From Marginal Adjustments to Meaningful Change

159 Pages·2010·1.23 MB·English

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Marginal
From
Adjustments
Meaningful
to
Change
Rethinking Weapon
System Acquisition
John Birkler, Mark V. Arena, Irv Blickstein,
Jeffrey A. Drezner, Susan M. Gates, Meilinda Huang,
Robert Murphy, Charles Nemfakos, Susan K. Woodward
Prepared for the Office of the Secretary of Defense
Approved for public release; distribution unlimited
NATIONAL DEFENSE RESEARCH INSTITUTE
The research described in this report was prepared for the Office of the
Secretary of Defense (OSD). The research was conducted within the
RAND National Defense Research Institute, a federally funded research
and development center sponsored by the Office of the Secretary of
Defense, the Joint Staff, the Unified Combatant Commands, the Navy,
the Marine Corps, the defense agencies, and the defense Intelligence
Community under Contract W74V8H-06-C-0002.
Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data
From marginal adjustments to meaningful change : rethinking weapon system
acquisition / John Birkler ... [et al.].
p. cm.
Includes bibliographical references.
ISBN 978-0-8330-5046-5 (pbk. : alk. paper)
1. United States. Dept. of Defense—Procurement. 2. United States—Armed
Forces—Procurement. 3. United States—Armed Forces—Weapons systems.
4. Defense contracts—United States. I. Birkler, J. L., 1944-
UC263.F758 2010
355.6'212—dc22
2010042130
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Preface
In today’s defense environment, pressure is growing on policymakers
to make the defense acquisition system more nimble and eff ective. To
help, prior to the 2008 U.S. presidential election, the RAND Corpo-
ration was asked to prepare a series of white papers as part of the Offi ce
of the Secretary of Defense’s eff ort to provide the next administration
with guidance on defense acquisition challenges in several areas likely
to be of critical importance to the new defense acquisition leadership:
competition, risk management, novel systems, prototyping, organiza-
tional and management issues, and the acquisition workforce. Th ese
eff orts led to six occasional papers that off er thought-provoking sug-
gestions based on decades of RAND and other research, new quan-
titative assessments, a RAND-developed cost-analysis methodology,
and the expertise of core RAND research staff . Th e papers gener-
ated considerable interest; indeed, demand exhausted the initial print
run. Th is monograph, a compilation of those six papers, will be of
interest to members of the acquisition and military requirements
communities.
Th is research was sponsored by the Offi ce of the Under Secre-
tary of Defense for Acquisition, Technology, and Logistics (OUSD
(AT&L)) and conducted within the Acquisition and Technology Pol-
icy Center of the RAND National Defense Research Institute, a feder-
ally funded research and development center sponsored by the Offi ce
of the Secretary of Defense, the Joint Staff , the Unifi ed Combatant
Commands, the Navy, the Marine Corps, the defense agencies, and the
defense Intelligence Community.
iii
iv From Marginal Adjustments to Meaningful Change
1 For more information on the RAND Acquisition and Technol-
2 ogy Policy Center, see http://www.rand.org/nsrd/about/atp.html or
3 contact the director (contact information is provided on the web page).
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Contents
Preface ......................................................................................................iii
Figures .......................................................................................................ix
Tables ........................................................................................................xi
Summary .................................................................................................xiii
Abbreviations ..........................................................................................xxi
CHAPTER ONE
Determining When Competition Is a Reasonable Strategy
for the Production Phase of Defense Acquisition ...........................1
Introduction ...............................................................................................1
Pentagon Acquisitions: Not Business As Usual ...........................................2
Th e Benefi ts and Drawbacks of Competition .............................................3
Benefi ts of Competition .........................................................................5
Drawbacks of Competition ....................................................................7
Conditions Favorable to Competition via a Second
Production Source ...........................................................................12
Conclusions .............................................................................................19
CHAPTER TWO
Untying Gulliver: Taking Risks to Acquire Novel
Weapon Systems .............................................................................21
Introduction .............................................................................................21
What Is a Novel System? ..........................................................................23
A Strategy for Fielding Novel Systems Concepts .......................................26
Conclusions .............................................................................................29
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vi From Marginal Adjustments to Meaningful Change
1
CHAPTER THREE
2 Dollar Value and Risk Levels: Changing How Weapon System
3 Programs Are Managed ..................................................................31
4 Introduction .............................................................................................31
5 Managing by Risk Level Versus Dollar Value ............................................32
6 Focusing on Causes Rather Th an Consequences .......................................33
7 Well-Defi ned Process for Assessing Technical Risk Is in Place ..............36
8 System Integration Risk Is Assessed, but at Later Stages .......................37
9 Th e Risks of Design Process Management Are Not Well
10 Understood .................................................................................40
11 Evaluation of Production Risks Lacks Rigor .........................................42
12 Th e Risk of Early Business Decisions Is Not Fully Appreciated ............45
13 Conclusions .............................................................................................47
14
15 CHAPTER FOUR
16 Improving Acquisition Outcomes:
17 Organizational and Management Issues .......................................51
18 Introduction .............................................................................................51
19 Th e Service Chiefs’ Role in the Acquisition
20 Process Is Too Limited .....................................................................52
21 Th e Combatant Commands’ Role in Defense Management .....................53
22 Joint Duty Requirements Erode Operational Insights Within
23 Acquisition Program Management...................................................55
24 Too Much Emphasis on Management Processes over Creativity
25 and Initiative ...................................................................................56
26 Conclusions .............................................................................................60
27
28 CHAPTER FIVE
29 On Prototyping: Lessons from RAND Research ...................................63
30 Introduction .............................................................................................63
31 What Is Prototyping?................................................................................64
32 What Are the Expected Benefi ts of Prototyping? ......................................67
33 Historical Evidence Is Mixed ....................................................................73
34 Conditions Th at Favor Prototyping ..........................................................78
35 Conclusions .............................................................................................81
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Contents vii
CHAPTER SIX
Shining a Spotlight on the Defense Acquisition
Workforce—Again .........................................................................85
Introduction .............................................................................................85
Th e Defense Acquisition Workforce:
Policy Context, Size, and Composition ............................................88
Defense Acquisition Workforce and Improvement Act .........................89
Civilian Personnel Management in DoD:
Th e National Security Personnel System ......................................92
Strategic Human Capital Planning for the Acquisition Workforce .......94
Basis of Main Concerns About the Defense Acquisition Workforce ..........96
Is the Defense Acquisition Workforce Really Too Small? ......................96
Overuse or Inappropriate Use of Contractors .........................................104
Where Are Contractors Being Used? ..................................................104
Why Are Contractors Being Used? .....................................................106
Th e Workforce Lacks the Skills to Accomplish the Workload .................107
Conclusions ...........................................................................................108
Occupational Grouping Defi nitions Used in Th is Report .......................112
Quality Assurance and Auditing .........................................................112
Program Management and Logistics ..................................................112
Procurement ......................................................................................113
Science and Engineering ....................................................................113
Sensitivity Checks ..............................................................................115
About the Authors ................................................................................117
Bibliography .........................................................................................123
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