Foresight: The Art and Science of Anticipating the Future

299 Pages·2008·3.06 MB·English

by  Deni Loveridge

Foresight
Since the early 1990s interest in foresight has undergone one of its periodic
resurgences and has led to a rapid growth in formal foresight studies backed by
governments and transnational institutions, including many from the United
Nations. However, texts that counterbalance in-depth practical experience with
an exposition and integration of the many theoretical strands that underpin
the art and theory of foresight are rare.
Foresight: The art and science of anticipating the future provides entrepreneurs,
business leaders, investors, inventors, scientists, politicians, and many others
with a succinct, integrated guide to understanding foresight studies and using
them as means for strategy development. The text dispels the belief that
anticipations are ‘mere guesswork’, and conveys the depth of thought needed,
implicitly or explicitly, to understand human foresight. The book examines:
• The role of foresight and its institutional counterpart in the modern
world
• The epistemology underlying foresight
• The need to extend foresight activity into wider spheres, including
sustainable development
• The role that foresight plays in planning processes (including scenario
planning)
Much of the material in the book is based upon the internationally known
Foresight course at the Manchester Business School’s Institute of Innovation
Research (MIoIR), formerly PREST, which the author developed and directed
from 1999 to 2003.
Denis Loveridge is an honorary Visiting Professor at the Manchester Business
School’s Institute of Innovation Research (formerly PREST), UK. He joined
PREST in 1991 as an honorary Simon Fellow after 44 years in industry.

Foresight
The art and science of
anticipating the future
Denis Loveridge
First published 2009
by Routledge
270 Madison Ave, New York, NY 10016
Simultaneously published in the UK by Routledge
2 Park Square, Milton Park, Abingdon, Oxon 0X14 4RN
Routledge is an imprint of the Taylor & Francis Group, an informa
business
© 2009 Denis Loveridge
This edition published in the Taylor & Francis e-Library, 2008.
“To purchase your own copy of this or any of Taylor & Francis or Routledge’s
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All rights reserved. No part of this book may be reprinted
or reproduced or utilised in any form or by any electronic,
mechanical, or other means, now known or hereafter invented,
including photocopying and recording, or in any information
storage or retrieval system, without permission in writing from
the publishers.
Trademark Notice: Product or corporate names may be
trademarks or registered trademarks, and are used only for
identification and explanation without intent to infringe.
Library of Congress Cataloging in Publication Data
Loveridge, Denis.
Foresight : the art and science of anticipating the future /
Denis Loveridge.
p. cm.
Includes bibliographical references and index.
1. Forecasting--Methodology. 2. Forecasting--Philosophy.
3. Knowledge, Theory of. 4. Planning. I. Title.
CB158.L628 2008
303.49–dc22
2008002330
ISBN 0-203-89415-4(cid:13)(cid:10) Master e-book ISBN
ISBN10: 0–415–39814–2 (hbk)
ISBN 10: 0–415–39815–0 (pbk)
ISBN10: 0–203–89415–4 (ebk)
ISBN13: 978–0–415–39814–5 (hbk)
ISBN 13: 978–0–415–39815–2 (pbk)
ISBN13: 978–0–203–89415–6 (ebk)
To
Marion …
… and Tracey, Jason and Natasha

Contents
List of figures viii
List of tables x
Preface xi
Acknowledgements xv
Introduction 1
ParT I
Systems and foresight 9
1 Foresight and systems thinking: An appreciation 11
2 Foresight and systems – epistemology and theory 38
3 Institutional foresight: Practice and practicalities 79
4 Foresight in industry 115
5 Generalisable outcomes 130
ParT II
Scenarios and sustainability 145
6 Foresight, scenarios and scenario planning 147
7 Sustainable world 169
8 The world of 2030, 2050 and beyond 224
Epilogue 250
Notes 252
Bibliography 254
Figure credits 265
Index 267
List of figures
1.1 Streams of systems thinking and applications 16
1.2 Appreciation, learning, anticipations and foresight: adaptation
to a cascade of situations of ever changing shape 23
1.3 Evolution of learning, appreciation, anticipation and foresight 24
1.4 Notional representation of ‘behavioural pattern’ and its
components 25
1.5 Four types of models of the future 31
1.6 Needs of information and methods for models of the future 34
1.7 Matching the nature of models, their information and methods 35
1.8 Relationship between Foresight, Technology Assessment and
Evaluation 36
1.9 The ‘telenomy’ concept redeveloped 36
2.1 Mitchell’s original VALSTM1 behavioural typology 47
2.2 Notional ‘picture’ of the territory of the future 53
2.3 Equally valid means of presenting an uncertain future 54
2.4 Examples of consensus and multimodal distributions 57
2.5 Notional policy matrix 59
2.6 Elements of a policy hierarchy 60
2.7 Aggregation of individual value/norm sets and negotiation into
group values/norms 60
A2.2.1 Illustration of Attractiveness vs. Feasibility matrix 77
A2.2.2 Illustration of Attractiveness vs. Feasibility plot 77
A2.2.3 Interpretation of Attractiveness vs. Feasibility 78
3.1 Influence of choice between broad or narrow consultation 90
4.1 Business cube: an illustration of the need for foresight in business 119
4.2 Illustration of a notional scanning process 127
5.1 Stylised representation of the four adaptive ecosystem functions 143
5.2 Addition of resilience to the adaptive cycle as a third dimension 143
6.1 Role of speculation and conjecture in foresight 150
6.2 Managerial response to placing of scenarios 158
6.3 A process for learning to appreciate situations 159
7.1 Legitimisation of new forms of behaviour 173
List of figures ix
7.2 Influence of the 3-RRR’s 174
7.3 Kernel of a model of sustainability 205
7.4 Long duration world needs 214
7.5 Interrelatedness of world needs 214
7.6 Symbolic representation of Venturi-like process for sorting ideas
flowing from thought experiments 216
7.7 Notional policy matrix 217
7.8 Interrelatedness between the notional policy matrix and the
STEEPV set 218
7.9 Venn diagram illustrating role of possibility, feasibility and
desirability in sustainability 219
A7.1 A notion of inter-relatedness for sustainability 221
8.1 The Earth’s cosmological home in relation to foresight 234
8.2 Long duration human needs and forces acting on them 235
8.3 Interrelatedness of long duration human needs and world needs 236
8.4 Content of long duration needs 236
8.5 Some possible elements of geo-social change 239
8.6 Some possible elements of a geo-science and technology set 239
8.7 Some possible elements of a geo-economic set 240
8.8 Some possible elements of a geo-ecology set 241
8.9 Some possible elements of a geo-political set 242
8.10 Some possible elements of a geo-value-norm change set 243
8.11 World population growth 1950–2050 244
8.12 World population growth rate 1950–2050 245
8.13 World average total fertility rate 1950–2050 245
8.14 Notional pictorial description of the post-World War II
demographic transition 247
8.15 Notional illustration of the demographic transition after some
decades 247
8.16 Pattern of world population by regions 1950–2050 248