Food Security Issues in the Arab Near East. A Report of the United Nations Economic Commission for Western Asia

246 Pages·1979·6.48 MB·English

by  A. A. El-Sherbini (Eds.)

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Food Security Issues
in the A rab Near East
A Report of the United Nations
Economic Commission for Western Asia
Edited by
A. A. EL-SHERBINI
Joint EC WA /FA O Agriculture Division, Beirut, Lebanon
Published for the
UNITED NATIONS ECONOMIC COMMISSION
FOR WESTERN ASIA
by
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First edition 1979
British Library Cataloguing in Publication Data
Economic Commission for Western Asia
Food security issues in the Arab Near East.
1. Food supply - Arab countries
I. Title
II. El-Sherbini, A A
338.Γ9Ί74927 HD9018.A5 79-40284
ISBN 0-08-023447-X
in order to make this volume available as economically
and as rapidly as possible the author's typescript has
been reproduced in its original form. This method un-
fortunately has its typographical limitations but it is
hoped that they in no way distract the reader.
Printed in Great Britain by Page Bros. (Norwich) Ltd.
List of Annexes
ANNEXES TO PART I:
Annex I, 1975 Pood balance sheets for selected 45
countries in the Arab countries
Table 1 - Iraq 46
Table 2 - Jordan 50
Table 3 - Lebanon 53
Table 4 - Syrian Arab Republic 56
Table 5 - Yemen Arab Republic 59
Table 6 - Yemen People's Democratic Republic 62
Annex I I · Demand project ions and production estimates 65
for se l ec ted countries in the Arab Near East
Table 1 - Basic assumptions for domestic
demand project ions
Table 2 - Projection of aggregate domestic demand
Table 3 - Nutri t ion analys is (average per capita
per day)
Table 4 - Perspectives of agricultural
production, 1980
Table 5 - Perspectives of l ives tock
production, 1980
Table 6 - 1 9 7 5 Pood pos i t ion
Table 7 - 1980 Pood pos i t ion
Iraq 66
Jordan 74
Lebanon 81
Syrian Arab Republic 88
Yemen Arab Republic 95
Yemen People's Democratic Republic 102
ANNEXES TO PART I I :
Annex I · Table 1 - I n s t a b i l i t y of wheat production in 173
East Jordan
Table 2 - Mean, standard deviation and coef f i c ient 174
of variat ion of r a i n f a l l in E. Jordan
Table 3 - Probabil i ty dis tr ibut ion of l e v e l s of 176
r a i n f a l l in different zones of E.Jordan
Table 4 - Co-variation of wheat production, y i e l d , 177
area and t o t a l ra in fa l l in E.Jordan,
1961-75
V I 1
Vlll List of Annexes
Table 5 - Rainfall by months and wheat yields
A) East Jordan 178
B) Irbid D i s t r i c t 178
C) Aman " 179
D) Karak " 179
E) Balqa · 180
P) Ma· an ·' 180
Graph 1 - I n s t a b i l i t y of production 181
Graph 2 - Co-variation of production, area, 182
y i e l d and r a i n f a l l
Graph 3 - Regresion of y i e l d on ra infa l l 183
Formulae for forecast ing the y i e l d of wheat
- in East Jordan 184
- in Aman Di s t r i c t 185
- in Irbid " 186
- in Karak " 187
Annex I I . Table 1 - Production of rain-fed ordinary wheat 18
for t o t a l Syria and major producing
Mohafazat, 1958-75
Table 2 - Rain-fed wheat in Syria, 1958-75: area 189
y i e l d , production, r a i n f a l l , r e l a t i v e
humidity, days of rain , temperature
Table 3 - Rain-fed wheat in Syria: means and 190
standard deviations of the variables
by Mohafazat 1958-75
Table 4 - Regresion of the y i e l d of rain-fed 191
wheat in Syria on cl imatic variables :
optimum regressions by Mohafazat
Table 5 - Wheat in Syria - contribution of c l i - 192
matic variables t o the fluctuat ions of
the y i e l d s of rain-fed ordinary wheat
Table 6 - Meteorological stat ions 193
