(Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, Uzbekistan and Afghanistan).

302 Pages·2013·6 MB·English

UNIVERSITÀ DEGLI STUDI DI TRIESTE

Sede amministrativa del Dottorato di Ricerca

Sedi Consorziate (IUIES)

Università degli Studi di Udine - Università di Klagenfurt - Università MGIMO di Mosca -
Università di Nova Gorica - Università Jagiellonica di Cracovia - Università Eotvos Lorand di
Budapest - Università Babes-Bolyai di Cluj-Napoca - Università Comenius di Bratislava - Istituto di
Sociologia Internazionale di Gorizia

XXV CICLO DEL

DOTTORATO DI RICERCA IN

POLITICHE TRANSFRONTALIERE PER LA VITA QUOTIDIANA
TRANSBORDER POLICIES FOR DAILY LIFE

Dialogue, Stability and Security in the Central Asia Region:
Comparative study on the EU and the NATO commitments in the
Central Asia-region (Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan,
Turkmenistan, Uzbekistan and Afghanistan).

(Settore scientifico-disciplinare: SPS/11)

DOTTORANDO: COORDINATORE DEL COLLEGIO DEI DOCENTI
Toni CAPORRELLA CHIAR.MO PROF. LUIGI PELLIZZONI
UNIVERSITÀ DI TRIESTE

RELATORE
CHIAR.MO PROF. Vasile PUSCAS
UNIVERSITÀ DI CLUJ – NAPOCA (ROMANIA)

ANNO ACCADEMICO 2011/2012
TABLE OF CONTENTS

ABSTRACT………………………………………………………………………………………..6
ACRONYMS ………………………………….…………………………………………………..7

- PART 1 -
CHAPTER I
THE STATE OF INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS IN CHANGED MULTILATER SYSTEM

1.1 Chapter layout and Research Objectives………………………………………………………11
1.2 Problem statement……………………………………………………………………………..12
1.3 Literature review………………………………………………………………………………16
1.4 Research Methodology………………………………………………………………………...25
1.5 Overview of Russia and Central Asia States…………………………………………..............28
1.5.1 Russia………………………………………………………………………………………29
1.5.2 Kazakhstan…………………………………………………………………………………32
1.5.3 Tajikistan…………………………………………………………………………………...33
1.5.4 Turkmenistan……………………………………………………………………………….35
1.5.5 Kyrgyzstan………………………………………………………………………………….37
1.5.6 Uzbekistan………………………………………………………………………………….39
1.5.7 Afghanistan…………………………………………………………………………………41
1.6 Russia influence and cooperation with the Central Asia States………………………………..43

CHAPTER II
THE EUROPEAN UNION (E.U.) AND NORTH ATLANTIC TREATY ORGANIZATION
(NATO) INTERESTS IN CENTRAL ASIA

2.1 The Europeans in C.A.: The EU and NATO Strategic Interests………..……………………...49
2.2 The European Union Policy and Instruments. ..…………..……………………………………54
2.3 The E.U Regional Strategies……………………………….…………………………………...61
2.4 European Committee 2007-2013 Regional Assistance Strategy for C.A. Region….…………..64
2.5 E.U. Human rights, Rule of Law, Good Governance and Democratization …………………...66
2.6 E.U. as promoter of Development, Trade and Democratization.....…………………………….70
2.7 Facing common threats and challenges…………………………………………………………75
2.8 Dual Approach: the German Bilateral and Regional approach…………………………………78
2.9 E.U. and the Security Sector Reform (SSR)…………………………………………………….89
2.10 Conclusion: the way forward………………………………………………………………..87
2
CHAPTER III
THE NATO THE NATO STRATEGIC AND SECURITY INTERESTS IN THE C.A. REGION

