Empirical Studies and A Multiagent-based Model

336 Pages·2017·10.78 MB·English

by  Ransford Acheampong

UNDERSTANDING THE CO-EMERGENCE OF URBAN
LOCATION CHOICE AND MOBILITY PATTERNS

EMPIRICAL STUDIES AND AN INTEGRATED GEOSPATIAL
AND AGENT-BASED MODEL

Ransford Antwi Acheampong

Jesus College

Department of Land Economy
University of Cambridge

This dissertation is submitted
for the degree of Doctor of Philosophy

April 2017
AUTHOR DECLARATIONS

This dissertation is the result of my own work and includes nothing that is the outcome of work
done in collaboration except where specifically indicated in the text.

During the period of registered study in which this thesis was prepared, the author has not been
registered for any other academic award or qualification. The material included in this thesis has
not been submitted wholly or in part for any award or qualification other than that for which it is
now submitted.

This dissertation does not exceed the regulation length, including footnotes, references, and
appendices.

Ransford Antwi Acheampong
April 2017

I
ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS
I owe much gratitude to my supervisor, Dr. Elisabete A. Silva for introducing me to the field of
Urban Modelling and for spending time to review my work; I am grateful for all the feedback that
has gone into making this research a success.

I have benefited immensely from the opportunity to interact and share ideas with faculty members
and colleague researchers on various platforms during this journey. In particular, I wish to thank
all members of the Agent-based Modelling Group and the Geo-Information Science Forum, based
in the Department of Geography, Cambridge for providing a focal point to gain very useful
methodological insights for my research.

This PhD experience would not have been possible without financial support. I wish to express
sincere gratitude to the Cambridge Commonwealth, European and International Trust for
graciously providing substantial funding under the Cambridge International Scholarship Scheme
(CISS) to support successful completion of this research.

I had a great time at Jesus College. I would like to thank the college staff for providing a supportive
environment for all the period of residence there. All financial grants received from the college in
support of my studies is gratefully appreciated.

Finally, I would like to thank my office colleagues, Rosemary Ostfeld, Pawel Kransy and Goyllete
Chami for their support and encouragement, and fellow members of the Lab of Interdisciplinary
Spatial Analysis (LISA) at the Department of Land Economy, Felix Agyemang, Lun Liu, Chaowei
Xiao, Bingyu Zhao and Gerrard Cassey for their support in diverse ways.

II
To

My wife, Nana Adwoa Nyarko
What will I do without your unconditional support and encouragement?

III
Intentionally Left blank

IV
ABSTRACT
Understanding and simulating the relationship between urban land-use configuration and patterns
of human spatial interaction has been the subject of multi-disciplinary research. Conceptually, it
is recognized that the location decisions of several urban actors including individuals, households,
firms and public sector institutions, collectively determine the spatial distribution of land-use
activities; the emergent land-use patterns, in turn, provide the structural conditions within which
flows and interactions between locations occur daily and respond to each other over time. Over
the past six decades, various theories and concepts from urban economics, social-physics,
transportation studies, and the complexity sciences have underpinned empirical research and
development of state-of-the-art simulation models to explore the land-use and travel nexus.

Using a case study design and selecting the Kumasi Metropolis, a medium-size metropolis of
nearly two-million inhabitants in Ghana, West Africa as the case study area, two main objectives,
which reflect research trends and gaps in both the empirical literature and simulation model
development have been addressed in this thesis. The first objective was to examine empirically,
the location choice behaviour of households and individuals with respect to their residential and
job locations, and the mobility patterns associated with the observed home-work location
combinations within the metropolis. The second objective was to develop an integrated geospatial
and agent-based model to simulate how the residential and job location choice behaviour of
heterogeneous households and individuals co-emerge with mobility patterns in the metropolis.

