Monitoring the Future: National Survey Results on Drug Use 1975 - 2017: Volume One: Secondary School Students: 2017

2018·6.1 MB·English

by  Bachman, Jerald G., Johnston, Lloyd D., Miech, Richard A., O'Malley, Patrick M., Patrick, Megan E., Schulenberg, John E.

MONITORING

the FUTURE
NATIONAL SURVEY RESULTS
ON DRUG USE
1975-2017
2017
Volume 1
Secondary School Students
Richard A. Miech
Lloyd D. Johnston
Patrick M. O’Malley
Jerald G. Bachman
John E. Schulenberg
Megan E. Patrick
Sponsored by The National Institute on Drug Abuse at The National Institutes of Health
MONITORING THE FUTURE

NATIONAL SURVEY RESULTS ON DRUG USE, 1975–2017

Volume I

Secondary School Students

by

Richard A. Miech, Ph.D.
Lloyd D. Johnston, Ph.D.
Patrick M. O’Malley, Ph.D.
Jerald G. Bachman, Ph.D.
John E. Schulenberg, Ph.D.
Megan E. Patrick, Ph.D.

The University of Michigan
Institute for Social Research

Sponsored by:
The National Institute on Drug Abuse
National Institutes of Health
This publication was written by the principal
investigators and staff of the Monitoring the Future
project at the Institute for Social Research, the
University of Michigan, under Research Grant No. R01
DA 001411 from the National Institute on Drug Abuse.

The findings and conclusions in this report are those
of the authors and do not necessarily represent the
views of the National Institute on Drug Abuse or the
National Institutes of Health.

Public Domain Notice

All materials appearing in this volume are in the public domain and may be
reproduced or copied, whether in print or in non-print media including
derivatives, in any reasonable manner, without permission from the authors.
If you plan to modify the material, please indicate that changes were made
and contact MTF at [email protected] for verification of accuracy.
Citation of the source is appreciated, including at least the following:
Monitoring the Future, Institute for Social Research, University of Michigan.

https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/

Recommended Citation

Miech, R. A., Johnston, L. D., O’Malley, P. M.,
Bachman, J. G., Schulenberg, J. E., & Patrick, M. E.
(2018). Monitoring the Future national survey results
on drug use, 1975–2017: Volume I, Secondary school
students. Ann Arbor: Institute for Social Research, The
University of Michigan. Available at
http://monitoringthefuture.org/pubs.html#monographs

Institute for Social Research
The University of Michigan
Ann Arbor, Michigan
Published June 2018
ABBREVIATED CONTENTS*

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Detailed Contents ............................................................................................................... iv
List of Tables ..................................................................................................................... ix
List of Figures ................................................................................................................. xix
Chapter 1 Introduction ................................................................................................ 1
Chapter 2 Key Findings in 2017 ............................................................................... 10
Chapter 3 Study Design and Procedures ................................................................. 16
Chapter 4 Prevalence and Frequency of Drug Use ................................................. 30
Chapter 5 Trends in Drug Use ................................................................................ 106
Chapter 6 Initiation Rates and Trends in Initiation Rates .................................. 279
Chapter 7 Degree and Duration of Drug Highs .................................................... 319
Chapter 8 Attitudes and Beliefs about Drug Use .................................................. 344
Chapter 9 The Social Context ................................................................................. 421
Chapter 10 Study Publications ................................................................................. 501
Appendix A Prevalence and Trend Estimates Adjusted for Absentees and
Dropouts ............................................................................................ 516
Appendix B Definition of Background and Demographic Subgroups ................... 527
Appendix C Trends in Specific Subclasses of Hallucinogens, Amphetamines,
Tranquilizers, Narcotic Drugs other than Heroin,
and Sedatives ..................................................................................... 531
Appendix D Trends in Drug Use for Three Grades Combined .............................. 549

*See next page for Detailed Contents.

iii
DETAILED CONTENTS

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Chapter 1 Introduction ........................................................................................................................... 1

Content Areas Covered ....................................................................................................................... 2
Drug Classes ................................................................................................................................. 2
Attitudes, Beliefs, and Early Experiences .................................................................................... 3
Over-the-Counter Substances ....................................................................................................... 3
Cumulative Lifetime Daily Marijuana Use .................................................................................. 4
Trends in Use of Specific Alcoholic Beverages ........................................................................... 4
Sources of Prescription Drugs ...................................................................................................... 4
Synopses of Other MTF Publications ........................................................................................... 4
Appendixes ................................................................................................................................... 4
Purposes and Rationale for This Research .......................................................................................... 5

Chapter 2 Key Findings in 2017 ........................................................................................................... 10

