Modeling Road Accident Data of Saudi Arabia

106 Pages·2015·1.73 MB·English

by  University Libraries

Modeling Road Accident Data of Saudi
Arabia

A THESIS
SUBMITTED TO THE GRADUATE EDUCATIONAL POLLCIES COUNCIL
IN PARTIAL FULFILLMENT OF THE REQUIREMENTS

For the degree
MASTER OF SCIENCE

By
Abdulrahman Alshammari
Advisor Dr. Rahmatullah Imon

Ball State University
Muncie, Indiana
May 2015
ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS

Foremost, I would like to express my sincere gratitude to my advisor Professor Dr. Rahmatullah
Imon for the continuous support of my thesis study, for his patience, motivation, enthusiasm, and
immense knowledge. His guidance helped me in all the time during my analysis and writing the
report. I could not have imagined having a better advisor and mentor for my thesis other than
him. Besides my advisor, I would like to thank the rest of my thesis committee: Dr. Munni
Begum and Dr. Yayuan Xiao for their encouragement, insightful comments and patience. I am
thankful to all my classmates for their kind supports. Last but not the least; I would like to thank
my family: my mother, my brothers and sisters, for supporting me throughout my life.

Abdulrahman Alshammari
March 25, 2015
Table of Contents
CHAPTER 1 1
INTRODUCTION 1
1.1 Saudi Arabia Road Accident Data 1
1.3 Outline of the Study 10

CHAPTER 2 11
ESTIMATION OF MISSING VALUES, CROSS VALIDATION AND ARIMA MODELS IN TIME SERIES
2.1 Estimation of Missing Values 11
2.2 Estimation of Missing Values in Time Series 13
2.3 Robust Estimation Methods 16
2.4 Bootstrap 21
2.5 Stochastic Time Series Modeling 25
2.6 Cross Validation in Time Series 39
2.7 Computation 43
CHAPTER 3 44
ESTIMATION OF MISSING VALUES BY ROBUST EM AND BOOTSTRAP ALGORITHM FOR SAUDI
ARABIA ROAD ACCIDENT DATA 44
3.1 Estimation of Missing Values Error! Bookmark not defined.
3.2 Evaluation of Estimation of Missing Values 50
CHAPTER 4 59
SELECTION OF ARIMA MODELS FOR SAUDI ARABIA ROAD ACCIDENTS DATA 59
4.1 Total Number of Road Accidents in Saudi Arabia 59
4.2 Total Number of Road Accidents in Riyadh 62
4.3 Total Number of Road Accidents in Mecca 64
4.4 Total Number of Road Accidents in Eastern Province 66
4.5 Total Number of Road Accidents in Medina 68
4.6 Total Number of Road Accidents in Al Qassim 70
4.7 Total Number of Road Accidents in Tabuk 73
4.9 Total Number of Road Accidents in Asir 75
4.10 Total Number of Road Accidents in Albahih 77
4.11 Total Number of Road Accidents in Northern Borders 79
4.12 Total Number of Road Accidents in Al Jouf 81
4.13 Total Number of Road Accidents in Ha'il 84
4.14 Total Number of Road Accidents in Najran 86
4.15 Total Number of Road Accidents in Jizan 88
4.17 Result Summary 90
CHAPTER 5 92
CONCLUSIONS AND DIRECTION OF FUTURE RESEARCH 92
5.1 Conclusions 92
5.2 Direction of Future Research 93
REFERENCES 94
List of Tables
Chapter 1

Table 1.1: Total Number of Road Accidents in Saudi Arabia 2
Table 1.2: Total Number of Road Accidents in Riyadh 2

Chapter 2

Table 2.1: Specification of ARIMA Models 39

Chapter 3

Table 3.1: Estimates of Missing Values for the Year 2003 Using Conventional Methods 44
Table 3.2: Estimates of Missing Values for the Year 2004 Using Conventional Methods 44
Table 3.3: Estimates of Missing Values for 2003 Using EM Robust Time Series Methods 47
Table 3.4: Estimates of Missing Values for 2004 Using EM Robust Time Series Methods 48
Table 3.5: Estimates of Missing Values for 2003 Using EM Robust Time Series Methods 48
Table 3.6: Estimates of Missing Values for 2004 Using EM Robust Time Series Methods 49
Table 3.7: A Comparison Between Exact and Estimated Values of the Total Number of
Road Accidents for 2004 in Saudi Arabia 50
Table 3.8: Total Number of Road Accidents in Saudi Arabia after the Missing Value
Estimation 51
Table 3.9: Total Number of Road Accidents in Different Region of Saudi Arabia after the 52
Missing Value Estimation
Chapter 4

