Table Of ContentT
H
environment, and in wartime. He discusses the pitfalls of “Vaclav Smil’s work stands as a bright light in a sea of dim treatises on the subject of energy. E
forecasting, giving many examples of failed predictions His previous energy books are invaluable and insightful resources, filled with real facts and C E N E RG Y AT
R
and showing that unexpected events can disprove com- clear writing. Energy at the Crossroadscontinues and expands that tradition.” E
O
N ENERGY AT
plex models. And he examines the pros and cons not —MARK P. MILLS, PARTNER, DIGITAL POWER CAPITAL S
E T H E C ROS S ROA D S
S THE CROSSROADS
only of fossil fuels but also of alternative fuels such as RR
hydroenergy, biomass energy, wind power, and solar “An authoritative and comprehensive look at global energy prospects by one of the world’s OG
SAY GLOBAL PERSPECTIVES AND UNCERTAINTIES
power. Finally, he considers the future, focusing on what most respected energy scholars.” MD A GLOBAL PERSPECTIVES AND UNCERTAINTIES VACLAV SMIL VACLAV SMIL
really matters, what works, what is realistic, and which I
—CUTLER J. CLEVELAND, PROFESSOR AND DIRECTOR, CENTER FOR ENERGY AND LST
outcomes are most desirable. ENVIRONMENTAL STUDIES, BOSTON UNIVERSITY
In Energy at the Crossroads Vaclav Smil considers the
twenty-first century’s crucial question: how to reconcile
“A wealth of very useful information about energy use, resources, and environmental and
the modern world’s unceasing demand for energy with
socioeconomic impact, and the author’s unabashed but educated opinions about
the absolute necessity to preserve the integrity of the
approaches to the future. Thought-provoking and highly worthwhile reading for both
biosphere. With this book he offers a comprehensive,
believers and unbelievers.”
accessible guide to today’s complex energy issues—how
—PROFESSOR NOAM LIOR, EDITOR-IN-CHIEF, ENERGY—THE INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL
to think clearly and logically about what is possible and
what is desirable in our energy future.
“Smil has the best macroscope of all current energy analysts.”
After a century of unprecedented production
—JESSE H. AUSUBEL, DIRECTOR, PROGRAM FOR THE HUMAN ENVIRONMENT, THE
growth, technical innovation, and expanded consump-
ROCKEFELLER UNIVERSITY
tion, the world faces a number of critical energy chal-
lenges arising from unequal resource distribution,
“An excellent guide for the general reader or university student to complex energy and
changing demand patterns, and environmental limita-
environmental issues. Smil’s critical thinking, independence, and conscious attempts to
tions. The fundamental message of Energy at the
remain objective while clearly keeping in mind normative goals are, as always, refreshing.”
Crossroads is that our dependence on fossil fuels must
—JONATHAN E. SINTON, SCIENTIST, ENERGY ANALYSIS DEPARTMENT, LAWRENCE BERKELEY
be reduced not because of any imminent resource short-
NATIONAL LABORATORY
ages but because the widespread burning of oil, coal,
and natural gas damages the biosphere and presents
Vaclav Smil is Distinguished Professor at the University increasing economic and security problems as the world
of Manitoba. He is the author of eighteen books, includ- relies on more expensive supplies and on Middle
ing The Earth’s Biosphere: Evolution, Dynamics, and Eastern crude oil.
Change, Enriching the Earth: Fritz Haber, Carl Bosch, Smil begins with an overview of the twentieth
Jacket design by Derek George
and the Transformation of World Food Production, century’s long-term trends and achievements in energy
THE MIT PRESS
0–262–19492–9
Feeding the World: A Challenge for the Twenty-First Massachusetts Institute of Technology ,!7IA2G2-bjejcb!:t;K;k;K;k production. He then discusses energy prices, the real
Century, and Energies: An Illustrated Guide to the Cambridge, Massachusetts 02142 cost of energy, and “energy linkages”—the effect energy
Biosphere and Civilization. http://mitpress.mit.edu issues have on the economy, on quality of life, on the
Energy at the Crossroads
Also by Vaclav Smil
China’s Energy
Energy in the Developing World
Energy Analysis in Agriculture
Biomass Energies
The Bad Earth
Carbon-Nitrogen-Sulfur
Energy, Food, Environment
Energy in China’s Modernization
General Energetics
China’s Environmental Crisis
Global Ecology
Energy in World History
Cycles of Life
Energies
Feeding the World
Enriching the Earth
The Earth’s Biosphere
Energy at the Crossroads
Global Perspectives and Uncertainties
Vaclav Smil
The MIT Press
Cambridge, Massachusetts
London, England
2003MassachusettsInstituteofTechnology
Allrightsreserved.Nopartofthisbookmaybereproducedinanyformbyanyelectronicor
mechanicalmeans(includingphotocopying,recording,orinformationstorageandretrieval)
withoutpermission inwritingfrom thepublisher.