Executive Summary .......................................................................................................................... 10
Illicit Drugs showing an Increase in Use in 2017 ....................................................................... 10
Illicit Drugs Showing Declines in Use in 2017 .......................................................................... 11
Most Illicit Drugs Held Steady in Use in 2017 ........................................................................... 12
Psychotherapeutic Drugs ............................................................................................................ 12
Most Forms of Tobacco Use Continue to Decline ..................................................................... 12
Vaping ........................................................................................................................................ 14
Alcohol Use Levels After a Long Decline.................................................................................. 15

Chapter 3 Study Design and Procedures .............................................................................................. 16

Research Design and Procedures for the 12th-Grade Surveys ........................................................... 16
The Population under Study ....................................................................................................... 16
The Omission of Dropouts.......................................................................................................... 17
Sampling Procedures and Sample Weights ................................................................................ 17
Questionnaire Administration ..................................................................................................... 18
Questionnaire Format ................................................................................................................. 18
Research Design and Procedures for the 8th- and 10th-Grade Surveys .............................................. 18
Mode of Administration ............................................................................................................. 19
Questionnaire Forms and Sample Proportions ........................................................................... 19
Research Design and Procedures for the 12th-Grade Follow-up Surveys ......................................... 20
Follow-Up Procedures ................................................................................................................ 20
Follow-Up Questionnaire Format ............................................................................................... 21
Representativeness and Sample Accuracy ........................................................................................ 21
School Participation .................................................................................................................... 21
Student Participation ................................................................................................................... 23
Sampling Accuracy of the Estimates .......................................................................................... 24
Panel Surveys .................................................................................................................................... 24
Validity of Measures of Self-Reported Drug Use ............................................................................. 24
Consistency and Measurement of Trends ................................................................................... 26

iv
DETAILED CONTENTS (continued)

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Chapter 4 Prevalence and Frequency of Drug Use .............................................................................. 30

Prevalence and Frequency of Drug Use in 2017: All Students ......................................................... 30
Prevalence of Lifetime, Annual, and 30-Day Use ...................................................................... 30
Frequency of Lifetime, Annual, and 30-Day Use ....................................................................... 39
Prevalence of Current Daily Use ................................................................................................ 40
Noncontinuation Rates ...................................................................................................................... 41
Prevalence Comparisons for Important Subgroups ........................................................................... 42
Gender Differences ..................................................................................................................... 42
Differences Related to College Plans ......................................................................................... 45
Regional Differences .................................................................................................................. 46
Differences Related to Population Density ................................................................................. 48
Differences Related to Parental Education ................................................................................. 49
Racial/Ethnic Differences ........................................................................................................... 50
Interactions between Race/Ethnicity and Parental Education .................................................... 53

Chapter 5 Trends in Drug Use ........................................................................................................... 106

Two Themes in Drug Trends from 1975–2017 ............................................................................... 106
Trends in Prevalence of Use, 1975–2017 ........................................................................................ 107
Trends in Indices of Overall Illicit Drug Use ........................................................................... 107
Trends in Use of Specific Drugs ............................................................................................... 109
Summary ......................................................................................................................................... 127
Trends in Noncontinuation Rates: 12th Graders .............................................................................. 128
Implications for Prevention ............................................................................................................. 131
Trend Comparisons among Subgroups ........................................................................................... 131
Trend Differences by Gender ................................................................................................... 132
Trend Differences by College Plans ......................................................................................... 139
Trend Differences by Region of the Country ........................................................................... 145
Trend Differences by Population Density ................................................................................ 150
Trend Differences by Socioeconomic Status ............................................................................ 155
Racial/Ethnic Differences in Trends ......................................................................................... 161

Chapter 6 Initiation Rates and Trends in Initiation Rates .................................................................. 279

Incidence of Use by Grade Level .................................................................................................... 280
Trends in Lifetime Prevalence at Earlier Grade Levels .................................................................. 283
Drugs No Longer Tracked for Initiation Due to Low Levels of Use .............................................. 289

Chapter 7 Degree and Duration of Drug Highs .................................................................................. 319

Degree and Duration of Highs among 12th Graders in 2017 ........................................................... 319
Trends in Degree and Duration of Drug Highs ............................................................................... 321

Chapter 8 Attitudes and Beliefs about Drug Use ............................................................................... 344

Perceived Harmfulness of Drug Use ............................................................................................... 345
Beliefs about Harmfulness among 12th Graders ....................................................................... 345
v
DETAILED CONTENTS (continued)