Table 7 - Yield and production of irr igated or- 194
dinary wheat for t o t a l Syria and major
producing Mohafazat 1958-75
Table 8A - Acreage under wheat in Syria, 1973-76 195
8P - Wheat Production in Syria, 1973-76 195
8Y - Wheat Yields in Syria, 1973-76 195
Table 9 - Population and supply: u t i l i z a t i o n of 196
wheat i n Syria, 1958-75
Table 10 - Average wheat y i e l d s by Mohafazat 197
Table 11 - Rainfall and wheat y i e l d s in Syria and 197
East Jordan
Lis t of Annexes ix
Graph 1 - I n s t a b i l i t y of product ion 198
Graph 2 - Yie lds and r a i n f a l l 19
Graph 3 - Co-var ia t ion of y i e l d , p r e c i p i t a t i o n 20
days of r a i n f a l l and r e l a t i v e humidity
Graph 4 - Co-var ia t ion of t h e y i e l d s of r a i n - f e d 201
wheat i n Syr i a and in East Jordan
Graph 5 - Co-var ia t ion of r a i n f a l l in Syr i a and 202
i n East Jordan
ANNEXES TO PART I I I :
1
Anex I« Matrix s p e c i f i c a t i o n s 27
Anex I I , C l a s s i f i c a t i o n of Arab a g r i c u l t u r a l imports 29
according t o t h e i r v u l n e r a b i l i t y t o fore ign
p o l i t i c a l pressu res
Table 1 - Scores of v u l n e r a b i l i t y of var ious 231
imports of t h e Arab world
Table 2 - Lis t of high r i s k commodities with 232
important a l t e r n a t i v e sources of supply
Annex I I I .
Table 1 - Total a g r i c u l t u r a l and o i l t r a d e for 23
t h e Arab c o u n t r i e s , 1971-73
Table 2 - Structure of Arab a g r i c u l t u r a l expor ts 234
and imports by commodity group, aver -
age 1971-73
Table 3 - Rate of growth of a g r i c u l t u r a l expor ts 235
and imports of Arab coun t r i e s between
1970-72 and 1973-75
Table 4 - Per c a p i t a net import of food and l i v e 236
animals in s e l e c t e d c o u n t r i e s , average
1972-74
Table 5 - Import dependence i n c e r e a l s for s e l - 237
ected c o u n t r i e s , average 1973-75
Table 6 - Unit value of imports and expor ts of 238
s e l e c t e d commodities i n t h e Arab
c o u n t r i e s , 1971-73
Table 7 - Unit value of a g r i c u l t u r a l expor t s and 239
imports for a l l Arab coun t r i e s 1971-73
Table 8 - A summary view of Arab dependence on 239
developed market economies, average
1971-73
Table 9 - Arab a g r i c u l t u r a l expor ts t o and im- 240
p o r t s from out s ide t h e reg ion , 1971-73
average
Table 10 - Estimated per c a p i t a a v a i l a b i l i t y of 241
a r a b l e land 1974
Table 11 - Changes i n terms of t r a d e of s e l e c t e d 241
Arab coun t r i e s
Foreword
Pood security is now assuming primary importance in the
Arab region. Agricultural production has not kept pace with
surging food demand. The latter is stimulated by a popula-
tion explosion and by rising incomes, particularly in the
oil-rich countries where per capita food imports presently
are highest in the world, standing at nearly U.S.$400 in
1978.
These developments have prompted the Economic Commission
for Western Asia (ECWA) to give considerable attention to
various aspects of Arab food security issues. This is
evidenced by the pivotal position which this subject occu-
pies in the work programme of the Joint ECWA/PAO Agriculture
Division. It is also manifested in the catalytic role of
ECWA in organizing regional meetings on food security such
as the one held in Kuwait in April 1977.
The publication of this volume on food security provides
an opportunity for the consolidation of all work undertaken
by ECWA for easy reference by all those concerned with Arab
problems in general, and food security issues in particular.
