Geocomplexity and the Physics of Earthquakes

286 Pages·2000·7.414 MB·English

GeoComplexity and the Physicso f
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Geophysical Monograph 120
GeoComplexity and the
Physicso f Earthqua <es
John B. Rundle
Donald L. Turcotte
William Klein
Editors
American GeophysicalU nion
Washington,
Published under the aegis of the AGU Books Board
RobertaM . Johnson,C hair; JohnE . Costa,A ndrew Dessler,J effreyM . Forbes,
W. Rockwell Geyer, RebeccaL ange,D ouglasS . Luther,D arrell Strobel,
and R. EugeneT urner,m embers.
Library of CongressC ataloging-in-Publication Data
GeoComplexitya ndt he physicso f earthquake/s J ohnB . Rundle,D onaldL .
Turcotte, William Klein, editors.
p. cm -- (Geophysicaml onographs eries;n o. 120)
Includesb ibliographicarl eferences.
ISBN 0-87590-978-7
1. Earthquakes--Computseirm ulationI.. Rundle,J ohn.I I Turcotte,D onald
Lawson. III. Klein, William, 1943- IV. Series.
QE539.2.D36 G46 2000
551.22--dc21 00-030618
ISBN 0-87590-978-7
ISSN 0065-8448
Back Cover: An example of a complex pattern of earthquakesin southern
California.T he figure showst he relativei ntensityo f seismica ctivityd uringt he
years 1932-Decembe3r 1, 1991, endingj ust prior to the M- 7.4, June2 8, 1992
Landers,C alforniae arthquake.R elativei ntensityi s plottedo n a scalef rom 0+
(lightestr ed) to 1 (darkestr ed).A nalysisu singc onventionatel chniquefsa iledt o
indicatet hat any speciala ttentions houldb e given to the Mojave Desertr egion
wheret he earthquakeo ccurred.
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Printed in the United States of
CONTENTS
Preface
J. B. Rundle,D . L. Turcottea, nd William Klein ........................................ ix
Introduction
JohnB . Rundle,D onald L. Turcottea, nd William Klein .................................. 1
Models
Deterministic Chaos in two State-variable Friction Sliders and the Effect of Elastic Interactions
Thorsten (cid:127)4,. Becker ............................................................ 5
Spring-bloMcko delso f SeismicitRy:e viewan dA nalysoisf a StructuralHlye terogeneoMuosd el
Coupledto a ViscouAs sthenosphere
]on D. Pelletier ............................................................... 27
StatisticAaln alysiosf a Modelf or EarthquakFea ultWs ithL ong-rangSetr esTsr ansfer
W. Klein,M . AnghelC, . D. FergusoJn., B . Rundlea, ndJ . S. S(cid:127) Martins.. .................... 43
TravelinWg avea ndR oughF aultE arthquakMeo delsI:l luminatinthge RelationshBipe tween
SlipD eficita ndE ventF requencSyt atistics
SusannaJ . Gross ............................................................. 73
A StatisticaPl hysicAs pproachto Earthquakes
D. L. TurcotteW, . I. Newman,a ndA . Gabrielov ...................................... 83
EarthquakeFsr:i ctiono r a PlasticIn stability?
D.C. Roberts and D. L. Turcotte .................................................. 97
LatticeS olidS imulatioonf the Physicosf FaultZ onesa ndE arthquakeTsh:e M odel,
Resultsa, nd Directions
P.M ora, D. Place,S . Abe, andS .J aum(cid:127) ........................................... 105
Patterns
Dynamicosf SeismiciPtya tternins Systemosf E arthquaFkaeu lts
JohnB . RundleW, . Klein,K ristyT iampoa ndS usannGa ross ............................ 127
Constraintsfr om Fielda nd LaboratoryD ata
Microscopaicn dM acroscopPich ysicosf Earthquakes
Hiroo Kanamori and ThomasH . Heaton ........................................... 147
DepthD ependenRtu pturPe ropertieins C ircum-PaciSfiucb ductioZno nes
SusanL . Bileka ndT horneL ay .................................................. 1
CONTENTS
Effectos f LoadingR atea ndN ormaSl tresosn StressD ropa ndS tick-SliRp ecurrencIne terval
StephenL . Karnera nd ChrisM arone ............................................. 187
Changeisn EarthquakSei ze-FrequenDcyis tributionUsn derlyinAgc celeratinSge ismic
Moment/EnergyR elease
Steven C. Jaum(cid:127) ............................................................ 199
Observationo f SystematiVca riationsin Non-locaSl eismicitPy atternfsr om SouthernC alifornia
K. F. TiampoJ, . B. Rundle,S . McGinnis,S .J . Grossa, nd VII.K lein ........................ 211
ComputationaMl ethods
Introducinag N ewP aradigmfo r ComputationEaal rthS cienceA: W eb-Object-BasAepdp roach
to EarthquakeS imulations
GeoffreyC . Fox,K enH urstA, ndreaD onnellana, ndJ ayP arker .......................... 219
ModelingC omplexC rustalP rocesses
William J. Bosl ............................................................. 245
CrustalF luidsa nd Earthquakes
William J. Bosl and Amos Nur ..................................................
