Table Of ContentModelling and Decisions in Economics
Franz Ferschl
Ulrike Leopold-Wildburger,
Gustav Feichtinger, Klaus-Peter Kistner (Eds.)
Modelling and Decisions
in Economics
Essays
in Honor
of Franz Ferschl
With 24 Figures
and 31 Tables
Springer-Verlag
Berlin Heidelberg GmbH
Prof. Dr. Ulrike Leopold-Wildburger
Department of Statistics and Operations Research
University of Graz
Universitătsstr. 15/E3
A-8010 Graz, Austria
Prof. Dr. Gustav Feichtinger
Department of Econometrics, Operations Research
and Systems Theory
University of Technology
Argentinierstr. 8/119
A-1040 Wien, Austria
Prof. Dr. Klaus-Peter Kistner
Faculty of Economics
University of Bielefeld
Postfach 10 O1 31
D-33501 Bielefeld, Germany
GefOrdert aus Mitteln der Stadt Graz und des Landes Steiermark.
ISBN 978-3-7908-2462-9
Librruy of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data
Die Deutsche Bibliothek - CIP-Einheitsaufnahme
Modelling and decisions in economics: essays in honor of Frank Ferschl; with 31 tables 1 Ulrike Leopold
Wildburger ... (ed.).
ISBN 978-3-7908-2462-9 ISBN 978-3-662-12519-9 (eBook)
DOI 10.1007/978-3-662-12519-9
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Preface
Franz Ferschl is seventy. According to his birth certificate it is true, but it is
unbelievable. Two of the three editors remembers very well the Golden Age of
Operations Research at Bonn when Franz Ferschl worked together with Wilhelm
Krelle, Martin Beckmann and Horst Albach. The importance of this fruitful
cooperation is reflected by the fact that half of the contributors to this book were
strongly influenced by Franz Ferschl and his colleagues at the University of Bonn.
Clearly, Franz Ferschl left his traces at all the other places of his professional
activities, in Vienna and Munich. This is demonstrated by the present volume as
well.
Born in 1929 in the Upper-Austrian Miihlviertel, his scientific education brought
him to Vienna where he studied mathematics. In his early years he was attracted
by Statistics and Operations Research. During his employment at the
Osterreichische Bundeskammer fUr Gewerbliche Wirtschaft in Vienna he prepared
his famous book on queueing theory and stochastic processes in economics. This
work has been achieved during his scarce time left by his duties at the
Bundeskammer, mostly between 6 a.m. and midnight.
All those troubles were, however, soon rewarded by the chair of statistics at Bonn
University. As a real Austrian, the amenities of the Rhineland could not prevent
him from returning to Vienna, where he took the chair of statistics.
Surprisingly this was only an intermezzo as he was absorbed by the Statistics
Department of the University of Munich. In the name of all contributors we want
to thank Franz Ferschl for his encouragement, his friendship and his helpfulness.
He is a broad scientist working not only in the field of stochastics and· OR, but
also on religion and philosophical issues as well as in algebraic topics. We wish
him many years of health and success in his research on finite groups.
Ad multos annos!
Gustav Feichtinger
Klaus-Peter Kistner
Ulrike Leopold-Wildburger
Contents
Part 1: Decision Theory 1
Some Ideas on Economics and Ethics 3
Wilhelm Krelle
Ethics and Operations Research 29
Christoph Schneeweiss
How to Measure Risk? 39
Georg Ch. Pflug
On the Question of Speculation in Favour of or
against the Euro before its Start 61
Lutz Beinsen
Resolving the Ellsberg Paradox by Assuming
that People Evaluate Repetitive Sampling 83
Hans Schneeweiss
Part 2: Statistics and Econometrics 97
Maximum Likelihood Estimation for the
VA R-VARCH Model: A New Approach 99
Shuangzhe Liu, Wolfgang Polasek
A Note on the Herfindahl Index of Concentration 115
Gerhart Bruckmann
A Generalization and Optimization of a Measure
of Diversity 119
Helmut Beran
VIII
A Subjective Bayes Approach to the Queueing
System MlEklc 139
Harald Schmidb auer, Angi Rosch
Cooperation as the Stimulating Power for the
Austrian Automobile Industry -
Results of an Empirical Study 157
Carola Kratzer, Ulrike Leopold-Wildburger
Part 3: Operations Research 171
Lot Sizing and Queueing Models
Some Remarks on KARMARKAR'S Model 173
Klaus-Peter Kistner
Analysis of MRP Policies with Recovery Options 189
Karllnderfurth, Thomas Jensen
Bidding for Research Funds 229
Martin J. Beckmann
Separate versus Joint Inventories when Customer
Demands are Stochastic 239
GUnter Fandel, Michael Lorth
Optimal Macroeconomic' Policies with and without
the Monetary Instrument 255
Reinhard Neck
Dynamic Economic Models of Optimal Law
Enforcement 269
Gustav Feichtinger
List of Contributors 295
Part 1:
Decision Theory
Some Ideas on Economics and Ethics
Wilhelm Krelle
Institut fur Gesellschafts- und Wirtschaftswissenschaften
Universitat Bonn
Abstract
In this paper we discuss the influence of ethics on the decisions of persons
within the context of mutual influences of one person on another. We show
that this influence may be modelled as a a Markov chain which converges
to a final situation independent of the initial conditions. Different types of
decisions are considered. At the end the reverse influence is considered: that
of the economic development on ethics.
1 Introd uction
It is a pleasure to contribute to the Festschrift in honour of Franz Ferschl at
occasion of his 70. birthday. Statistics is a science where the basic concepts
are subject to philosophical interpretations. Franz Ferschl was always aware
of it. This may be seen from his introduction to measure theory and the
theory of index numbers where he writes: "Wie kaum bei anderen Teilen der
statistischen Methodenlehre zeigt sich hier, wie flieBend die Grenzen zwis
chen einzelwissenschaftlicher und statistisch-methodologischer Argumenta
tion ist" (FerschI1978, p. 141). The theory presented here depends on index
numbers derived by the method of inquiries. The decision theory applied
here is the same as demonstrated in his book "Nutzen- und Entscheidungs
theorie" (Ferschl 1975, p. 9 ff.). Thus I may hope that Franz, myoId friend
and faculty collegue, enjoys this non-statistical contribution.
Ethics, where economics started from in classical antiquity, has reentered
economics. There are more and more articles to be found in the literature
which deal with ethical problems in a market economy (see the literature
cited at the end). Thus, I think, it is time to analyze the relation of ethics
and economics in general, i. e. to show where ethics influences economics (and
