Table Of ContentAnticipation Science 6
Valentina Boschetto Doorly
Megatrends
Defining
the Future
of Tourism
A Journey Within the Journey in 12
Universal Truths
Anticipation Science
Volume 6
Editor-in-Chief
Roberto Poli, University of Trento, Trento, Italy
Anticipation Science encompasses natural, formal, and social systems that
intentionally or unintentionally use ideas of a future to act in the present, with a
broad focus on humans, institutions, and human-designed systems. Our aim is to
enhance the repertoire of resources for developing ideas of the future, and for
expanding and deepening the ability to use the future. Some questions that the
Series intends to address are the following: When does anticipation occur in
behavior and life? Which types of anticipation can be distinguished? Which
properties of our environment change the pertinence of different types of
anticipation? Whichstructuresandprocessesarenecessary for anticipatoryaction?
Whichisthebehavioralimpactofanticipation?Howcananticipationbemodeled?
The series is interested in receiving book proposals that:
(cid:129) are aimed at an academic audience of graduate level and up
(cid:129) combine applied and/or theoretical and/or philosophical
studieswithworkespeciallyfromdisciplineswithinthehumanandsocialsciences
broadlyconceived.The series editors aimtomake afirstdecisionwithin2months
of submission. In case of a positive first decision the work will be provisionally
contracted: the final decision about publication will depend upon the result of the
anonymouspeerreviewofthecompletemanuscript.Theserieseditorsaimtohave
the work peer-reviewed within 4 months after submission of the complete
manuscript. The series editors discourage the submission of manuscripts that are
below150printedpages(75,000words).Forinquiriesandsubmissionofproposals
prospective authors can contact the editor-in-chief:
Roberto Poli: [email protected]
More information about this series at http://www.springer.com/series/15713
Valentina Boschetto Doorly
fi
Megatrends De ning
the Future of Tourism
A Journey Within the Journey in 12 Universal
Truths
123
Valentina Boschetto Doorly
DunLaoghaire, Ireland
ISSN 2522-039X ISSN 2522-0403 (electronic)
Anticipation Science
ISBN978-3-030-48625-9 ISBN978-3-030-48626-6 (eBook)
https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-48626-6
©SpringerNatureSwitzerlandAG2020
Thisworkissubjecttocopyright.AllrightsarereservedbythePublisher,whetherthewholeorpart
of the material is concerned, specifically the rights of translation, reprinting, reuse of illustrations,
recitation, broadcasting, reproduction on microfilms or in any other physical way, and transmission
orinformationstorageandretrieval,electronicadaptation,computersoftware,orbysimilarordissimilar
methodologynowknownorhereafterdeveloped.
The use of general descriptive names, registered names, trademarks, service marks, etc. in this
publicationdoesnotimply,evenintheabsenceofaspecificstatement,thatsuchnamesareexemptfrom
therelevantprotectivelawsandregulationsandthereforefreeforgeneraluse.
The publisher, the authors and the editors are safe to assume that the advice and information in this
book are believed to be true and accurate at the date of publication. Neither the publisher nor the
authorsortheeditorsgiveawarranty,expressorimplied,withrespecttothematerialcontainedhereinor
for any errors or omissions that may have been made. The publisher remains neutral with regard to
jurisdictionalclaimsinpublishedmapsandinstitutionalaffiliations.
ThisSpringerimprintispublishedbytheregisteredcompanySpringerNatureSwitzerlandAG
Theregisteredcompanyaddressis:Gewerbestrasse11,6330Cham,Switzerland
I have always been searching.
So far I have found much more than
I was hoping for.
This book is a journey within the journey.
Dedicated to all those who travel, in body
and mind.
Acknowledgments
Sincere thanks to Prof. Roberto Poli, Ph.D. UNESCO Chair in Anticipatory
Systems, Departmentof Sociology and Social Research University of Trento,who
instigatedthewritingof thisbook,allowingmetounlock andreleasetwodecades
ofindustryobservationsandanticipations.Thankstoallmycolleagues,friendsand
professionals, with whom I have worked, debated and eviscerated any and every
angleoftheTravelandTourismIndustrythroughoutitsprogressesandchallenges.