The empirical studies presented in this thesis contributes to a deeper understanding of how
location-defining attributes at multiple spatial-scales interact with socio-demographic attributes of
heterogeneous households and individuals to determine their residential location choice, job
location choice and mobility characteristics. The development of the Metropolitan Location and
Mobility Patterns Simulator (METLOMP-SIM)—an integrated geospatial and agent-based model
also demonstrates how the encoded micro-scale behaviour of purposive households and
individuals, interacting with each other and their environment dynamically, could reproduce
macro-scale urban location patterns, property market price formation and evolution, and patterns
and attributes of spatial flows and interactions anchored on the population’s residential-job
location combinations.
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TABLE OF CONTENTS
ABSTRACT .................................................................................................................................. V
LIST OF TABLES ...................................................................................................................... XI
LIST OF FIGURES ................................................................................................................... XV
CHAPTER ONE: GENERAL INTRODUCTION .................................................................... 1
1.1 Background to research and motivation ........................................................................................ 1
1.2 Research objectives and questions .................................................................................................. 4
1.2.1 Empirical research objective and questions ................................................................................ 5
1.2.2 Simulation model development objective and questions ............................................................ 5
1.3 Overview of the research approach and methodology .................................................................. 6
1.3.1 The Case study approach and case study area ............................................................................. 6
1.3.2 Overview of the research methodology for empirical studies and model development.............. 7
1.4 Contribution and innovation ........................................................................................................... 8
1.5 Thesis structure and organization ................................................................................................. 10
CHAPTER TWO: LITERATURE REVIEW .......................................................................... 13
2.1 Introduction .................................................................................................................................... 13
2.2 Chapter organization ..................................................................................................................... 14
2.3 Understanding urban land use and transport nexus: concepts and theories ............................ 14
2.3.1 Aggregate urban economics and gravity-based entropy maximization theories ....................... 15
2.3.2 Random utility theory ................................................................................................................ 16
2.3.3 Theories of decision-making under uncertainty and bounded rationality ................................. 17
2.3.4 Time-geography theory ............................................................................................................. 18
2.3.5 General systems and complexity theories ................................................................................. 19
2.4 Empirical studies of the relationship between urban structure and mobility patterns............ 20
2.5 Modelling urban land use and travel demand: aggregate vs disaggregate modelling
approaches ............................................................................................................................................. 22
2.5.1 Aggregate urban economics and entropy-based gravity modelling approaches ....................... 23
2.5.2 Disaggregate utility-based econometric modelling approach ................................................... 23
2.5.3 Disaggregate micro-simulation modelling approaches ............................................................. 24
2.6 Overview of models of land use and travel demand .................................................................... 25
2.6.1 Land use models of urban location choice: Emphasis on disaggregate models ........................ 26
2.6.2 Travel demand models .............................................................................................................. 30
2.6.3 Integrated land use and transport models .................................................................................. 33
2.7 Discussion of research direction and gaps in the literature ........................................................ 37
2.7.1 A shift towards disaggregate modelling approaches ................................................................. 37
2.7.2. Understanding and modelling housing-job location choice decisions ..................................... 39
2.7.3. Integrating property market dynamics in disaggregate agent-based location choice models .. 40
2.7.4 Explicit simulation of job location choice in disaggregate models of residential location to
generate patterns of spatial interaction ............................................................................................... 42
VI
2.7.5 Expanding the geography of simulation model development and applications ........................ 43
2.8 Formulation of research objectives and questions....................................................................... 44
2.8.1 Empirical research objective and questions .............................................................................. 44
2.8.2 Simulation model development objective and questions .......................................................... 45
2.9 Chapter summary ........................................................................................................................... 46
CHAPTER THREE: RESEARCH METHODOLOGY FOR EMPIRICAL STUDIES—
CASE STUDY SELECTION, DATA COLLECTION AND ANALYSIS METHODS ....... 48
3.1 Introduction .................................................................................................................................... 48
3.2 Chapter organization ..................................................................................................................... 49
3.3 The case study approach and case study selection criteria ......................................................... 49
3.4 The Kumasi Metropolis in Ghana as case study area: Location, size and historical growth
patterns .................................................................................................................................................. 51
