Great Games, Local Rules: The New Great Power Contest in Central Asia

267 Pages·2012·1.95 MB·English

by  Alexander Cooley

Great Games, Local Rules
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Great Games, Local Rules
The New Great Power Contest in Central Asia
ALEXANDER COOLEY

1
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Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data
Cooley, Alexander, 1972–
Great games, local rules : the new great power contest in Central Asia / Alexander Cooley.
p. cm.
Includes bibliographical references and index.
ISBN 978-0-19-992982-5
1. Asia, Central—Foreign relations—1991– 2. Geopolitics—Asia, Central.
3. Asia, Central—Strategic aspects. 4. Asia, Central—Foreign relations—United States.
5. United States—Foreign relations—Asia, Central. 6. Asia, Central—Foreign relations—Russia (Federation)
7. Russia (Federation)—Foreign relations—Asia, Central. 8. Asia, Central—Foreign relations—China.
9. China—Foreign relations—Asia, Central. I. Title.
JZ1711.5.C66 2012
327.58—dc23 2011044188
1 3 5 7 9 8 6 4 2
Printed in the United States of America
on acid-free paper
For Greta and Vania
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TABLE OF CONTENTS

Figures and Tables i x
Acknowledgments xi
Introduction xiii
1. Th e New Great Power Contest in Central Asia
3
2. Local Rules: How Central Asian Regimes Survive
16
3. Washington’s Central Asian Detour to Afghanistan
30
4. Moscow’s Quest for a Privileged Role
51
5. Th e SCO and Beijing’s Great Leap Westward
74
6. Anti-Terrorism, Democratization, and Human Rights
97
7. Geopolitical Competition and Political Stability: Kyrgyzstan’s Base
Bidding War
116
8. Th e Price of Access: Contracts and Corruption
134
9. Chasing the Shadow of a Region
149
10. Th e New Regional Contests of a Multipolar World
162
Appendix 1. Laws Passed aft er Color Revolutions Th at Introduced
New Restrictions on NGOs and the Media 1 79
Appendix 2. OSCE, SCO, and CIS Evaluations of Major
Central Asian Elections, 2005–2008 185
Notes 195
Bibliography 2 31
Index 243
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FIGURES AND TABLES
Figures

Figure 3.1. Map of Major U.S./NATO and Russian/CSTO Military Facilities
in Central Asia 33
Figure 3.2. Th e Northern Distribution Network 44
Figure 4.1. Central Asian Trade with Russia, Annual, 2001–2010 60
Figure 4.2. Gazprom Production and Central Asian Purchases,
2005–2009 65
Figure 4.3. Russian Investment in Central Asia, Annual, 2002–2009 66
Figure 5.1. Central Asian Trade with Russia and China, Annual,
2001–2010 86
Figure 5.2. Kyrgyz Trade with China and Russia, 2001–2010 87
Figure 5.3. Map of Major New Chinese Pipelines in Central Asia 93
Figure 6.1. Democracy Trends in Central Asia, 2001–2010 98
Figure 8.1. Control of Corruption, Central Asia, 2000–2009 135
Figure 8.2. Control of Corruption, Middle East, 2000–2009 135
Figure 8.3. Th e Manas Fuel Chain, Late 2010 147
Figure 9.1. Number of Documents Required for Import/Export,
2006 & 2011 154
Figure 9.2. Time Required for Import/Export, 2006 & 2011 154
Figure 9.3. Comparative Time Required for Import/Export,
2006 & 2011 155

Tables

Table 3.1. U.S. Assistance to Central Asia, FY2007 42
Table 8.1. Manas Primary Fuel Contracts 145

ix