PREFACE
Earthquakesi n urban centersa re capableo f causing devices,s uperconductorasn, d even the expansiono f the
enormousd amage. The January 16, 1995 Kobe, Japan early universe.
earthquakew as only a magnitude6 .9 event and yet pro- In this monographw, e have collecteda numbero f arti-
duced an estimated$ 200 billion loss. Despite an active clest hat describer ecenta dvancesin the understandinogf
earthquakep redictionp rogram in Japan,t his event was a earthquakep hysics,t ogetherw ith suggestionsfo r new
completes urprise.S imilar scenariosa re possiblei n Los researchd irectionsa nd new ideast hat might be exploited
Angeles, San Francisco,S eattle,a nd other urban centers by subsequenint vestigationsT.h e greatm ajority of these
around the Pacific plate boundary.T he developmento f articlesu se the conceptt hat earthquakefa ult systemsa re
forecasto r predictionm ethodologiesfo r theseg reat dam- characterizebdy stronglyc orrelatedd ynamicsg, iving rise
aginge arthquakehsa sb eenc omplicatedb y the fact thatt he to the observeds calingl aws, correlationsa, nd space-time
largeste ventsr epeat at irregulari ntervalso f hundredst o patterns.W e hope that the papersi n this volume, which
thousandso f years, resultingi n a limited historicalr ecord grew out of a serieso f AGU specials essionos n the Physics
thath asf rustratedp henomenologicsatl udiesT. he papersin of Earthquakes,w ill help to communicates ome of the
this book describea n emerginga lternativea pproachw, hich excitementw e feel about the emergencea nd promise of
is basedo n a new understandinogf earthquakep hysicsa ris- this new field of researchW. e believet hat the paperst hat
ing from the constructiona nd analysiso f numericals imu- we havec ollectedh erew ill be accessiblteo a broadr ange
lations. With these numerical simulations, earthquake of earths cientistsW. e furtherh opet hat amongt he readers
physicsn ow can be investigatedin numericall aboratories. of this book will be scientistsw ho, althoughn ot familiar
Simulationd ataf rom numericale xperimentsc anb e usedt o with GeoComplexityw, ill nonethelessb e stimulatedt o find
developt heoreticalu nderstandingth at can be subsequently out more. We encouragere aderso f this monographp, artic-
appliedt o observedd ata.T hesem ethodsh aveb eene nabled ularly studentsa ndy oungs cientistst,o exploret hesei deas
by the informationt echnologyr evolution,i n which funda- ont heir own,a ndt o contributeto thisr apidlyg rowingb ody
mental advancesi n computinga nd communicationsa re of literature.
placingv astc omputationarle sourcesa t our disposal. Most of our work and that of our colleaguesh asb een
Many of our colleaguesh ave expressedto us the feel- funded by a variety of federal agencies,i ncluding the
ing that an excitingn ew kind of scienceis beingb orn,a sci- National Science Foundation,t he U.S. Department of
ence of GeoComplexityth at focuseso n the temporala nd Energy, the National Aeronautics and Space
spatial evolution of strongly correlated earth systems. Administration,t he National Oceanic and Atmospheric
Within this new scienceo f GeoComplexity,t he study of Administration, and the Office of Naval Research. Without
earthquakesw ill play a central role, encompassingas it the generouss upportp rovidedb y thesea genciest,h e work
does ideas of self-organizationn, ucleation,c ritical phe- describedin thism onographw ouldn ot haveb eenp ossible.
