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EUROPE
2030
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★
EUROPE
2030
DANIEL BENJAMIN
editor
brookings institution press
Washington, D.C.
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Copyright © 2010
THE BROOKINGS INSTITUTION
All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced or transmitted in
any form or by any means without permission in writing from the Brookings
Institution Press, 1775 Massachusetts Avenue, N.W., Washington, D.C. 20036,
202/536-3604, www.brookings.edu
Daniel Benjamin completed work on this book while at Brookings Institution and
before moving to a position with the U.S. Department of State. The book does not
represent the views of the State Department or the U.S. government.
Library of Congress Cataloging in Publication data
Europe 2030 / Daniel Benjamin, editor.
p. cm.
Includes index.
Summary: "Contributors, with insight and drawing on in-depth knowledge of
European affairs over the last forty years, describe the European Union's current
strengths and weaknesses and forecast its future development"--Provided by
publisher.
ISBN 978-0-8157-0280-1 (pbk. : alk. paper)
1. European Union--Forecasting. 2. European Union countries--Politics and gov-
ernment--21st century. I. Benjamin, Daniel, 1961- II. Title: Europe twenty-thirty.
III. Series.
JN30.E82482 2010
341.242'20112--dc22 2009052537
9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1
Printed on acid-free paper
Typeset in Sabon with Frutiger display
Composition by Peter Lindeman
Arlington, Virginia
Printed by R. R. Donnelley
Harrisonburg, Virginia
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Contents
Foreword vii
RUI CHANCERELLE DE MACHETE
Preface ix
JOSÉ MANUEL DURÃO BARROSO
1
Europe 2030: Global Power or Hamster on a Wheel? 1
JOSCHKA FISCHER
2
The Limits of the European Union in 2030: 11
A Best-Case Scenario
JOSÉ CUTILEIRO
3
The Accidental Constitution 23
JOSEPH H. H. WEILER
4
The European Economic Model in 2030 45
ANDREW HILTON
5
Europe as a Global Actor in 2030 63
CHARLES GRANT
6
Europe and the United States in 2030 87
HUBERT VÉDRINE
7
Russia in 2030: A More Attractive Partner for the EU? 99
OKSANA ANTONENKO
8
European Islam in the Year 1451 121
JONATHAN LAURENCE
Contributors 145
Index 147
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Foreword
HOW WILL THE European Union look twenty years from now?
It is practically impossible to give an answer. The purpose of this book
is more reasonable: to find out from its authors which are the main issues
at stake in 2030 Europe. The future cannot be described, however, since
the dominant factors necessarily will include normative perceptions. That
is why we have asked for essays and not forecasts.
For the smaller European countries, even more so than the larger
member states, the shape that Europe will take over the next couple of
decades and how it will arrive there are decisive. That explains how fun-
damental these kinds of exercises are for Portugal’s future, and explains,
too, the interest of the Luso- American Foundation in organizing and
sponsoring this initiative. I am very grateful to my friends Philip Gordon,
Daniel Benjamin, and José Cutileiro, and the support given by the Brook-
ings Institution. With their commitment, it was possible to gather some
of the most talented minds with expertise in European affairs and have
them try and imagine how Europe will be in the near future. The out-
come was not disappointing. On the contrary, the analyses made and the
insights offered were deep and provided considerable food for thought.
My reading of the contributions reinforced my conviction that the
European Union will remain a polity without a constitutional demos; a
vii
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viii FOREWORD
confederation of states that share part of their sovereignty powers. How-
ever, its responsiveness to external factors, economic and political, will
increase the confederation’s powers. Competition with the United States
and the threats and challenges posed by many parts of the rest of the
world will force Europe to respond, changing its structure and becoming
more federalist, in order to survive and play a critical role in international
affairs. This is what can be called the reactive model of progress in Euro-
pean integration.
The uncertainties are many, and we cannot neglect the positive and
negative influences of the internal factors. I dare say that had Gorbachev
arrived later, we might have seen even greater progress toward European
collaboration with its eastern partners. Other readers may conclude oth-
erwise, but that is the type of discussion that the chapters here are aim-
ing at and one that will help to serve European policymakers in the years
ahead.
Rui Chancerelle de Machete
Lisbon, Portugal
January 2010
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Preface
FIRST, I wish to congratulate the Fundação Luso- Americana para o
Desenvolvimento and the Brookings Institution for their support of such
an important initiative. And it is a great pleasure, with this preface, to
be included among such a distinguished company of authors.
Now, the question remains, how are we preparing the European
Union to face the challenges of the t wenty- first century? The future starts
today. The decisions we make now will determine the shape of the EU to
come.
A key point to keep in mind is the immense potential of the enlarged
European Union— twenty- seven member states and half a billion
people—s tretching from the Atlantic Ocean and the Mediterranean Sea
to the Baltic Sea. Enlargement has been a great success not only in terms
of European integration, but also in the context of European history. The
peaceful unification of the continent will certainly be seen as one of the
greatest achievements of our generation. Acting together, we can make
the European Union an impressive force in global politics.
In fifty years the EU has come a long way and is now playing a deci-
sive role in world affairs. Let me give a few examples. Today, it is lead-
ing both the global effort to combat the financial and the economic crises,
in the G-20 context, as well as the international fight against climate
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