on the North Anatolian Fault Zone ..... . . . . . . . . . .. 95
M Erdik, S. Öner
A Rational Approach for the Probabilistic Assessment of
the Seismic Risk Associated with the North Anatolian Fault ............. 115
v
A.A Harka, PL. Hancock
Seismotectonic Aspects of the North Anatolian Fault Zone
Between Bolu and Havza . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .. 129
A.A. Barka, P.L. Hancock
Relationship Between Fault Geometry and Some Earthquake
Epicentres within the North Anatolian Zone ...... . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .. 137
P. W. Burton, R. w. McGonigle, K.C Makropoulos, S.B. Ü(:er
Prelirninary Studies of Seismic Risk in Turkey, and the
Occurrence of Upper Bounded and Other Large
Earthquake Magnitudes . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .. 143
M Tokay
Faults and Recently Active Breaks Along the North Anatolian
Fault Zone Between Gerede and llgaz ............................ 173
T. Ahjos, H. Korhonen, J. Saari
Some Aspects of the Seismicity in the North Anatolian Fault
Zone .................................................. 185
B. Sikosek
A Comparative Analysis of the Seismotectonic Characteristics of
the North Anatolian Fracture Zone and the Fracture System of
Inner Dinarides ........................................... 193
U Kuran
Fatigue Crack Propagation Along the Anatolian Faults and
Levant Coast and Earthquake Prediction .......................... 207
H. Soysal, D Ko/~ak, S. Sipahioglu
Some Aspects of the North Anatolian Fault Zone Derived from
the Comparison of its Instrumental Data with Historical
Information ............................................. 223
A. Ercan
A Statistical Analysis of the Major and Microearthquakes along the
East-Anatolian Fault ....................................... 239
3. Pre-earthquake strain and triggering effects from continuous records
U. Yaramanci
Possible Use of Tilt and Tidal Measurements for Earthquake Prediction 261
E Druta
Normal Earthquake Gravitational Precursors from Earth-Tide Data ......... 269
A Aytun
Creep Measurements in the Ismetpa:;a Region of the North Anatolian
Fault Zone .............................................. 279
VI
4. Pre-earthquake strain and deformation from repeated high-precision
geodetic surveys
A. Aksoy
Possible Use of the Turkish National Triangulation Network for the Study
of Crustal Movements in the North Anatolian Fault Zone ............... 295
NK. Demirel, Z. Karahan, E. Öztürk, F. Pirselimoglu, E. Ugur, K. Uysal
Testing for Survey of Reeent Crustal Deformation in Akyazij Adapazari . . . . .. 301
S.M Nakiboglu, E. C/erici, A.M Isikara
Deteetion of Crustal Motion by Repeated Geometrie Observations ......... 307
D. G. Vlachos
Land Deformation Control Network in the Epieentral Region of the
1978 Earthquakes in Northern Greeee ............................ 315
R. Baumer
Methods of Varianee Analysis for the Evaluation of Geodetie Control
Nets in Relation to Crustal Movements ........................... 325
R. Keim
A Geometrie-Gravimetrie Estimation Proeedure for Most Accurate
Determination of Relative Point Displacements in Loeal Areas
Proposal and First Study of Sensitivity ........................... 335
B. Richter
Suggestions for High Precision Gravity Measurements in Geodynamie
and Earthquake Predietion Research ............................. 351
5. Physical state and processes of changing physical rock properties in the
earthquake source region
T. Rikitake
Physieal Parameters in the Earthquake Souree Region and Their
Temporal Changes ......................................... 361
S. Crampin
Polarization Anomalies as Diagnosties of Dilataney ................... 405
R. Evans, M Doyle, S. Balamir Ücer, A. Miller, S. Crampin
An Experiment to Investigate Polarization Anomalies in North Anatolia 409
M Pantovif:
Possible Information on loeal Features of the Foeal Region Based
on Geomagnetie Field Data Reeorded After the Main Shock ............. 413
K. Arie, G. Duma, H. Friedmann, R. Gutdeutsch
Investigations of Geophysical Parameters in the Area of Carinthia and
Friuli in Relation to Seismicity . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .. 427
A. Mete I#kara, N Orbay, M. Pantovic
Note on the Applieation of the PCA Method - A Possible Approach
to the Problem of Elimination of Non-Loeal Geomagnetie Field
Changes ................................................ 435
VII
