Guidelines for consequence analysis of chemical releases, Volume 1

348 Pages·1995·12.65 MB·English

GUIDELINES F OR
C o n s e q u e n ce A n a l y s is
of C h e m i c al R e l e a s es
AMERICAN INSTITUTE OF
CHEMICAL ENGINEERS
CEfSfTER FOR
CHEMICAL PROCESS SAFETY
CENTER FOR CHEMICAL PROCESS SAFETY
of the
AMERICAN INSTITUTE OF CHEMICAL ENGINEERS
3 Park Avenue, New York, New York 10016-5991
Copyright © 1999
American Institute of Chemical Engineers
3 Park Avenue
New York, New York 10016-5991
All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval
system, or transmitted in any form or by any means, electronic, mechanical, photocopy-
ing, recording, or otherwise without the prior permission of the copyright owner.
Library of Congress Cataloging-in Publication Data
Guidelines for consequence analysis of chemical releases.
p. cm.
Includes bibliography and index.
ISBN 0-8169-0786-2
1. Chemical plants—Accidents-Evaluation 2. Bisk assessment.
TP155.G872 1999 99-10049
660/.280^-dc21 CIP
This book is available at a special discount when ordered in
bulk quantities. For information, contact the Center for
Chemical Process Safety at the address shown above.
It is sincerely hoped that the information presented in this volume will lead to an even more impressive
safety record for the entire industry; however, the American Institute of Chemical Engineers, its consultants,
CCPS Subcommittee members, their employers, and their employers' officers and directors disclaim making
or giving any warranties or representations, express or implied, including with respect to fitness, intended
purpose, use or merchantability and/or correctness or accuracy of the content of the information presented in
this document and accompanying software. As between (1) American Institute of Chemical Engineers, its
consultants, CCPS Subcommittee members, their employers, their employers' officers and directors and (2)
the user of this document and accompanying software, the user accepts any legal liability or responsibility
whatsoever for the consequences of its use or misuse.
P r e f a ce
The original CCPS book Guidelines for Quantitative Risk Analysis (1989)
(CPQRA Guidelines) contained a long chapter on consequence analysis. When
CCPS decided to update the CPQRA Guidelines in 1995, preparing a second edi-
tion for publication, there were major revisions and additions to the material on
consequence analysis. These revisions included more detail on many of the conse-
quence models, additional and updated models which reflect the current state of
the art, a more complete presentation of the fundamentals of many of the models,
and more worked examples. Spreadsheet solutions for all of the worked examples
have also been provided.
Because the revised Chapter 2, Consequence Analysis, of the CPQRA Guide-
lines, 2nd Edition represents an important topic in process safety, CCPS decided
to publish the material as a separate book. This will make the material on conse-
quence analysis more readily and economically available to a broader audience,
which uses incident consequence analysis evaluation tools, but does not use quan-
titative risk analyses. This book includes all of the material in Chapter 2, Conse-
quence Analysis, of the CPQRA Guidelines, 2nd Edition^ re-formatted as a stand
alone book. All worked examples and spreadsheet problem solutions are
included. All of this material will also be published in the CPQRA Guidelines, 2nd
Edition.
Modeling and understanding the consequences of chemical process incidents
(unplanned releases of material and/or energy) are important components of a
process safety management program. This activity can be generally classified as
incident consequence analysis, and it includes models for:
• quantity and rate of material release—for example, flow through a hole in a
pipe, evaporation from a pool
• atmospheric dispersion of released materials
• thermal radiation models for fires of various types—for example, pool
fires, jet fires, flash fires
• overpressure and other models for different kinds of explosions—for exam-
pie, physical explosions, vapor cloud explosions
• impact models which estimate the effect of toxic materials, fires, and explo-
sions on people, the environment, and property
Consequence analysis is an important part of many corporate process risk
management programs. It is also required for specified materials by many process
safety regulations promulgated by national and local regulatory bodies. For
example, the United States Environmental Protection Agency requires a conse-
quence analysis of specified material incident release scenarios for materials cov-
ered by the Bisk Management Plan (RMP) regulations required by the Clean Air
Act of 1990.
Consequence analysis is also an important tool for Chemical Process Quanti-
tative Risk Analysis (CPQRA). CPQRA requires identification of potential inci-
dents (what can go wrong?), estimation of consequences of those incidents (what
is the impact if it goes wrong?), estimation of the frequency of the incidents (how
likely is it to happen?), and combination of this information into a quantitative
measure of risk.
