Identity Crisis: The 2016 Presidential Campaign and the Battle for the Meaning of America

353 Pages·2018·4.09 MB·English

by  John Sides

IDENTITY CRISIS

John Sides, Michael Tesler,
and Lynn Vavreck
IDENTITY CRISIS
The 2016 Presidential Campaign and the
Battle for the Meaning of Amer i ca
PRINCE TON UNIVERSITY PRESS
Prince ton and Oxford
Copyright © 2018 by Prince ton University Press
Requests for permission to reproduce material from this work should be sent to
permissions@press . princeton . edu
Published by Prince ton University Press
41 William Street, Prince ton, New Jersey 08540
6 Oxford Street, Woodstock, Oxfordshire OX20 1TR
press . princeton . edu
All Rights Reserved
LCCN 2018947736
ISBN 978-0-691-17419-8
British Library Cataloging- in- Publication Data is available
Jacket design by Faceout Studio, Lindy Martin
This book has been composed in Minion Pro and Ideal Sans
Printed on acid- free paper. ∞
Printed in the United States of Amer i ca
10 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1
To Henry Brady, Jack Citrin, Dick Fenno, and David Sears:
Without them, there is no us.

CONTENTS
List of Figures and T ables ix
1 Fayetteville 1
2 “Whaddaya Got?” 12
3 Indecision 33
4 “The Daily Donald Show” 47
5 Hiding in Plain Sight 69
6 Cracks in the Ceiling 97
7 The Trump Tax 130
8 What Happened? 154
9 The Soul of a Nation 201
Appendixes 221
Notes 247
Acknowl edgments 317
Index 321
vii

FIGURES AND T ABLES
Figure 2.1. Changes in real average family incomes compared to 2007 levels,
by income quintile 15
Figure 2.2. The Index of Consumer Sentiment, 1960–2016 15
Figure 2.3. The Index of Consumer Sentiment among income groups,
1980–2016 17
Figure 2.4. Presidential approval, trust in government, and evaluations
of the country’s direction, 2009–16 18
Figure 2.5. The relationship between consumer sentiment and presidential
approval 19
Figure 2.6. Demo cratic advantage in partisanship, by race and
education 26
Figure 2.7. Racial attitudes, education, and whites’ party identification 28
Figure 2.8. Muslims, immigration, and whites’ identification with the
Demo cratic Party 29
Figure 2.9. Racial attitudes and whites’ evaluations of the national
economy, 2007 versus 2012 30
Figure 3.1. Delegates won by the Republican presidential candidates 34
Figure 3.2. Endorsements of Republican presidential candidates by
Republican governors, senators, and U.S. House members 43
Figure 3.3. The ideological location of presidential candidate
endorsers in Congress 45
Figure 4.1. Donald Trump’s share of news coverage during the Republican
primary 51
ix