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Risk from Regular Use ............................................................................................................. 345
Risk from Experimental Use .................................................................................................... 346
8th and 10th Graders’ Beliefs about Harmfulness ...................................................................... 346
Trends in Perceived Harmfulness of Drug Use ............................................................................... 348
Trends in Perceived Harmfulness among 12th Graders ............................................................ 348
Trends in Perceived Harmfulness among 8th and 10th Graders ................................................. 357
Personal Disapproval of Drug Use .................................................................................................. 360
Extent of Disapproval among 12th Graders............................................................................... 360
Extent of Disapproval among 8th and 10th Graders ................................................................... 361
Trends in Disapproval of Drug Use ................................................................................................ 362
Trends in Disapproval among 12th Graders .............................................................................. 362
Trends in Disapproval among 8th and 10th Graders .................................................................. 365
Attitudes Regarding the Legality of Drug Use ................................................................................ 367
Attitudes about Legality of Drug Use among 12th Graders ...................................................... 368
Trends in Attitudes about Legality of Drug Use among 12th Graders ...................................... 368
The Legal Status of Marijuana ........................................................................................................ 369
Attitudes and Predicted Responses to Legalization of Marijuana ............................................ 369
Trends in Attitudes and Predicted Responses to Legalization of Marijuana ............................ 371

Chapter 9 The Social Context ............................................................................................................ 421

Perceived Attitudes of Friends and Parents: 12th Graders ............................................................... 421
Perceptions of Friends’ Attitudes ............................................................................................. 421
A Comparison of the Attitudes of Parents, Peers, and 12th Graders ......................................... 422
Trends in Perceptions of Friends’ Attitudes ............................................................................. 423
Methodological Implications .................................................................................................... 425
Friends’ Use of Drugs ..................................................................................................................... 425
Exposure to Drug Use by Friends and Others: 12th Graders ..................................................... 426
Friends’ Use of Drugs: 8th and 10th Graders, 2017 ................................................................... 427
Trends in Exposure to Drug Use and Friends’ Use of Drugs .......................................................... 428
Trends in Exposure to Drug Use by Friends and Others: 12th Graders .................................... 428
Specific Drugs .......................................................................................................................... 428
Trends in Friends’ Drug Use: 8th and 10th Graders ................................................................... 430
Sources of Certain Prescription Drugs Used Without Medical Supervision ................................... 431
Perceived Availability of Drugs ...................................................................................................... 432
Perceived Availability of Drugs, 2017: All Grades .................................................................. 433
Trends in Perceived Availability for All Grades ...................................................................... 434
The Importance of Supply Reduction versus Demand Reduction ............................................ 440

Chapter 10 Study Publications ............................................................................................................ 501

Adolescents’ prescription stimulant use and adult functional outcomes:
A national prospective study ........................................................................................... 501
Age-related changes in associations between reasons for alcohol use and
high-intensity drinking across young adulthood ............................................................. 501
Age-specific prevalence of binge and high-intensity drinking among U. S. young adults:
Changes from 2005 to 2015 ............................................................................................ 502

vi
DETAILED CONTENTS (continued)

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Alcohol mixed with energy drink use during young adulthood ............................................... 502
Competitive sports participation in high school and subsequent substance use
in young adulthood: Assessing difference based on level of contact ............................. 503
Current high-intensity drinking among 8th and 10th grade students in the United States.......... 503
The developmental course of community service across the transition to adulthood
in a National U.S. sample .............................................................................................. 504
Do alcohol use reasons and contexts differentiate adolescent high-intensity drinking?
Data for U.S. high school seniors, 2005-2016 ............................................................... 504
Frequent binge drinking among U.S. adolescents, 1991-2015 ................................................. 505
Gender- and age-varying associations of sensation seeking and substance use
across young adulthood .................................................................................................. 505
High-intensity and simultaneous alcohol and marijuana use among high school seniors
in the U.S ........................................................................................................................ 506
High-intensity drinking and nonmedical use of prescription drugs: Results
from a national survey of 12th grade students ................................................................. 506
How collegiate fraternity and sorority involvement relates to substance use during
young adulthood and substance use disorders in early midlife: A national
longitudinal study ........................................................................................................... 507
Inverse propensity score weighting with a latent class exposure: Estimating the causal
effect of reported reasons for alcohol use on problem alcohol use 15 years later .......... 507
Joint effects of age, period, and cohort on conduct problems among American adolescents
from 1991 through 2015 ................................................................................................. 508
Marital status as a partial mediator of the associations between young adult substance use
and subsequent substance use disorder: Application of causal inference methods......... 508
Passing on pot: High school seniors’ reasons for not using marijuana as predictors
of future use .................................................................................................................... 509
Patterns of high-intensity drinking among young adults in the United States:
A repeated measures latent class analysis ....................................................................... 509
Patterns of simultaneous and concurrent alcohol and marijuana use among adolescents ........ 510
Prevalence and attitudes regarding marijuana use among adolescents over the past decade ... 510
Prevalence of concussion among U.S. adolescents and correlated factors ............................... 511
Prospective associations of 12th grade drinking intensity and age 19/20 driving-related
consequences in a national sample ................................................................................. 511
Reasons for vaping among U.S. 12th graders: A latent class analysis ...................................... 511
Risk is still relevant: Time-varying associations between perceived risk and marijuana
use among U.S. 12th grade students from 1991-2016 ..................................................... 512
A sequential mixed-mode experiment in the U.S. national Monitoring the Future Study ....... 512
Substance use behaviors and the timing of family formation during young adulthood ........... 513
Technology and interactive social media use among 8th and 10th graders in the U.S.
and associations with homework and school grades ....................................................... 513
U.S. adolescent alcohol use by race/ethnicity: Consumption and perceived need to
reduce/stop use ................................................................................................................ 514
Other Data on Correlates and Trends .............................................................................................. 514
Website ............................................................................................................................................ 514

