FOOD PRODUCTION IN THE PEOPLE'S REPUBLIC OF CHINA Anthony M. Tang Bruce Stone ...

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FOOD PRODUCTION IN THE

PEOPLE'S REPUBLIC OF CHINA

Anthony M. Tang

Bruce Stone

Research Report 15

International Food PoJicy Research Institute

May 1980
Copyright 1980 International Food Policy Research Institute.
All rights reserved. Sections of this report may be reproduced without the express
permission of but with acknowledgment to the International Food Policy Research
Institute.
Library of Congress Cataloging in Publication Data
Tang, Anthony M., 1924-
Food production in the People's Republic of China.
(Research report- International Food Policy Research Institute; 15)
I. Agriculture- Economic aspects-China. 2. Agriculture and state-
China. 3. Food supply-China. 4. Agriculture- China. 5. Grain-China. I.
Stone, Bruce, 1948- joint author. II. Title. Ill. Series: International Food
Policy Research Institute. Research report-Inienationdl Food Policy ReseaiL:h
Institute; 15.
ID2097.T34 338.1'9'51 80-17372
ISBN 0-89629-017-4
CONTENTS
Foreword
Food and Agriculture in' China: Trends and Projections,

1952 77 and 2000

by Anthony . Tang
Preface
1. Summary 13
2. Introduction 15
3. The Data 22
4. The !952-77 Record 25
5. The Projections 34
6. Supply and Demand Projections Consolidated 40
Appendix 1: Supplementary Tables 43
Appendix 2: Expanded Notes on Text Tables 68
TABLES
1. Value of agricultural output and value added by agriculture,

1952 to 1977
18
2. Comparison of Tang estimates and official 1979 releases 23
3. Quantity and value of output of grains, soybeans, and cotton.

1952 to 1977
26
4. The aggregate input index, 1952 to 1977 27
5. Factor i)rodulctivit, , index, total and primary, and value added

per worker, 1952 to 1977
28
6. Estimated cotnsumption of grains, excluding soybeans, 1952

lo 1977
31
7. Projections of demand for all agricultural output, 1977 to 2000 35
8. Projections of direct and indirect grain demand, 1977 to 2060 36
9. Domestic supply projections to 2000 38
10. Commodity trends and projections by trend extralpolation, to
2000 40
1I. Agricultural labor force (midyear) estimates, 1952 to 1977 43
12. Current inputs, 1952 to 1977 47
13. Current input indexes, 1952 to 1977 50
14. Land input, 1952 to 1977 51
15. Livestock estimated (year-end) holdings, total value of holdings,

value of livestock produced, 1952 to 1977
56
16. China: estimated and projected (midyear) population, 1949 to

2000
60
17. Organic fertilizer: sources, estimated quantities utilized, and
nutrient content, 1952 to 1977 61
18. Farm machinery, 1952 to 1977 65
19. Chinese exports of live animals and meat to the free world and

the U.S.S.R., 1955 to 1973
65
20. Relative input weights of selected countries and China 66
China's 1985 Foodgrain Projection Target: Issues and

Prospects

by Bruce Stone
1. Summary 85
2. Issues and Prospects 88
5. Components of Demand 92
4. Utilization of Agricultural Inputs 117
5. The Effects of Other Policy Changes and

Technological Developments
146
Appendix 1: The Total Amount of Foodgrains Required in 1985 to
Supply the Net Increment to the 1979-85 Population
With the 1978 Average Ration 163
Appendix 2: Toward a More Appropriate Methodology for Pursuing
the Macroeconomic Partials Approach: Justification
for Choice of Method.I1ogy and Evaluative Periods 166
TABLES