nomena,s elf-organizedc riticality,a nd emergents tructures
and phenomenaM. any of the resultsa nd methodst hat are J. B. Rundle
discussedin this book are beginningt o havea major impact ColoradoC enterf or Chaosa nd Complexity,a nd CIRES
on othera reaso f physicsw ell beyonde arths cienceI.n par-
ticular, ideasa bout scalingr egimesa nd friction are being D. L. Turcotte
useda sp aradigmsin explainingth eb ehavioro f otherk inds Cornell University
of thresholds ystemst hat display suddent ransitionsa nd
"avalanchep" henomenas, ucha s neuraln etworksi n biolo- W. Klein
gy, driven foams, charge density wave semiconductor Boston
Introduction
John B. Rundle
Colorado Centerf or Chaos& Complexity,& CIRES
Donald L. Turcotte
Cornell University
William Klein
Boston University
Earthquakep hysicsi s a very broad topic, and only a scalese xtendingo vert imei ntervalso f 10'3 s econdtso days,
subseot f subjectsis coveredi n thism onographT. he major and over length scales of centimeterst o meters. We
focus is the contributions that studies in the new field of therefore have a critical need to understand how these
GeoComplexity,w hich dealsw ith the physicso f chaotic physicapl rocessetsh ato perateo n the laboratorys calesc an
andc omplexe arths ystemsh, avem adet o theu nderstanding be connectedt o the processesth at we observeo n much
of the physicso f earthquakesT. he relevant aspectso f larger and longer scalesi n field situations.S ome of the
GeoComplexity are fractals and chaos, together with spatials calesf or physicalf ault geometriesin clude:
nucleation and critical phenomena, self-organized
criticality, and more generally, self-organizingc omplex The microscopiscc ale( - 10' 6 m to 10(cid:127) m) associated
systems.T he dynamicso f the stronglyc orrelateds ystems withs tatiacn dd ynamficri ction(t hep rimarnyo nlinearities
studied in GeoComplexitya re characterizedb y a large associatedw ith the earthquakep rocess).
multiplicityo f spatiala ndt emporals cales,a nd earthquakes Thef ault-zones cale( - 10' l m to 1(cid:127) m) that features
are no exceptionS. trongc orrelationlse ad directlyt o space- complex structuresc ontaining multiple fractures and
time clustering of earthquakes,s elf-organization and crushed rock.
scaling. Examples of the latter include the Gutenberg- Thefault-systemsc ale( 102 m to 104 m ), in whichf aults
Richter magnitude-frequencrye lation,a nd the Omori law ares eent o be neithers traightn or simplyc onnectedb, ut in
for aftershock(sa nd foreshocks)M. ore generally,n onlinear which bends,o ffsettingj ogs and sub-parallels trandsa re
fault instabilityp rocesseqsu alitativelys imilart o frictiona re common and known to have important mechanical
knownt o be physicallys ignificanftr om the moleculars cale, consequencedsu ringf ault slip.
on time intervalso f lesst han 104 secondsa nd lengthso f Ther egionalfault-netwosrkc ale( 104 m to 10s m ), where
Angstrom(As ), to platem otions caleso,n t imei ntervalosf seismicityo n an individual fault cannotb e understoodin
106y earsa nd lengthsin excesso f 1000k m. The physical isolationfr om the seismicityo n the entirer egionaln etwork
processedsi rectlya ssociatewd ith faultinga nd seismology, of surrounding faults, and where concepts such as
includingn ucleationa nd quasi-staticc rustald eformation, correlation length and critical state borrowed from
occur over time intervals of fractions of seconds to statistical physics have led to new approachest o
thousandso f years,a nd lengthso f meterst o hundredso f understandingre gionals eismicity.
kilometers. The tectonicp late-boundarys cale( 10s m to 107 m), at
By contrastl,a boratorye xperimentosn frictionals liding which PlanetaryS cale boundariesb etweenp lates can be
of rock samplesa re usually carried out over bench-top approximateda st hin shearz onesa ndt he motioni s uniform
at long time scales.
In GeoComplexityt,h e dynamicals ystemsu nders tudy,
GeoComplexitayn dt heP hysicso f Earthquakes
such as earthquakesa nd earthquake faults, cannot be
GeophysicaMl onograph1 20
understoodde terministicallIyn. steadth e scientific
Copyrigh2t 000 by theA mericanG eophysicaUln ion
2 INTRODUCTION
are focussedo n usingm ethodso f nonlineara nd statistical magnituder elationf or earthquakesF. irst observedin the
mechanicsto understandth e stochasticp rocessesin volved, United Statesi n 1942 (a similar observationarle lationh ad
and uponc haracterizinga ndu nderstandintgh e space-time been observede arlier in Japanb y Ishimotoa nd Iida), the
pattemso f activityt hato ccur.T he usuals cientificm ethods frequency-magniturdeela tionc ana ctuallyb e interpretedas
are still applied,i n which hypothesesa re formulatedb ased a power-laws calingr elationf or cumulativefr equencyo f
on data,p redictionsa rem adea ndt estedw ith new data,a nd occurrencoef earthquakehsa vinga seismicm omentl arger
the resultsf ed back into formulatingn ew hypothesesIn. the than some value Mo. Similar scaling laws are the Omori
new methods associatedw ith GeoComplexity,t here are relation for aftershocks,a nd the more recently discovered
now often intermediates tepst hat involvet he construction Bufe-Varnes relation for pre-seismica ctivation.D uring
and analysis of numerical simulations, together with much of the 20t h century, the focus in earthquake
considerationo f universalb ehaviora nd processesth at arise investigationwsa so f necessityo n observationalloyr iented
in otherd iversen onlineard ynamicasl ystemsA. s appliedt o researchH. owever,a st he 21s tc enturyd awns,a ndw ith it the
earthquakest,h eseq uestionsw ould relatet o: advento f the InformationA ge, the focusi s shiftingi n part
towards the implementationa nd analysiso f numerical
Cataloging and understanding the nature and simulationso f earthquakesa nd othert ectonicp henomena.