M.S. Al-Attar
Executive Secretary
July 1978
XI
Introduction
Dr. Abdel-Aziz El-Sherbini
Chief, Joint EC WA /FA O Agriculture Division
Organization of the book
1. As in other parts of the world, there is also growing concern about the food
situation in countries of Western Asia. The governments of the Economic Commis-
sion for VJestern Asia (ECWA) countries during the First Session of the Commission
in 1974 stressed their apprehension about the worsening food position in the
region and the complex problems thereby generated. Indeed, in a number of ECWA
countries it has become increasingly difficult for governments to assure steady
supplies of basic foodstuffs and in at least two countries emergency food aid has
been necessary to maintain minimum safe levels of food intake for the masses of
the population.
2. The same concern over the magnitude and complexity of food problems at the
global level culminated in holding the 1974 United Nations World Food Conference,
1
convened by the General Assembly of the United Nations /,and entrusting it with
developing ways and means whereby the international community, as a whole, could
take specific action to resolve the world food problem within the broader context
of development and international co-operation. The Conference generated con-
siderable interest and produced an impressive declaration on the eradication of
hunger and malnutrition, supported by an important three-pronged programme of
action, focusing on increasing and rationalizing food aid, establishing and main-
taining adequate food reserve stocks and improving agricultural production in food
deficit countries -/ · The world at large has accepted the challenge of the food
crisis. The developing countries, in particular, in a major bid to mobilize their
own resources and to tackle their food problem, took the initiative to start the
implementation of plans to strengthen their agricultural base and to boost their
1
/ General Assembly Resolution No. 3180 (XXVIIl).
_2/United Nations, Report of the World Food Conference, Rome, 5-16 November 1974»
New York 19751 Ρ·64 (UN Publication No. 75.11.A.3). The action programme is
spelled out in 20 Resolutions.
xiii
xiv Introduction
food production· V The Thirteenth FAO Regional Conference for the Near East
adopted, in October 1976, the Tunis Declaration which cal ls upon Member Nations of
the region to give the highest prior i ty to food and agricultural development, par-
t i cu la r ly to increasing food production and to take al l necessary measures to th i s
end.
3. The present food cr i s i s is not simply a cyclical phenomenon, nor has it come
about suddenly. It has wrought i t s way gradually and imperceptibly,since the exis-
tence of huge surpluses with the large food exporters, unt i l the early seventies,
obscured the fact that the supply-demand relationship had been vrorsening consis-
tent ly over the past two decades. Food production has been barely keeping pace
with population growth. However, the problem does not directly l i e with the
dynamics of agricultural production, but in the widely differing growth rates of
food demand between developed and developing countries. The unfortunate con-
sequence has been maldistribution with one part of the world having too much food
and the other part having too l i t t l e and with no acceptable mechanism to balance or
improve the pattern or to solve the chronic state of hunger and malnutrition
throughout the world.
4. Thus, developments on both sides of the supply-demand equation explain the
world's food predicament. On the supply side, there appears to be serious dif-
ficulty in increasing al l four of the basic agricultural resources (land, water,
energy and f e r t i l i z e r ) . Moreover, the crop resul ts of recent years have accentua-
ted the crucial and unpredictable role of the weather. On the demand side, popula-
t ion growth and r is ing affluence are rapidly stimulating food consumption and
threatening the ecological balance that underpins the process of food production.
Efforts to produce more food, however, seem pointless as the majority of the poor
cannot afford to buy more food. The l a t t e r underlines the urgency for gainful
employment of many more people and a more just income distr ibution.
The ingredients of the present food cr i s i s
5. Prior to the present c r i s i s , there have been periodic drops in production, such
as the shortfall in the U.S.S.R. grain crop in 1963 and again in 1965 and the 1965-
66 drought in India that led to serious crop fai lure . These drops produced tense
situations at the time but no cr i s i s emerged and world grain prices regained
relat ively stable.