3.1 An overview of the NATO………………………………………………………………...........90
3.2 NATO Strategic Concept………………………………………………………………….........94
3.3 The NATO Euro-Partnership and the Partnership for Peace (PfP)……………..…………........96
3.4 NATO and C.A. States cooperation…………………………………………………………….98
3.4.1 NATO and Kazakhstan Cooperation…………………………………..………………........99
3.4.2 NATO and Kyrgyzstan Cooperation…………………………………..…………………..102
3.4.3 NATO and Uzbekistan Cooperation…………………………………..…………………..105
3.4.4 NATO and Turkmenistan Cooperation………………………………..…………………..107
3.4.5 NATO and Tajikistan Cooperation…………………………………..……………….......109
3.4.6 NATO and Afghanistan Cooperation…………………………………..……………….…111
3.5 Silk-Afghanistan, an example of Regional Cooperation………………………………………116
3.6 A new Framework for Security Assistance Force (SFA)………………………………….......117
3.7 Conclusion……………………………………………………………………………………..121

- PART 2 -

CHAPTER IV
TECHNICAL METHODOLOGY

4.1 Technical Methodology, Data, Survey and Profiles ……………………………………..........123
4.2 Selecting Variables………………………………………………………………………….....126
4.3 Standardization, Weighting, Income and wellbeing scores……………………………………127
4.4 Sub-Index scores and Ranking…………………………………………………………….......128
4.5 Sub-Index description……………………………………………………………………….....129
4.5.1 Economy sub-Index…….………………………………………………………………….129
4.5.2 Governance sub-Index……………………………………………………………………..131
4.5.3 Education sub-Index……………………………………………………………………….133
4.5.4 Security & Safety Sub-Index………………………………………………………………135
4.6 The C.A Countries and the Sub-Indexes………………………………………………………138
4.6.1 Governance………………………………………………………………………………...153
4.6.2 Economy…………………………………………………………………………………...157
4.6.3 Education…………………………………………………………………………………..159
4.6.4 Security & Safety………………………………………………………………………….161
3
4.7 Conclusion……………………………………………………………………………………..170
4.7.1 The general model…………………………………………………………………………170
4.7.2 The surveys………………………………………………………………………………...172
4.7.3 Profiles, Quarterly Reports and Qualitative Case Studies…………………………………173

CHAPTER V
ANALYSIS, EXPLAINING THE CHANGE……………………………………………………..174

5.1 Kazakhstan……………………………………………………………………………………175
5.1.1 Geography………………………………………………………………………................175
5.1.2 Society……………………………………………………………………………………..176
5.1.3 Governance………………………………………………………………………………...177
5.1.4 Economy…………………………………………………………………………………...178
5.1.5 Education…………………………………………………………………………………..182
5.1.6 Security & Safety................………………………………………………………………183
5.2 Kyrgyzstan……………………………………………………………………………………185
5.2.1 Geography….……………………………………………………………………………...185
5.2.2 Society……………………………………………………………………………………..186
5.2.3 Governance………………………………………………………………………………...187
5.2.4 Economy…………………………………………………………………………………...189
5.2.5 Education…………………………………………………………………………………..192
5.2.6 Security & Safety………………………………………………………………………….193
5.3 Tajikistan……………………………………………………………………………………...195
5.3.1 Geography…………………………………………………………………………………195
5.3.2 Society……………………………………………………………………………………..196
5.3.3 Governance………………………………………………………………………………...199
5.3.4 Economy…………………………………………………………………………………...199
5.3.5 Education…………………………………………………………………………………..202
5.3.6 Security & Safety………………………………………………………………………….203
5.4 Turkmenistan…………………………………………………………………………………205
5.4.1 Geography…………………………………………………………………………………205
5.4.2 Society……………………………………………………………………………………..206
5.4.3 Governance………………………………………………………………………………...207
5.4.4 Economy…………………………………………………………………………………...208
5.4.5 Education…………………………………………………………………………………..211
4
5.4.6 Security & Safety………………………………………………………………………….212
5.5 Uzbekistan…………………………………………………………………………………….213
5.5.1 Geography…………………………………………………………………………………213
5.5.2 Society……………………………………………………………………………………..214
5.5.3 Governance………………………………………………………………………………...215
5.5.4 Economy…………………………………………………………………………………...217
5.5.5 Education…………………………………………………………………………………..219
5.5.6 Security & Safety………………………………………………………………………….221
5.6 Afghanistan…………………………………………………………………………………...223
5.6.1 Geography………….……………………………………………………………………...223
5.6.2 Society……………………………………………………………………………………..224
5.6.3 Governance………………………………………………………………………………...225
5.6.4 Economy…………………………………………………………………………………...226
5.6.5 Education…………………………………………………………………………………..232
5.6.6 Security & Safety………………………………………………………………………….233
5.6.7 Afghanistan Future………………………………………………………………………...236
5.6.8 Afghanistan Designated as a Major Non-NATO Ally…………………………………….237
5.6.9 Conclusion…………………………………………………………………………………239