Thisbook wassetin SabonbyAchornGraphicServices,Inc.
Printedon recycledpaperandbound intheUnitedStatesofAmerica.
Library ofCongressCataloging-in-Publication Data
Smil,Vaclav.
Energyatthecrossroads:globalperspectivesanduncertainties/Vaclav Smil.
p.cm.
Includes bibliographicalreferencesandindex.
ISBN0-262-19492-9(hc.: alk.paper)
1.Energypolicy. 2.Energypolicy—UnitedStates. 3. Energypolicy—China. 4.Energy
policy—Environmental aspects. 5. Energydevelopment—Technologicalinnovations.
6. Globalization—Environmental aspects. 7. Powerresources—Politicalaspects—
History. 8.Petroleumindustryandtrade—Politicalaspects—History. 9.History,Modern.
I.Title.
HD9502.A2S543 2003
333.79—dc21
2002045222
10 987654321
Contents
Acknowledgments vii
Reflections on a Life of Energy Studies ix
1 Long-term Trends and Achievements 1
A Unique Century 3
Changing Resource Base 10
Technical Innovations 21
The Rising Importance of Electricity 31
Trading Energy 44
Consumption Trends 49
Looking Back and Looking Ahead 60
2 Energy Linkages 63
Energy and the Economy 65
Deconstructing Energy Intensities 71
Energy Prices 81
Real Costs of Energy 88
Energy and the Quality of Life 97
Energy and the Environment 105
Energy and War 116
3 Against Forecasting 121
Failing Endeavors 122
Conversion Techniques 124
Primary Energy Requirements 137
Demand for Electricity 145
Energy Prices and Intensities 149
vi Contents
Substitutions of Energy Resources 161
Complex Models and Realities 167
Unexpected Happenings 172
In Favor of Normative Scenarios 178
4 Fossil Fuel Futures 181
Is the Decline of Global Crude Oil Production Imminent? 184
Different Perspectives on the Oil Era 195
How Far Can Natural Gas Go? 213
What Will Be Coal’s Role? 229
5 Nonfossil Energies 239
Hydroenergy’s Potential and Limits 246
Biomass Energies 259
Electricity from Wind 272
Direct Solar Conversions 284
How Promising Are Other Renewables? 290
Infrastructural Changes and the Future Hydrogen Economy 296
Is There a Future for Nuclear Electricity? 309
6 Possible Futures 317
Efficient Use of Energy 318
Beyond Higher Efficiency 332
Energy and the Future of the Biosphere 339
What Really Matters 349
What Does, and Does Not, Help 354
Realities and a Wish List 362
Units and Abbreviations 375
Prefixes 377
Acronyms 379
References 383
Index 419
Acknowledgments
This is my fifth book with the MIT Press, a fitting occasion to thank three people
whoseeditorialeffortshaveseenthesevolumesfromtheirconceptiontotheirpubli-
cation:LarryCohen, DeborahCantor-Adams,and ClayMorgan. And,onceagain,
thankstoDouglasFastforpreparingorreproducingnearly140imagesthatillustrate
this book.
Reflections on a Life of Energy Studies
I have always believed that books should be written only for truly compelling rea-
sons.Sowhythisbook,andwhynow?Theobjectivereasonissimplytheimportance
ofitssubject.Energyconversionsarerequiredforeveryprocessinthebiosphereand
foreveryhumanaction,andourhigh-energy,predominantlyfossil-fueledcivilization
isutterlydependentonunceasingflowsoffuelsandelectricity.Frequentreexamina-
tionofthesefundamentalrealitiesisimperativeifwearetoavoidfatalblundersand
come closer to reconcilingour need for abundant and reliableenergy supplies with
the existential requirement of maintaining the integrity of irreplaceable biospheric
services.
ItisthesubjectivereasonforthebookthatIwanttodiscusshere—thebackground
that might help the reader understand my strong opinions. My goal in reviewing
my long energy journey is to convince the reader that I have done my professional
homeworkdiligentlyandthatmypropensitytodoubtandtojudge isnotbasedon
momentary whims or fashionable trends.
Imademydecisiontobeginsystematicenergystudies40yearsagowhileanunder-
graduateatPrague’sCarolinumUniversity.Nosuddenimpulseledtothisdecision—
merelyaslowlyaccumulatingconvictionthatusingfirstprinciplestounderstandthe
sources of energy, the techniques for harnessing these sources, and the enormous
consequencesoftheirconversionswouldhelpmeunderstandthefunctioningofthe
biosphere and the rise and growing complexity of human civilization. I have never
regrettedmydecisionbecauseithasgivenmeendlessopportunitiesfortrulyinterdis-
ciplinary research. I cannot imagine myself being engaged in any other form of in-
quiry, particularly not in any of those reductionist quests that are the hallmark of
somuchmodernscientificwork.Studiesofenergysystemsalsoallowedmetowork
onawiderangeofdisparateproblemsthatare,nevertheless,fundamentallyrelated.