3.4.1 Location, size and historical growth patterns of the Kumasi Metropolis .................................. 51
3.5 Defining broad urban-zones in the Kumasi Metropolis .............................................................. 55
3.6 Survey design and data collection ................................................................................................. 58
3.6.1 Units of observation and analysis .............................................................................................. 58
3.6.2 Secondary data from institutions and agencies ......................................................................... 59
3.6.3 Primary data collection: Identification of study variables based on research questions ........... 61
3.6.4 Questionnaire design ................................................................................................................. 64
3.7 Conducting the household survey ................................................................................................. 66
3.7.1 Sampling technique ................................................................................................................... 67
3.7.2 Recruitment and training of field assistants .............................................................................. 70
3.7.3 Pilot interviews .......................................................................................................................... 70
3.7.4 Conducting the household interviews ....................................................................................... 71
3.8 Data processing, analysis themes and statistical methods ........................................................... 73
3.8.1 Principal component analysis (PCA) ........................................................................................ 76
3.8.2 Logistics regression model ........................................................................................................ 78
3.8.3 Multiple (Linear) regression model ........................................................................................... 79
3.9 Reporting results of survey data ................................................................................................... 80
3.10 Chapter Summary ........................................................................................................................ 81
CHAPTER FOUR: UNDERSTANDING RESIDENTIAL AND JOB LOCATION
PREFERENCES AND CHOICE INTERDEPENDENCE—AN EMPIRICAL ANALYSIS
....................................................................................................................................................... 82
4.1 Introduction .................................................................................................................................... 82
4.2 Overview of the data and statistical analysis methods ................................................................ 83
4.3 Chapter organization ..................................................................................................................... 85
4.4 Background socio-demographic characteristics of households .................................................. 85
4.5 Housing characteristics .................................................................................................................. 89
4.6 Analysis of residential location choice: An examination of macro and meso level choice
factors .................................................................................................................................................... 91
4.6.1 Residential location distributions in the urban zones ................................................................ 91
4.6.2 Extracting residential location choice factors: A principal axis factoring method .................... 92
4.7 Analysis of housing choice: an emphasis on preferences for attributes of dwellings ............... 97
VII
4.7.1 Examining preferences for housing types: a multinomial logistics regression ......................... 97
4.7.2 Examining housing tenancy choice: a multinomial logistics regression ................................. 100
4.7.3 Occupancy characteristics ....................................................................................................... 103
4.7.4 Rental levels and rent-to-income ratio .................................................................................... 104
4.8 Job market characteristics and employment location choice ................................................... 107
4.8.1 Employment location, work industry and skills of workers .................................................... 107
4.8.2 Spatial distribution of home-based and non-home based jobs ................................................ 109
4.8.3 Determinants of job location choice ........................................................................................ 110
4.9 Examining residential-job location choice interdependence .................................................... 113
4.10 Chapter summary ....................................................................................................................... 115
CHAPTER FIVE: HOME-WORK MOBILITY PATTERNS, TRANSPORT MODE
CHOICE AND TRAVEL COSTS—AN EMPIRICAL ANALYSIS.................................... 117
5.1 Introduction .................................................................................................................................. 117
5.2 Overview of the data and statistical analysis methods .............................................................. 118
5.3 Chapter organization ................................................................................................................... 119
5.4 Metropolitan functional structure and traffic analysis zone system ........................................ 119
5.4.1 Central Traffic Analysis Zones—Dominantly commercial activities ..................................... 122
5.4.2 Traffic Analysis Zones of residential activities with major industries .................................... 123
5.4.3 Dominantly residential Traffic Analysis Zones. ..................................................................... 123
5.5 Home-work trip production and attraction among traffic analysis zones .............................. 124
5.6 Travel mode preferences and choice considerations ................................................................. 128
5.6.1 Determinants of private car ownership and choice as work travel mode: a binomial logistic
regression model .............................................................................................................................. 133
5.6.2 Determinants of choice between walking and motorized transport as work travel mode: a
binomial logistic regression model................................................................................................... 136
5.6.3 A composite logistic regression model of work transport mode choice among non-private car
users .................................................................................................................................................. 138