6. Thus, the 1960's witnessed the experience of managing production shortfal ls
without visible effect on grain prices. Coupled with the optimism of the Green
Revolution, th i s created a climate of general euphoria about the world food si tua-
f
t ion which lasted unt i l the early 1970 s. It should also be noted that world grain
stocks reached an all-time high in 1962. The large producing countries, particu-
lar ly the U.S. attempted to eliminate high food surpluses by reducing stocks
through acreage res t r ic t ion . Consequently, in 1971 stocks had fallen to the i r low-
est level in more than a decade. Unfortunately, serious crop failures followed
shortly afterwards. In 1972 grain production fel l by 39 million metric tons, of
which 13 million M.T. were the result of the shortfall in the U.S.S.R. The same
situation was repeated in 1974 when droughts led to a decline in cereal output by
Y Action by the industrialized world, part icularly with regard to the immediate
problem of food aid and the medium-range problem of reserve stocks, has proved a
slow s ta r t e r . A real breakthrough on these fronts will require much more
vigorous measures at the national as well as the international level . Action by
the United States in th i s field is crucial for the world's hungry people, since
that country is at least as dominant in the global supply of food as the OPEC
countries are in the supply of o i l .
Introduction xv
40 million M.T. Apart from a decrease of 38,8 million M.T· in North America, the
world's largest grain exporting region, production dropped by 28 million M.T. in
the U.S.S.R. In contrast to the policies of the 1960's, the U.S.S.R, decided on
these two occasions to make up the deficits through imports rather than by curbing
domestic consumption. With dangerously low stocks in existence - barely one month's
consumption - wheat prices rose from U.S.$60 to U.S.$200 a ton between 1972 and
1974, Given the present levels of grain stocks and the annual necessary require-
ments, significant grain shortfalls in large developing countries or in developed
countries, that are important producers and traders, cannot be readily met without
leading to a food crisis.
!
7. The developments in the first half of the 1970 s explain the increasing re-
liance on trade to supply the grain needs of a large number of countries. Hov/ever,
there has been a concurrent unwillingness on the part of large exporting countries
to maintain high-cost contingency reserves in large quantities and on a permanent
basis. Thus, the solution to the food crisis must not be sought so much in de-
creasing consumption by the rich as in increasing production by the poor. This
would call for a serious reconsideration of agricultural production policies in
developing countries as attempted in this study.
The food situation in 1975-76
8. In 1975 "the hopes for a sharp recovery in world cereal output and food produc-
tion as a whole did not materialize. The 1975 world cereal crop was only margin-
ally better than the potentially disastrous production results of 1974* However,
fs
1975 problem was largely concentrated in the U.S.S.R. where cereal output de-
er cerrt
clined by 30 per cent or 58 million M.T., representing a full 5 P °f world
cereal production. Indeed, there was a very large improvement in the developing
and developed market economies and China fortunately made considerable surpluses
available for export, (in the ECWA countries, the outcome of the 1975 crop was a
r e
mixed result and, at best, it could be called average.) In 1975? f° ^ fourth
year in succession, stocks remained close to minimum working levels and well below
the minimum level considered necessary for food security (17 to 18 per cent of
ne
annual consumption). At the end of the year 19751 "^ world was once again left
very heavily dependent on the outcome of the 1976 crop.
9. Fortunately, 1976 harvests were good and grain crops recovered from the 1974-75
low levels, permitting some rebuilding of depleted stocks (up to 13-14 per cent of
annual consumption). The news that American farmers might decide on important
reductions of the area under cereals in view of the mounting carry-over stocks in
that country, however, dimmed the high expectations for the next year's crop,
10. In fact there remained a good deal of uncertainty stemming not only from
weather conditions, but also from the growing inter-dependence between cereals and
livestock in developed market economies (and soon also in Eastern Europe) and from
the increased reliance on trade to satisfy consumption needs. Any serious crop
failure could have dramatic consequences for the masses of the population in
importing developing countries.
The regional food problem
11. The above succinct analysis of the causes of the food problem at the global
level provides the background for the regional food gap and related problems. In
broad terms, it reflects the major trends and problems faced with regard to food in
countries of Western Asia. During the past twenty years, the growth performance of
r
food production in these countries centered around 2.5 P© cent per annum, varying
widely from country to country with extremes from -0,2 per cent per annum in the
Yemen A.R. to 5·0 per cent per annum in Lebanon, as illustrated in Table 1.