1. Two approximations of a consistent "official" foodgrain
output series, 1949-78 88
2. Changes in the distribution of per capita income produced,
1930s to 1952 94
3. Average rural provincial foodgrain and income distribution 95
4. Average income and foodgiain consumption per person, and

the average and marginal propensity to consume foodgrains in

1954
106
5. Farm area irrigated per pump well in China: provincial and
regional averages of selected periods between 1949 an(d 1979 119
6. The relationship bei -en changes in foodgrain output and
changes in irrigated ,area, 1957-78, 1965-75, and 1970-75 126
7. Expected response rates of foodgrain outl)ut to chemical
fertilizers applied 127
8. National aggregate response rates of foodgrain output to all
fertilizers applied, late 1960s to 1970s 129
9. Lagged averages of national aggregate response rates of

foodgrair, output to chemical fertilizers applied, 1960s to

!970s
131
10. Responses of foodgrain yields to incremental applications of
chemical fertilizers in experiments. 1947-65 132
11. Foodgrain production disaggregated by crop, 1957 and 1977 157
12. Estimated midyear population, births, deaths, birth rates, and
death rates, 1979-85 164
ILLUSTRATIONS
I International cross-section relationship between per capita
grain consumption per year, and per capita calorie intake per day
of all food 93
2. Agricultural growth in two categories of localities 152
3. Domestic chemical fertilizer production, 1957-85; chemical
fertilizer supplies, 1957-79; and grain production compared with
nitrogen nutrients absorbed by plants, 1957-85 167
FOREWORD
In 1977 the International Food Policy demand. Stone's initial perceptions, the
Research Institute published projections to data he uses, and his view of the data differ
1990 of the production and consumption of from Tang's, but his major conclusions are
basic food staples. The People's Republic of strikingly similar.
China was not included in those projections The mait. papers by Tang and Stone have
because of the difficulty of using the data been the subject of three semina-s held at
on China in a manner comparable to the way the International Food Policy Research Insti­
the data for other Third World countries was tute during the past year. One seminar came
used. However, China's nearly I billion at an early stage ofTang's paper and included
people and more than a quarter of a billion a wide range of people concerned with
tons of grain seems an excessive omission. development topics. Later a set of China
According to a recent statement from the specialists convened to discuss the data and
People's Republic of China, there are in analysis in detail. Finally, a small group
China some 200 million people with in- discussed both the Tang and Stone papers
adequate food intake. Thus the size of the from the point of view of their implications
food problem in China requires attention to development policy as well as to China.
because it has direct implications for the This last group included T. W. Schultz,
welfare of large numbers of people and Vernon Ruttan, Thomas Wiens, Radha Sinha,
because it has indirect effects on the food and members of the IFPRI staff. The papers
and food production input availabilities for reflect the comments made at these dis­
other countries. Even small imbalances in cussions.
domestic supply and demand in China are In addition, Bruce Stone has developed
magnified into substantial effects elsewhere an important set of tables on aspects of
in the world. China's agiculture. These include many
Because of the paucity of hard data and estimates illustrating the difficulties of
the controversial nature of the political selecting appropriate data and providing the
system, there are considerable differences range of what is available. His commentaries
of opinion about food trends in China serve as q careful guide in appraising,
among analysts in noncommunist countries, selecting, and judging this data. This work is
IFPRI provides in this Research Report two to be publishe-1 as IFPRI Research Report
contributions to thought in these areas. No. 16.
Each author began his analysis with different At the risk of adding even a further set of
perceptions. Each author offers the data numbers, Iattempt in the following paragraphs
with which he has worked as the basis for to distill general conclusions.
alternative analyses and conclusions. China's post- 1950 history of agriculture
The first piece by Anthony Tang is a seems to divide into three periods. The first
broad analysis of trends and proioctions for is the period of recovery from the incredible
food and agriculture in China. In particular, disruption of the decades before 1950. From
Tang docs what is necessary to understand then until 1957 reconstruction efforts caused
agricultura. development in any developing agricultural production to return to earlier
country. He places agricultural policy in the levels of productivity. Growth was rapid, but
context of the broad set of objectives for the gradually declined. It averaged 5.8 percent
economy. He then examines the past record for the period 1950 to 1957.
in detail and presents projections. In the The second period is best measured from
process he provides an iininense amount of 1957 to 1971, which were both average years for
carefully worked and analyzed data. His weather and without major political disruption
lucid and candid presentation is refreshing, In the years between, major disruptions resulted
stimulating, and important. in short periods of fast growth, slow growth,
Bruce Stone concentrates on the foodgrain and even declines of production. Attention
production targets for 1985 as stateJ by the was generally focused on industrial growth.
government of the People's Republic of There was little opportunity to expand culti­
China, makes judgments about the potential vated area, although irrigated acreage grew