CHAPTER VI
THE DEVELOPMENT OF CENTRAL ASIA COUNTRIES: COMPARATIVE PERSPECTIVE
……………………………………………………………………………………………………..241
6.1 Comparative Analysis.………………………………………………………………………...241
6.2 Impact of EU and NATO efforts on the CA countries: Empirical analysis…………………...244
6.3 Impact of Economic Impact……………………………………………………………...........251
6.4 Security and Safety Impact…………………………………………………………………….255
6.5 The “energy game”…………………………………………………………….........................261
6.6 Changes?………………………………………………………………………………………268
6.7 Room for Cooperation?………………………………………………………………………..269
6.8 EU “regional approach” outcome .…………………………………………………………….270
6.9 Conclusions……………………………………………………………………………………272

Bibliography………………………………………………………………………………………281
Annexes……………………………………………………………………………………………296
5
LIST OF ABBREVIATIONS

ABP Afghan Border Police

ACG Armed Criminal Group

ADAM Automated Donor Assistance Mechanism

ADB Asian Development Bank

ALP Afghan Local Police

ANA Afghan National Army

ANP Afghan National Police

ANSF Afghan National Security Forces

AOG Armed Opposition Group

APRP Afghanistan Peace and Reintegration Program

BBIED Body Borne Improvised Explosive Device (suicide vest)

BCP Border crossing point

BO Border outpost

BOMCA Border Management Program in Central Asia

CA Central Asia

CABSI Central Asian Border Systems Initiative

CADAP Central Asia Drug Action Program

CAREC Central Asia Regional Environment Centre

CARICC Central Asia Regional Intelligence and Coordination Centre

CF Coalition Forces

CFSP Common Foreign and Security Policy

CIA Central Intelligence Agency (U.S.)

CICA Conference on Interaction and Confidence-Building Measures in Asia

CIP Critical Infrastructure Protection

7
CIS Commonwealth of Independent States

CN Counter-Narcotics

COIN counter-insurgency

CSTO Collective Security Treaty Organization

DAC District Administrative Centre

DCI Development Cooperation Instrument

DPU Drug Profiling Unit

EBRD European Bank for Reconstruction and Development

EC European Communities

ECE Economic Commission for Europe (also UNECE/United Nations Economic Commission for
Europe)

ECHO European Commission’s Directorate General for Humanitarian Assistance

EECCA E astern Europe, Caucasus and Central Asia

EIB European Investment Bank

EIDHR European Initiative for Democracy and Human Rights

EMECW Erasmus Mundus External Cooperation Window

ENPI European Neighborhood and Partnership Instrument

ESDP European Security Defense Policy

EU European Union

EUPOL European Police Mission in Afghanistan

Eurasec Eurasian Economic Community

EUSR European Union Special Representative

EUWI European Union Water Initiative

FATF Financial Action Task Force

FLEG Forest Law Enforcement and Governance

GAERC General Affairs and External Relations Council

8
GSP Generalized System of Preferences

HR/SG High Representative for the Common Foreign and Security Policy of the European
Union/Secretary-General of the Council of the European Union