If you are involved in process safety management activities which require
modeling of the estimated consequences of chemical process incidents, you will
find an introduction to the appropriate models in this book. You will also find
references to more detailed information and models published in other books by
CCPS and others. This book focuses on the immediate impact of unplanned
releases of material and energy—fires, explosions, toxic material releases. It does
not cover long term consequences of a single exposure from an incident, or the
consequences of extended, lower level exposure to continuing discharges of
material to the environment. If your process safety management program
requires (or evolves to require) quantitative risk analysis of the risks associated
with these types of incidents, the additional material you will need to understand
quantitative risk analysis can be found in the Guidelines for Chemical Process Quan-
titative Risk Analysis, 2nd Edition.
A c k n o w l e d g m e n ts
The Guidelines for Consequence Analysis of Chemical Releases is a stand alone publi-
cation of material contained in Chapter 2, Consequence Analysis, of the CCPS
Guidelines for Chemical Process Quantitative Risk Analysis, 2nd Edition. This mate-
rial has been updated from the 1989 edition of the Guidelines for Chemical Process
Quantitative Risk Analysis (CPQRA Guidelines) under the guidance of the Center
for Chemical Process Safety (CCPS) Risk Assessment Subcommittee (RASC).
Most of the material from the CPQRA Guidelines^ which was written by the 1989
BASC members, Technica, Inc. (now Det Norske Veritas [DNV]), and several
other contributors, remains in this edition. The contributions of the original edi-
tion authors are listed in the "1989 CPQRA Guidelines Acknowledgments."
The material in this book was updated and revised from the original Chapter
2 of the 1989 edition of the CPQRA Guidelines by Dr. Daniel A. Crowl of Michi-
gan Technological University. Dr. Crowl also provided a significant amount of
new and updated material, a number of new worked example problems, and
spreadsheet solutions for all of the worked examples.
The RASC was chaired by Dennis C. Hendershot (Rohm and Haas Com-
pany), and the RASC members include Brian R. Dunbobbin and Walter Silowka
(Air Products and Chemicals, Inc.), Arthur G. Mundt (Dow Chemical), William
Tilton (DuPont), Scott Ostrowski (Exxon Chemicals), Donald L. Winter
(Mobil), Raymond A. Freeman (Monsanto), Arthur Woltman (Shell), Thomas
Janicik (Solvay Polymers), Richard M. Gustafson (Texaco), William K. Lutz
(Union Carbide), Felix Freiheiter and Thomas Gibson(Center for Chemical Pro-
cess Safety).
The RASC also thanks the CCPS management and staff for their support of
this project, including Mr. Bob Perry, Dr. Jack Weaver, and Mr. Les Wittenberg.
The BASC also thanks the following for their peer review:
Chuck Fryman FMC Corporation
William Geckler PLG (EQE International)
Doan Hanson United States Department of Energy,
Brookhaven National Laboratory
Robert Linney Air Products and Chemicals, Inc.
Ken Murphy United States Department of Energy
Jerry Schroy Solutia, Inc.
Walt Silowka Air Products and Chemicals, Inc.
The RASC dedicates this book to two of our friends and colleagues, Mr.
Donald L. Winter of Mobil Oil Corporation, and Mr. Felix Freiheiter of the
Center for Chemical Process Staff. Both were significant contributors to this
book, to the CPQRA Guidelines, 2nd Edition, and to other activities of the CCPS
Risk Assessment Subcommittee for many years. Mr. Winter unfortunately
passed away due to a sudden illness during the later stages of the writing of the
book. Mr. Freiheiter also passed away as the book was being prepared for publi-
cation. Their influence can be found throughout the book.
1 9 89 C P Q RA G u i d e l i n es
A c k n o w l e d g m e n ts
This volume was written jointly by the CCPS Bisk Assessment Subcommittee
and Technica, Inc. The CCPS Subcommittee was chaired by R. W. Ormsby (Air
Products and Chemicals), and included (in alphabetical order); R. E. DeHart, II
(Union Carbide), H. H. Feng (ICI Americas, formerly of Stauffer Chemical),
R. A. Freeman (Monsanto), S. B. Gibson (du Pont), D. C. Hendershot (Rohm
and Haas), C. A. Master (Fluor Daniel), R. F. Schwab (Allied-Signal), and J. C.