configurationso f space-timep atternso f earthquakesa,n d Since all of theses ystemsa re fundamentallyn onlineari n
examining whether these are scale-dependenot r scale- charactera, nd mosto f them are high-dimensionacl omplex
invarianti n spacea ndt ime. Certainc haracteristipca tterns systemsa, varietyo f new techniquems ustb e developedto
may indicatet hat a given eventi s a candidatefo reshocko f make senseo f the simulation data, then used to understand
a future, larger event. observed data. Some of these methodologies are
Developinga nd testingp otentiale arthquakefo recast applicationos f existinga nalyticatle chniquefsr om similar
algorithms,b asedp rimarily upon the use of space-time areaso f statisticapl hysicsa ndc haotics ystemsb, ut others
patternsi n the fault systemo f interest. are new.
Understandintgh ep hysicalc onditiontsh ata llow space- One of the mostr apidlyd evelopinga reasi s the analysis
time coarse-grainingo f sub-grid scale processes,a nd of slider-blockm odels of earthquakef aults. Since it was
whethert hesep rocessecsa nb e representeads correlatedo r first introducedb y Burridge and Knopoff in 1967, the
uncorrelated noise. nearest-neighbors lider-block model has grown in
Developing the theoreticalf ramework to integrate popularitya s a simplem odel for the behavioro f faults.
diversed ataa nde xtrapolatee xistingd atai n spacea ndt ime Dependingo n the parameteruss ed,e vent he simplesot f
so that model predictions can be tested with new these models have been shown to exhibit chaotic behavior.
observations(" Model-BasedI nference"). Fore xamplea, pairo f interactinsgl iderb locksd emonstrates
Developinga n understandinogf hardwares, oftwarea nd classicadl eterministicch aosw ith a periodd oublingr outet o
algorithmicis suesin computationasl upportf or multi-scale chaosS. lider-blockm odelsh avingm any interactingb locks,
sciencea nde ngineerings imulationws hicha re of pervasive both with and without inertia, have now been analyzed
importancei n many fields. extensively.S lider-blockm odelsa nd related approaches
form a major part of this volume. For example,B ecker
Paste arthquakere searchh aso ften focusedo n problems examines in detail the chaotic behavior of a slider-block
that display only a limited range of spatiala nd temporal model. Pelletier argues that realistic simulationso f
scales. The examples discussed previously include earthquakes using slider-block models require both
laboratory studieso f friction at the bench-tops cale and structurahl eterogeneitya nd a viscousi nteractionK. lein et
crustald eformationa t the plate boundarys cale.H owever, al. showt hatt he scalings tatisticasn dn onlinearb ehavioro f
the Gutenberg-Richtear nd Omori scalingl aws, the scale- largea rrayso f sliderb locksw ith heterogeneoufrsi ctionc an
invariantp hysicals tructureo f fault zones,a nd observations be understooda nd predictedi n the limit when eachb lock
that seismic events cluster at all spacea nd time scales interactsw ith many other blocks. These modelsh aving
investigated,a ll imply that multi-scale processesa re at long-rangei nteractionsa re genericallyc alled meanf ieM
work. In most other areas of science in which multi-scale models and lead to the appearanceo f the samek ind of
processedso minatel,a rge-scalec omputinga pproachehsa ve spinodatlh at is seeni n first-ordetrh ermalp haset ransitions.
had a significanta nd lastingi mpact.I t is highly likely that Gross uses a slider-blockm odel, together with a slip-
a computationaal pproachto the earthquakep roblemi n the dependenftr ictionalm odel (travelingd ensityw ave model)
spirit of GeoComplexityw ill enablem ajor advancesi n to understandth e earthquakeru pturep rocessT. urcottee t al.
earthquakes cienceA. classice xampleo f fractals tatistics, explain the behavioro f slider-blockm odelsi n termso f an
or scaling laws, is the Gutenberg-Richterf requency- inverse cascadea nd a mapping of a fractal network