IAEA International Atomic Energy Agency

IAGS Illegal Armed Groups

IBPP Institution Building Partnership Program

IED Improvised Explosive Device

IFI international financial institution

IGC Intergovernmental Commission

ILO International Labor Organization

INOGATE Interstate Oil and Gas Transport to Europe

ISAF International Security Assistance Force

IT information technology

JCMB Joint Coordination and Monitoring Board

MDGs Millennium Development Goals

MoD Ministry of Defense (Afghan)

MoI Ministry of Interior

MoU Memorandum of Understanding

MP Member of Parliament

NATO North Atlantic Treaty Organization

NDS National Directorate of Security

NGO non-governmental organization

NTM-A NATO Training Mission - Afghanistan

ODIHR Office for Democratic Institutions and Human Rights

OECD Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development

OSCE Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe

9
PCA Partnership and Cooperation Agreement

PRSP Poverty Reduction Strategy Paper

PRT Provincial Reconstruction Team

PSC Private Security Company

RCIED Remote Controlled Improvised Explosive Device

SAF Small Arms Fire

SCO Shanghai Cooperation Organization

SFA Security Force Assistance

SME small and medium-sized enterprises

SSR Security Sector Reform

SVBIED Suicide Vehicle Borne Improvised Explosive Device

TEMPUS Trans-European mobility scheme for university studies

TRACECA Transport Corridor Europe-Caucasus-Central Asia

UN United Nations

UNAMA United Nations Assistance Mission in Afghanistan

UNDP United Nations Development Program

UNECE United Nations Economic Commission for Europe (also ECE)

UNODC United Nations Office on Drugs and Crime

US United States of America

USAID U.S. Agency for International Development

VBIED Vehicle Borne Improvised Explosive Device

WFP World Food Program

WTO World Trade Organization

10
ABSTRACT

Using notions of Change developed by Thomas Kuhn, Governance by Michael Walzer and
Persistent Conflicts and New Wars by Mary Kaldor, this thesis argues that the stability, security and
cooperation among States as a whole, and in Central Asia States in particular are threaded by
different issues as state collapse, religious extremist, terrorism, illegal narcotic and weapons
trafficking. The attempt to find an ideal solution and the definition of common understanding have
been hardly implemented due to different national interests and regional Powers’ pressure. Since the
Soviet Union collapse, NATO and European Union institutions have adopted various political,
economical, military instruments in order to pave the way of dialogue, cooperation, stability and
security among states and in particular in the central Asia countries. As a result, both the theory and
the practice of International Relations are in the midst of a paradigm shift. Emerging from this shift
is particular global configuration of the practice of international relations. Kuhn’s thought of
“incommensurability” appear to typify the relationship between the two components, while
Kaldor’s concept explain the characteristic of contemporary civil conflicts, helping to understand
the changed nature of intrastate warfare in terms of factors behind the wars: politics of warfare,
economy of warfare, military strategies and religions struggles. Walzer proposes an international
system lying between the antipodes, a thoroughly centralized global government under which all
individuals are equal citizens of the world on the far left. As a result, such a system foresees the
lack of sovereign states. On the far right, global anarchism, in which sovereign states are not
subsumed by any meta-state structure. Kuhn provides a fundamental change in our vision of the
discipline of International Relations, where the ontological side between access or denial World
have a pivotal role. Kaldor affirms that the practice of International Relations and new War
Economy are affected by factors emerged from globalization and transnational networks. All this
entail to recast the study of International Relations as an emancipator system and the recognition of
the centrality of Human Beings in the practice of International Relations for cooperation. If we are
able to carry out this very ambitious End State, we can success. Hence, this research intends to
evaluate the degree of the EU and the NATO commitments and impact on the Central Asia
countries (Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, Kyrgyzstan and Afghanistan), taking
into account that changes in power structures could trigger violent confrontation between factions
within States’ leadership.
6