Table 4.1: The ACF and PACF Values for the Total Number of Road Accidents in Saudi
Arabia 60
Table 4.2: Significance of ARIMA models fir the Number of Road Accidents in Saudi
Arabia 61
Table 4.3: The ACF and PACF Values for the Total Number of Road Accidents in Riyadh 62
Table 4.4: Significance of ARIMA models fir the Number of Road Accidents in Riyadh 63
Table 4.5: The ACF and PACF Values for the Total Number of Road Accidents in Mecca 64
Table 4.6: Significance of ARIMA models fir the Number of Road Accidents in Mecca 65
Table 4.7: The ACF and PACF Values for the Total Number of Road Accidents in E
Province 66
Table 4.8: Significance of ARIMA models fir the Number of Road Accidents in E
Province 67
Table 4.9: The ACF and PACF Values for the Total Number of Road Accidents in
Medina 69
Table 4.10: Significance of ARIMA models fir the Number of Road Accidents in Medina 69
Table 4.11: The ACF and PACF Values for the Total Number of Road Accidents in
Qassim 71
Table 4.12: Significance of ARIMA models fir the Number of Road Accidents in Qassim 72
Table 4.13: The ACF and PACF Values for the Total Number of Road Accidents in
Tabuk 73
Table 4.14: Significance of ARIMA models fir the Number of Road Accidents in Tabuk 74
Table 4.15: The ACF and PACF Values for the Total Number of Road Accidents in Asir 75
Table 4.16: Significance of ARIMA models fir the Number of Road Accidents in Asir 76
Table 4.17: The ACF and PACF Values for the Total Number of Road Accidents in
Albhih 77
Table 4.18: Significance of ARIMA models fir the Number of Road Accidents in Albahih 78
Table 4.19: The ACF and PACF Values for the Total Number of Road Accidents in N
Borders 80
Table 4.20: Significance of ARIMA models fir the Number of Road Accidents in N
Borders 80
Table 4.21: The ACF and PACF Values for the Total Number of Road Accidents in Al
Jouf 82
Table 4.22: Significance of ARIMA models fir the Number of Road Accidents in Al Jouf 83
Table 4.23: The ACF and PACF Values for the Total Number of Road Accidents in Ha’il 84
Table 4.24 Significance of ARIMA models fir the Number of Road Accidents in Ha’il 85
Table 4.25: The ACF and PACF Values for the Total Number of Road Accidents in
Najran 86
Table 4.26: Significance of ARIMA models fir the Number of Road Accidents in Najran 87
Table 4.27: The ACF and PACF Values for the Total Number of Road Accidents in Jizan 88
Table 4.28: Significance of ARIMA models fir the Number of Road Accidents in Jizan 89
Table 4.29 Selected Models for Saudi Arabia Road Accident Data 90
List of Figures
Chapter 1
Figure 1.1: The Political Map of Saudi Arabia with Different Regions 2
Figure 1.2: Time Series Plot of Total Road Accidents in Saudi Arabia 5
Figure 1.3: Time Series Plot of Total Road Accidents in Riyadh 5
Figure 1.4: Time Series Plot of Total Road Accidents in Mecca 5
Figure 1.5: Time Series Plot of Total Road Accidents in Eastern Province 6
Figure 1.6: Time Series Plot of Total Road Accidents in Medina 6
Figure 1.7: Time Series Plot of Total Road Accidents in Al Qassim 6
Figure 1.8: Time Series Plot of Total Road Accidents in Tabuk 7
Figure 1.9: Time Series Plot of Total Road Accidents in Asir 7
Figure 1.10: Time Series Plot of Total Road Accidents in Albahih 7
Figure 1.11: Time Series Plot of Total Car Accident in Northern Borders 8
Figure 1.12: Time Series Plot of Total Car Accident in Al Jouf 8
Figure 1.13: Time Series Plot of Total Car Accident in Ha’il 8
Figure 1.14: Time Series Plot of Total Car Accident in Najran 9
Figure 1.15: Time Series Plot of Total Car Accident in Jizan 9

Chapter 2
Figure 2.1: A Schematic Diagram of Bootstrap and Simulation 23
Chapter 3
Figure 3.1: Time Series Plot of Original and Estimated Road Accidents in Saudi Arabia 54
Figure 3.2: Time Series Plot of Original and Estimated Road Accidents in Riyadh 54
Figure 3.3: Time Series Plot of Original and Estimated Road Accidents in Mecca 54
Figure 3.4: Time Series Plot of Original and Estimated Road Accidents in E Province 55
Figure 3.5: Time Series Plot of Original and Estimated Road Accidents in Medina 55
Figure 3.6: Time Series Plot of Original and Estimated Road Accidents in Al Qassim 55
Figure 3.7: Time Series Plot of Original and Estimated Road Accidents in Tabuk 56
Figure 3.8: Time Series Plot of Original and Estimated Road Accidents in Asir 56
Figure 3.9: Time Series Plot of Original and Estimated Road Accidents in Albahih 56
Figure 3.10: Time Series Plot of Original and Estimated Road Accidents in N Borders 57
Figure 3.11: Time Series Plot of Original and Estimated Road Accidents in Al Jouf 57
Figure 3.12: Time Series Plot of Original and Estimated Road Accidents in Ha’il 57
Figure 3.13: Time Series Plot of Original and Estimated Road Accidents in Najran 58
Figure 3.14: Time Series Plot of Original and Estimated Road Accidents in Jizan 58

Chapter 4
Figure 4.1: The ACF and PACF Values for the Total Number of Road Accidents in Saudi
Arabia 59
Figure 4.2: The ACF and PACF Values for the Total Number of Road Accidents in
Riyadh 62
Figure 4.3: The ACF and PACF Values for the Total Number of Road Accidents in Mecca 64
Figure 4.4: The ACF and PACF Values for the Total Number of Road Accidents in E
Province 66
Figure 4.5: The ACF and PACF Values for the Total Number of Road Accidents in
Medina 68
Figure 4.6: The ACF and PACF Values for the Total Number of Road Accidents in
Qassim 71
Figure 4.7: The ACF and PACF Values for the Total Number of Road Accidents in Tabuk 73
Figure 4.8: The ACF and PACF Values for the Total Number of Road Accidents in Asir 75
Figure 4.9: The ACF and PACF Values for the Total Number of Road Accidents in
Albahih 77
Figure 4.10: The ACF and PACF Values for the Total Number of Road Accidents in N
Borders 79
Figure 4.11: The ACF and PACF Values for the Total Number of Road Accidents in Al
Jouf 82
Figure 4.12: The ACF and PACF Values for the Total Number of Road Accidents in Ha’il 84
Figure 4.13: The ACF and PACF Values for the Total Number of Road Accidents in
Najran 86
Figure 4.14: The ACF and PACF Values for the Total Number of Road Accidents in Jizan 88