Sweeney (ARCO Chemical). T. W. Carmody, F. Freiheiter, R. G. Hill, and
L. H. Wittenberg of CCPS provided staff support. The Technica team included
B. Morgan, A. Shafaghi, L. G. Bacon, M. A. Seaman, L. J. Bellamy, S. R. Harris,
P. Baybutt, D. M. Boult, and N. C. Harris. F. P Lees (University of Lough-
borough) reviewed and early draft of the document and his comments are grate-
fully acknowledged. The substantial contributions of the employer organizations
(both in time and resources) of the Subcommittee and of Technica are gratefully
acknowledged.
An acknowledgment is also made to JBF Associates, Inc. (J. S. Arendt, D. F.
Montague, H. M. Paula, L. E. Palko) for their preparation of the subsection on
common cause failure analysis (Section 3.3.1) and inclusion of additional mate-
rial in the section on fault tree analysis (Section 3.2.1), and the Meridian Corpo-
ration (C. O. Schultz and W. S. Perry) for the preparation of the section on toxic
gas effects (Section 2.3.1).
Two specific individuals should also be acknowledged for significant contri-
butions:C. W. Thurston of Union Carbide for assistance in the preparation of the
subsection on programmable electronic systems (Section 6.3) and G. K. Lee of
Air Products and Chemicals who assisted in the preparation of the subsections
addressing discharge rates, flash and evaporation, and dispersion (Sections
2.1.1., 2.1.2, and 2.1.3).
Finally, the CCPS Risk Assessment Subcommittee wishes to express its sin-
cere gratitude to Dr. Elisabeth M. Drake for reviewing the final manuscript and
her many helpful comments and suggestions.
A c r o n y ms
AAR American Association of Railroads
ACGIH American Conference of Governmental Industrial Hygienists
ACMH Advisory Commission on Major Hazards
AEC Atomic Energy Commission
AGA American Gas Association
American Institute of Chemical Engineers—Center for
AICHE/CCPS Chemical Process Safety
American Institute of Chemical Engineers—Design Institute
AICHE-DIERS for Emergency Relief Systems
American Institute of Chemical Engineers—Design
AICHE—DIPPR Institute for Physical Property Data
American Industrial Hygiene Association
AIHA Auto-Ignition Temperature
ATT American Petroleum Institute
API Accelerating Rate Calorimeter
ARC American Society of Mechanical Engineers
ASME Acute Toxic Concentration
ATC Boiling Liquid Expanding Vapor Explosion
BLEVE Community Awareness and Emergency Responses
CAER Center for Chemical Process Safety
CCPS Chemical Engineering Progress
CEP Computational Fluid Dynamics
CFD Chemical Manufacturers Association
CMA Chemical Process Industry
CPI Computer Processing Unit
CPU Chemical Process Quantitative Risk Analysis
CPQRA Chemical Rubber Company
CRC
CSTR Continuous Stirred Tank Reactor
DOE Department of Energy
DOT Department of Transportation
DSC Differential Scanning Calorimeter
EEC European Economic Community
EEGL Emergency Exposure Guidance Level
EFCE European Federation of Chemical Engineers
EPA Environmental Protection Agency
EPRI Electric Power Research Institute
ERPG Emergency Response Planning Guidelines
ERV Emergency Response Value
ESD Emergency Shutdown Device
ESV Emergency Shutdown Valve
FAR Fatal Accident Rate
FDT Fractional Dead Time
FEMA Federal Emergency Management Agency
FMEA Failure Modes and Effects Analysis
FTA Fault Tree Analysis
FR Failure Rate
HAZOP Hazard and Operability
HEP Hazard Evaluation Procedures
HFA Human Failure Analysis
HMSO Her Majesty's Stationery Office
HRA Human Reliability Analysis
HSE Health and Safety Executive
IChemE Institution of Chemical Engineers (Great Britain)
ICI Imperial Chemical Industries
IDLH Immediately Dangerous to Life and Health
IEEE Institute of Electrical and Electronic Engineers
IHI Individual Hazard Index
INPO Institute of Nuclear Power Operations
ISBN International Standard Book Number
LC Lethal Concentration
LCL Lower Confidence Limit
LD Lethal Dose
LFL Lower Flammable Limit
LNG Liquified Natural Gas
LOC Level of Concern
LPG Liquefied Petroleum Gas
MAWP Maximum Allowable Working Pressure