5.7 Analysis of work commuting times and costs ............................................................................. 141
5.7.1 Commuting times to and from work ....................................................................................... 141
5.7.2 Analysis of work travel costs .................................................................................................. 145
5.8 Chapter summary ......................................................................................................................... 147
CHAPTER SIX: SPECIFICATION OF A METHODOLOGICAL FRAMEWORK TO
SIMULATE URBAN LOCATION CHOICE AND MOBILITY PATTERNS .................. 149
6.1 Introduction .................................................................................................................................. 149
6.2 Chapter organization ................................................................................................................... 150
6.3 Brief evaluation of urban modelling approaches ....................................................................... 150
6.3.1 Agent-based modelling as a disaggregate urban modelling paradigm .................................... 151
6.4 Specification of the conceptual model ......................................................................................... 153
6.4.1 Overview of the conceptual model .......................................................................................... 154
6.4.2 Design concepts underpinning the conceptual model ............................................................. 157
6.4.3 Overview of agents’ decision-making framework .................................................................. 159
6.5 Chapter summary ......................................................................................................................... 164
VIII
CHAPTER SEVEN: IMPLEMENTATION OF AN INTEGRATED GEOSPATIAL AND
AGENT-BASED MODEL OF URBAN LOCATION CHOICE AND MOBILITY
PATTERNS ............................................................................................................................... 166
7.1 Introduction .................................................................................................................................. 166
7.2 Chapter organization ................................................................................................................... 167
7.3 Model implementation platform and programming language ................................................. 168
7.4 Overview of model input data ..................................................................................................... 169
7.5 Initialization of METLOMP-SIM: Description of model sub-component implementation
processes and procedures ................................................................................................................... 171
7.5.1 The ‘Pre-start’ procedure ........................................................................................................ 172
7.5.2 Procedure to initialize spatio-environmental sub-component ................................................. 172
7.5.3 Procedure to initialize property market sub-component ......................................................... 178
7.5.4 Procedure to initializing job market sub-component............................................................... 183
7.5.5 Procedure to initialize socio-demographic sub-component .................................................... 186
7.6 Execution of METLOMP-SIM: Decision-making tasks, schedules and condition-action-rules
.............................................................................................................................................................. 189
7.6.1 Residential location choice procedure ..................................................................................... 191
7.6.2. Job location choice procedure ................................................................................................ 201
7.6.3. Travel choice procedure ......................................................................................................... 204
7.7 Chapter Summary ........................................................................................................................ 206
CHAPTER EIGHT: MODEL CALIBRATION EXPERIMENTS AND SIMULATION
RESULTS .................................................................................................................................. 207
8.1 Introduction .................................................................................................................................. 207
8.2 Model parameter estimation and calibration experiments ....................................................... 208
8.2.1 Setting initial parameter values and determining minimum model simulation repetitions ..... 208
8.2.2 Calibration method and parameter-sweeping experiments ..................................................... 214
8.3 Final model simulation and analysis of results .......................................................................... 220
8.3.1 Background Characteristics of simulated household population ............................................ 221
8.3.2 Simulated residential location patterns .................................................................................... 223
8.3.3 Households’ home locations proximity to amenities and infrastructure ................................. 235
8.3.4 Price evolution in the property market .................................................................................... 237
8.3.5 Simulated Job locations and home-work mobility patterns .................................................... 244
8.4 Chapter Summary ........................................................................................................................ 253
CHAPTER NINE: MODEL VERIFICATION AND VALIDATION ................................. 256
9.1 Introduction .................................................................................................................................. 256
9.2 Verification of METLOMP-SIM................................................................................................. 257
9.2.1 Documentation and communication of the model................................................................... 257
9.2.2 Programmatic verification and component testing of model sub-components ....................... 258
9.2.3 Verifying and modifying behavioural rules and heuristics ..................................................... 259
9.2.4 Sensitivity Analysis ................................................................................................................. 262
9.3 Validating METLOMP-SIM ....................................................................................................... 268
9.3.1 Preliminary validation of METLOMP-SIM ............................................................................ 268
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