for meeting those targets, and analyzes their moderately rapidly and the base of modern
consistency with various assumptions about inputs was too small to allow even rapid
growth rates to affect overall output growth or major political disruption can affect
rates very much. The effect was a growth production by as much as the difference
rare of about 2 percent. This just kept pace between the 3 and 31/. percent growth rates
with population growth. spread over 10 years. Second, changes in
In the third period the production growth trade can have an effect cqual to a large part
rate appears to have accelerated significantly of such a difference.
for the comparable weather years of 1970 For tile longer run tile picture is more
and 1975, when the growth rate is calculated difficult to estimate. It is obvious that the
to be34 percent. Both years were good crop growth rate of the 1957-71 period is inade­
years, with the edge to 1975, and the spread (uate to meet the needs of the new economic
of five years adds some credibility to the policies. IHowever, Tang's median projection
calculated rate. This high rate was achieved for the increase of demand, 3 percent per
despite some apparent slowing of the growth year, is based on assumptions that appear to
rate of inorganic fertilizer availability and give a political position consistent with the
either slowing of or no increase in tile past. In keepingwith the preceding analysis,
growth rate for irrigated areas. But both were it seems feasible to match that with a
operating off much larger bases than before, sustained 3 percent growth rate in foodgrains
Although it is not clear from such a short production. It is notable that Tang's median
period tile extent to which the accelerated output growth rate for foodgrains (which
growth is due to short-term factors or changed would be higher if he worked on the 1975
incentives, it would not be inconsistent with base rather than the 1977 base) is essentially
the information at hand to expect tile growth tile same as tile demand growth rate. Ills
rate to accelerate beyond 3 percent. estimate is based on tilt)lanned input
Looking ahead to 1985, it seems possible levels and i reasonable, arbitrarily derived
but not likely that the growth target will be assumption about increases of factor pro­
reached. This conclusion is made partly on ductivity.
the assumption that 1975, the base )- ii !or The inferences that follow about trade in
the 10-year plan, was a normal year (and foodgrains are that the gaps are so small that
therefore an appropriate base for projections): their existence depends on short-term
that the effort to achieve growth was con- weather and short-ter and long-term political
sistent from 1975 (growth in fertilizer avail- factors. If demand grows at about a 31,2
ability is consistent with that view): that the percent rate and raises the real income of the
three years following 1975 were poor weather lower fifth of the income distribution and of
years, thereby reducing growth below the the inore prosperous urban classes, and if
long-term trend in the first years of the 10- production growth does -lot rise above 3
year period: and hence that tile appropriate pwrcenL then imports co'.ild grow an additional
growth rate implicit in the target is tile 31 ) 15 million tons a year. That, however, seems
percent needed to inciease tile output of unlikely. If the produdtion increases to a 31/2
foodgrains in 1975 to the target level in percent rate, and the growth of livesgtock or
1985. It should be recognized, of course, urbn income follows, then imports could
that the required rate is 50 percent higher halt. Right now it seems that these forces
than the long-term rate of the 1957-71 will push more toward maintaining net
period.
impors or increasing them modestly.
The planned acceleration in growth of It is notable that Tang's approach relates
grain supplies is large enough to require tie asSUll1ptions for demand and supplg and
significant coordination with demand. File that his high growth rate assumptica for
difference between a 3 and a 31,2 percent production assUmes even greater acceleration
growth rate betwee,, 1975 and 1985 is 15 in consumption, and hence, higher imports.
million metric tons. If the lower income That is consistent with a position which I
people are to benefit, provisions lust be ient ion for India and set forth in The New
made to increase their real incomes. If the Economics of Growttr .AStrategly for India and
berefit is to be through livestock, then the Developing World (Ithaca. N.Y.: cornell
provision must be made to expand the University Press, 1976).
livestock industry in tile appropriate timte Tang ma kes a major contribut ion in his
and place. The latter may prove difficult in discussion of the relation of agricultural
both the traditional sector and the large- policy to overall development strategy. The
scale hog and poultry farms. similaritv of his discussion to my own
Two caveats are in order. First, weather writing on India, particularly with respect to
the Mahalanobis model, is striking. Tang development.
approaches political questions that are in- We at IFPRI hope these two different,
extricable from questions of development careful analyses will settle a number of
strategy. There are important lessons for controversial questions and provide con­
other countries in these broader economic siderable light on some important develop­
and political relationships. ment issues.
Stone's analysis tries to develop the
essence of what needs to be done if China's
food targets are to be met and indicates how John W. Mellor
difficult and perhaps unlikely meeting them
will be. His joint treatment of supply and
denand forces demonstrates a great deal of Washington, D. C.
value about the processes of agricultural May 1980
FOOD AND AGRICULTURE IN CHINA:

TRENDS AND PROJECTIONS, 1952 -77 and 2000

Anthony M. Tang
PREFACE
In 1967-68 1 had the considerable Center for Chinese Studies whose research
pleasure of visiting the Chinese University support from the Mellon Foundation via the
of Hong Kong on a Rockefeller Overseas Chinese Economic Studies Project is grate­
Professorship from Vanderbilt University. fully acknowledged. To Alexander Eckstein,
One of my responsibilities was to direct a director of the project, whose death during
commodity projection study for Hong Kong my visit grieved every China scholar, I owe a
for 1970 to 1980. Hong Kong was the closest very personal debt ofgratitude in memoriam,
thing to a classical laissez-faire economy to expressed here with respect and fondness.
be found anywhere. It had been booming at Mr. Thomas R. Gottscharig, my invaluable
the Japanese rate of growth, though and able research assistant at Michigan, has
temporarily slowed by the spillover effects my thanks, the magnitude of which he alone
of the Cultural Revolution then in full swing can fathom in full. His contribution was
on the Chinese mainland a few miles away. such as to earn him the role of a coinvesti­
The Government of Hong Kong has seldom gator. Iwish him well as he joins the ranks of
collected statistics. There were no eco- scholars and analysts of China.
nomic planners to demand it; nor has the I also express my appreciation to the
economy suffered any apparent ill effect International Food Policy Research Insti­
from a lack of it. Like the People's Republic tute for encouraging this stud and to Dr.
of China, Hong Kong has had but one Leonardo A. Paulino for the opportunity to
census, a modest demographic census in work with him. I have benefited from
1961. To make projections it was first comments by Paulino and Bruce Stone on
necessary to"estimate" from data fragments an earlier draft of the work presented at a
a time series for Hong Kong's GDP. The seminar at the Institute in December 1978.
present study is reminiscent of that exer- Dr. John W. Mellor, director of the Institute,
cise. and two anonymous reviewers have com­
The unprecedented surge of 1969-73 mented on the revised version of the study.
(unforeseen in the somber days of 1967-68) The views and findings presented in this
and the subsequent "stagflation" following study are, of course, mine and need not
the oil embargo and price quintupling have represent those of the Institute. Maria Maia
made the Hong Kong projections less than assisted ably with computations at Vander­
prophetic. It is our hope that this effort will bilt.
fare better. To Theodore W. Schultz and Vernon W.
The basic work in data collection and Ruttan I owe the intellectual stimulation of
estimation for the agriculture of China for their presence at the seminar this June
1952-77 was done at the University of when the revised version was presented. To
Michigan, where I visited two years ago. It Schultz and his penetrating insights, hoth at
builds on my earlier work for 1952 to 1965. the seminar and as set out with care in the
Many of the ideas expressed in this study on margins of the manuscript pages, I
the leadership of China during the transi- acknowledge a special debt-a very special
tion period of 1975-78 are distilled from the debt accumulated over the years by a
reflections and insights of my Michigan grateful recipient of his unfailing en­
(lays. These have benefited from the stimu- couragement and unstinting help.
lation of colleagues and students at the
Vc