6. Space techniques in geodynamics and earthquake prediction research
A. Vogel
Application of Space Technology in Earthquake Prediction Research -
A Short Review .. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .. 441
P. Wilson
The Background to High Mobility Space Geodetic Techniques for
Geodynamic and Earthquake Prediction Research .................... 44 7
C Gerstenecker
The Installation of aSpaceborne Ranging System for the Detection of
Crustal Movements in the North Anatolian Fault Zone ................. 449
A. Robson, H Houet
The Meteosat Data Collection System and its Potential as a Data Relay
for Geophysical Measurements ................................. 457
7. Theory of earthquake generation and prediction
D.L. Turcotte
Stress Accumulated Mechanisms on Strike-Slip Faults. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .. 471
B.K. Atkinson
Fracture Mechanics Modelling of Earthquake Generating Processes ......... 487
S.M. Nakiboglu, A.M. Isikara
Analysis of Stress and Strain Around a Transform Fault ................ 523
K.E. Kasapoglu
A Multiple Mode of Faulting Mechanism Proposed for the North
Anatolian Fault and Prediction of Re1ated Earthquakes ................ 539
C Froidevaux, L. Fleitout
AThermal Window in the Uthosphere Underneath North Anatolia
and California ............................................ 549
8. Interdisciplinary approaches to earthquake prediction
A. Vogel
The Concept of a Multidisciplinary Approach to Earthquake Prediction . . . . .. 555
R. Meissner
Deterministic Earthquake Prediction - Present Stage and Future
Developments ............................. . . . . . . . . . . . . . .. 563
W. Thatcher
Earthquake Research on the San Andreas Fault Zone, California .......... 577
VIII
Editorial
Studies of the sources of earthquakes, the only way towards a successful prediction,
requires a broad interdisciplinary approach and cooperation between scientists in various
fields of earth sciences. Seismotectonic studies, observation of strain accumulation and in
vestigation of the physical state and temporal changes of rock properties in the earthquake
source region are mainly the lines to be followed. Modelling of earthquake generatingpro
cesses constrained by the complexity of precursory phenomena is a necessary basis of
prediction research.
The North-Anatolian fault zone is an area of extremely high earthquake risk. Large
and destructive earthquakes have occurred during the last decades. A clearly defined migra
tion of earthquake foci indicates that destructive earthquakes are most likely to occur in a
most populated and industrialized part of Turkey. The chances "to capture an earthquake"
by proper selection of observation sites and networks and to find criteria for earthquake
prediction by observation of earthquake generating processes seem rather promising in the
case of the North-Anatolian fault zone.
An international and interdisciplinary conference was held in Istanbul. Experts in the
fields of geophysics, geology and geodesy from many countries in Europe and overseas con
cerned with earthquake research and hazard assessment took part. They met to present
results of earlier research, to discuss current research activities relevant to earthquake pre
diction in the North-Anatolian fault zone and to work out and organize a program for
earthquake prediction research in the most riskful part of the fault zone.
The conference held at the Department of Geophysics of the University of Istanbul
was organized in cooperation with the Department of Geophysics, Free University of Ber
lin, sponsored by the Faculty of Earth Sciences of the University of Istanbul and the
Turkish National Union ofGeodesy and Geophysics, cosponsored by the UNESCO, the
Parliarnen tary Assembly of the Council of Europe, the IASPEI Commission on Earthquake
Prediction, the European Seismological Commission and under the auspices of the Scientific
and Technical Research Council of Turkey, the Earthquake Research Institute, the General
Directorate of Mapping, and the Turkish National Committee on Earthquake Engineering.
The editors are thankful for the financial support which was given by the Free Univer
sity of Berlin to carry out the editorial work for the present proceedings. They also thank
Mrs. Elena Bömer for carefully correcting and retyping a number of manuscripts.
A. Mete I~lkara Andreas Vogel
Istanbul Berlin
IX