Appendix A Prevalence and Trend Estimates Adjusted for Absentees and Dropouts .......................... 516

Corrections for 8th and 10th Grades ................................................................................................. 516
vii
DETAILED CONTENTS (continued)

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The Effects of Missing Absentees ................................................................................................... 517
The Effects of Missing Dropouts .................................................................................................... 517
Extrapolation Methods ............................................................................................................. 518
Effects of Omitting Dropouts in Trend Estimates .................................................................... 519
Further Exploration of Corrections for Dropouts ............................................................................ 520
Examples of Revised Estimates for Two Drugs .............................................................................. 522
Summary and Conclusions .............................................................................................................. 522

Appendix B Definition of Background and Demographic Subgroups ................................................. 527

Appendix C Trends in Specific Subclasses of Hallucinogens, Amphetamines,
Tranquilizers, Narcotic Drugs other than Heroin, and Sedatives ..................................... 531

Appendix D Trends in Drug Use for Three Grades Combined ............................................................. 549

viii
LIST OF TABLES

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Table 1-1 New and Deleted Prevalence of Use Questions for 8th, 10th, and 12th
Graders ................................................................................................................... 8
Table 3-1 Sample Sizes and Response Rates ....................................................................... 27
Table 4-1a Lifetime Prevalence of Use for 8th, 10th, and 12th Graders, 2017,
With Ninety-Five Percent Confidence Limits ...................................................... 54
Table 4-1b Annual Prevalence of Use for 8th, 10th, and 12th Graders, 2017,
With Ninety-Five Percent Confidence Limits ..................................................... 56
Table 4-1c 30-Day Prevalence of Use for 8th, 10th, and 12th Graders, 2017,
With Ninety-Five Percent Confidence Limits ...................................................... 58
Table 4-1d Daily Prevalence of Use for 8th, 10th, and 12th Graders, 2017, With
Ninety-Five Percent Confidence Limits ............................................................... 60
Table 4-2 Prevalence of Use of Various Drugs for 8th, 10th, and 12th Graders,
2017...................................................................................................................... 62
Table 4-3 Prevalence of Use of Heroin with and without a Needle for 8th, 10th,
and 12th Graders, 2017 ......................................................................................... 64
Table 4-4a Frequency of Use of Various Drugs: Lifetime, Annual, and 30-Day
for 8th, 10th, and 12th Graders, 2017 ..................................................................... 65
Table 4-4b Frequency of Occasions of Heavy Drinking, for 8th, 10th, and 12th
Graders, 2017 ....................................................................................................... 72
Table 4-4c Frequency of Occasions of Cigarette Smoking, and Smokeless
Tobacco Use for 8th, 10th, and 12th Graders, 2017 ............................................... 73
Table 4-4d Frequency of Days Used in Lifetime and Past 30 Days for Various
Tobacco and Other Substances for 8th, 10th, and 12th Graders, 2017 ................... 74
Table 4-5 Lifetime Prevalence of Use of Various Drugs by Subgroups for 8th,
10th, and 12th Graders, 2017 ................................................................................. 75
Table 4-6 Annual Prevalence of Use of Various Drugs by Subgroups for 8th,
10th, and 12th Graders, 2017 ................................................................................. 82
Table 4-7 Thirty-Day Prevalence of Use of Various Drugs by Subgroups for
8th, 10th, and 12th Graders, 2017 ........................................................................... 90
Table 4-8 Thirty-Day Prevalence of Daily Use of Various Drugs by
Subgroups for 8th, 10th, and 12th Graders, 2017 ................................................... 97
Table 5-1 Long-Term Trends in Lifetime Prevalence of Use of Various
Drugs in Grade 12 .............................................................................................. 170

ix