Handbook of Scientific Methods of Inquiry for Intelligence Analysis (Scarecrow Professional Intelligence Education Series)

249 Pages·2010·1.73 MB·English

by  Hank Prunckun

SCARECROW PROFESSIONAL
INTELLIGENCE EDUCATION SERIES
Series Editor: Jan Goldman
In this post–September 11, 2001 era, there has been rapid growth in the
number of professional intelligence training and educational programs
across the United States and abroad. Colleges and universities, as well as
high schools, are developing programs and courses in homeland security,
intelligence analysis, and law enforcement, in support of national security.
The Scarecrow Professional Intelligence Education Series (SPIES) was
first designed for individuals studying for careers in intelligence and to
help improve the skills of those already in the profession; however, it
was also developed to educate the public in how intelligence work is con-
ducted and should be conducted in this important and vital profession.
1. Communicating with Intelligence: Writing and Briefing in the Intelligence
and National Security Communities, by James S. Major. 2008.
2. A Spy’s Résumé: Confessions of a Maverick Intelligence Professional and
Misadventure Capitalist, by Marc Anthony Viola. 2008.
3. An Introduction to Intelligence Research and Analysis, by Jerome Clauser,
revised and edited by Jan Goldman. 2008.
4. Writing Classified and Unclassified Papers for National Security: A Scare-
crow Professional Intelligence Educational Series Manual, by James S.
Major. 2009.
5. Strategic Intelligence: A Handbook for Practitioners, Managers, and Users,
revised edition by Don McDowell. 2009.
6. Partly Cloudy: Ethics in War, Espionage, Covert Action, and Interrogation,
by David L. Perry. 2009.
7. Tokyo Rose / An American Patriot: A Dual Biography, by Frederick P.
Close. 2010.
8. Ethics of Spying: A Reader for the Intelligence Professional, edited by Jan
Goldman. 2006.
9. Ethics of Spying: A Reader for the Intelligence Professional, Volume 2,
edited by Jan Goldman. 2010.
10. A Woman’s War: The Professional and Personal Journey of the Navy’s First
African American Female Intelligence Officer, by Gail Harris, 2010.
11. Handbook of Scientific Methods of Inquiry for Intelligence Analysis, by
Hank Prunckun, 2010.

Handbook of Scientific
Methods of Inquiry
for Intelligence Analysis
Hank Prunckun
Jan Goldman
Series Editor
Scarecrow Professional Intelligence
Education Series, No. 11
THE SCARECROW PRESS, INC.
Lanham (cid:129) Toronto (cid:129) Plymouth, UK
2010
Published by Scarecrow Press, Inc.
A wholly owned subsidiary of The Rowman & Littlefield Publishing Group, Inc.
4501 Forbes Boulevard, Suite 200, Lanham, Maryland 20706
http://www.scarecrowpress.com
Estover Road, Plymouth PL6 7PY, United Kingdom
Copyright © 2010 by Hank Prunckun
All rights reserved. No part of this book may be reproduced in any form or by
any electronic or mechanical means, including information storage and retrieval
systems, without written permission from the publisher, except by a reviewer
who may quote passages in a review.
British Library Cataloguing in Publication Information Available
Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data
Prunckun, Hank.
Handbook of scientific methods of inquiry for intelligence analysis / Hank
Prunckun.
p. cm. — (Scarecrow professional intelligence education series ; no. 11)
Includes bibliographical references.
ISBN 978-0-8108-7191-5 (hardcover : alk. paper) — ISBN 978-0-8108-6753-6
(pbk. : alk. paper) — ISBN 978-0-8108-7381-0 (eBook)
1. Intelligence service—Methodology—Handbooks, manuals, etc. 2. Science—
Methodology—Handbooks, manuals, etc. 3. Social sciences—Methodology—
Handbooks, manuals, etc. 4. Behavioral assessment—Methodology—
Handbooks, manuals, etc. I. Title.
JF1525.I6P78 2010
327.12072—dc22 2009038488
(cid:2)
™
The paper used in this publication meets the minimum requirements of
American National Standard for Information Sciences—Permanence of Paper for
Printed Library Materials, ANSI/NISO Z39.48-1992.
Printed in the United States of America
To Ann, for all you have done.

Contents
Editor’s Foreword ix
Preface xi
1 The Fundamentals of Intelligence 1
2 The Intelligence Research Process 20
3 Scientific Methods in Intelligence Research 43
4 Approaches to Intelligence Research 54
5 Unobtrusive Data Collection 61
6 Covert Sources of Information 72
7 Data Collation Techniques 97
8 Basic Statistical Analyses 107
9 Presenting Statistical Results 128
10 Advanced Analytic Techniques 135
11 Analytic Techniques for Counterterrorism 162
12 Presenting Spatial Data 182
vii
viii Contents
13 The Intelligence Research Report 187
14 Ethical Considerations in Intelligence Research 207
15 Document and Personnel Security 218
Appendix 231
About the Author 233
Editor’s Foreword
The goal of this series is first and foremost to develop and contribute to
the educational literature of the intelligence profession. While other
intelligence book series discuss “what to do with intelligence” by focus-
ing on issues and policy, the goal of this series will always be ”how to do
intelligence.” Previous books in the series have dealt with methodologies
of intelligence analysis. Although there is no agreed-upon method of how
to process raw intelligence into a finished product, this book contributes
to a long line of theories and viewpoints on the subject. Hank Prunckun
is the second Australian intelligence expert to contribute to this series. The
first book, and extremely well-received by the intelligence community, was
written by Don McDowell. Both books highlight the worldwide interest of
improving intelligence analysts beyond any country’s borders. It is hoped
that as this series develops, additional analytical books will be added, al-
lowing intelligence professionals to decide for themselves which method
works best.
Jan Goldman
Series Editor
ix