Special thanks to the review panel who has offered their precious feedback on
the manuscript: Prof. Roberto Poli, Rachel Haslam Senior Strategist at JWTFolks,
Dublin; Valerie Steinbeck Head of Group Marketing Division, Sales and Revenue
at Gleneagle Group, Kerry, Ireland; Fiona Herald, Sales Director at Guinness
StorehouseDublin.ThankstoCiaranRoweHeadofProductandDigitalMarketing
atBookassist,Dublin;JamieTannerDirectorofProduction andtheVstream team,
Virtual Reality and Digital Media Dublin.
Anticipation matters.
ix
Contents
1 Introduction: Travel and Tourism: An Industry Is Born
in Four Milestones . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1
References . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8
2 Travel and Tourism Universal Truth: Why Do We Travel?. . . . . . . 9
References . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 15
3 Megatrends, Macro-Trends, Trends and Fads: Jargon
Explained . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 17
Reference. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 25
4 The Technological Revolution Impacting on Travel
Tourism and Hospitality Industry. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 27
4.1 Introduction: The Changing Nature of Tourism . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 27
4.2 Holiday Anticipation Trends: From Holiday Anticipation
to Holiday Pre-experiencing . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 30
4.3 Holiday Booking Patterns and Logistics:
The “Anytime-Anywhere-Holiday”. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 38
4.4 Holiday Fruition: Mediated, Augmented, Seamless:
Never Lost, Never Bored . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 43
4.5 Socialization of Holiday Experience: From F.O.M.O.
to J.O.M.O. and Back. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 51
References . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 57
5 Upside-Down Pyramids: A Demographic Revolution Unfolded. . . . . 59
5.1 The Soaring Numbers of Silver Tourism . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 59
5.2 The New Seniors: Older & Bolder. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 65
5.3 New Travelling Formats: Solo Travelling, Multigenerational
and Loose . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 69
xi
xii Contents
5.4 A Loneliness Pandemic? It’s a Dogs’ World . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 78
5.5 Old Is the New Cool: The Surprising Curve of Happiness . . . . . . 81
References . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 84
6 Climate Change and Its Impact on TT&H Industry. . . . . . . . . . . . . 87
6.1 Climate Change and the Emperor’s New Clothes Paradigm . . . . . 87
6.2 How Will Climate Change Affect the Travel Tourism and
Hospitality Industry?. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 92
6.2.1 Amenity Migration . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 93
6.2.2 Extreme Weather Events and Solidarity Tourism. . . . . . . . 95
6.2.3 Water Contention. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 97
6.2.4 Sustainable Holidays, Trains and New Transport
Modes. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 100
6.3 A Case Study: The Alpine Chain’s Adaptation to Climate
Change . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 103
6.3.1 Alpine Tourism Economy . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 103
6.3.2 The Impact of Climate Change on the Alps:
Double the Rate in Average Temperature Increase. . . . . . . 106
6.3.3 Mitigation, Adaptation, Transformative Changes
Taking Place in the Tourism Economy . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 107
6.4 Viewpoint on Climate Change. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 110
References . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 115
7 Globalisation: A Megatrend on Its Last Legs? . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 119
7.1 Introduction . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 119
7.2 Mass Movement, Over-Tourism and Multiplication of
Destinations. Have we Entered The Golden Age
of Tourism or Have we Reached the Tipping Point?. . . . . . . . . . . 126
7.3 Polarisation of Wealth and the Irresistible Ascent
of Luxury Tourism. Rent Me a City . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 133
7.4 Distribution Channels and More: A Capitalism of Platforms’
Monopolies . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 140
References . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 149
8 De-Globalisation: A Newly Born Megatrend. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 151
8.1 Introduction: The Day Santa Claus was Kidnapped . . . . . . . . . . . 151
8.2 De-Globalisation in Travel and Tourism: The Great
Spill Over and the Quiet Charme of the Less Famous . . . . . . . . . 158
8.3 Digital Detox and the Forgotten Body . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 163
8.4 The Age of Opinions: Responsible Tourism, Activism
and Boycott Tourism . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 172
References . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 177
