Table Of ContentEconomic Slowdown in India
The devastating effect of Covid-19 on the Indian economy is by now
well-known. The growth rate of the economy slumped to a negative figure
in the year 2020–21. What is less talked about, however, is the fact that
growth slowdown in India had started several years before the pandemic
struck. The two questions that naturally arise are “what explains the long
economic slowdown?” and “what can be done about it?” This book is an
in-depth analysis of the economic slowdown in India in recent years and
the reasons behind the persistent slowdown in the growth rate of the Indian
economy in the 2010s, especially in the latter half of the decade. While
discussing both macro- and microeconomic policies, the volume examines
how the perspective on economic policy has evolved over time in consonance
with experience by investigating major instances of such slowdowns in
the past. Three global slowdowns (namely the Great Depression of 1929,
the stagflation induced by the oil crisis of the 1970s and the Global Financial
Crisis of 2007) and the industrial deceleration in India in the late 1960s and
early 1970s are discussed.
The author also probes into the problems of inequality, poverty, inflation
in the Indian economy pre- and post-pandemic and policies targeted towards
development, manufacturing and distribution of vaccines. The book further
discusses possible economic impacts of the Ukraine War and the long-term
problem of global warming.
Concise and thoroughly researched, this book will be of interest to
beginners, scholars, research students and teachers interested in economics,
policy-making and development studies.
Asis Kumar Banerjee, Ph.D. (Johns Hopkins), is a former vice-chancellor
and a former professor of economics, University of Calcutta. He has held
visiting positions at Presidency College, Calcutta; the Indian Statistical
Institute, New Delhi; and the University of California, Riverside, California.
His research interests include development economics, welfare economics,
game theory and the measurement of inequality and poverty. His previous
publications include the book Measuring Development: An Inequality
Dominance Approach (2020).
Economic Slowdown in India
An Introductory Analysis
Asis Kumar Banerjee
First published 2023
by Routledge
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© 2023 Asis Kumar Banerjee
The right of Asis Kumar Banerjee to be identified as author of this
work has been asserted in accordance with sections 77 and 78 of the
Copyright, Designs and Patents Act 1988.
All rights reserved. No part of this book may be reprinted or
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or registered trademarks, and are used only for identification and
explanation without intent to infringe.
British Library Cataloguing-in-Publication Data
A catalogue record for this book is available from the British Library
ISBN: 978-1-032-39124-3 (hbk)
ISBN: 978-1-032-39602-6 (pbk)
ISBN: 978-1-003-35051-4 (ebk)
DOI: 10.4324/9781003350514
Typeset in Sabon
by Apex CoVantage, LLC
To
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Contents
List of Tables viii
List of Abbreviations x
Preface xii
1 Introduction 1
2 Major economic slowdowns of the past and the
evolution of economic policies 12
3 Recent trends in economic growth: India and the world 41
4 What caused the slowdown? 52
5 Arresting the slowdown: the policy issues 74
6 Economic policies and pandemics: the case of Covid-19 104
7 Where will the money come from? 132
8 Afterword: Headwinds and prognosis 161
Index 177
Tables
1.1 Annual real GDP growth rates (per cent) in South Asian
countries, 2020–21 4
3.1 Annual real GDP growth rates, 2001–20: India and the world 42
3.2 Annual real GDP growth rates in Bangladesh, Pakistan and
India, 2011–12 to 2020–21 47
4.1 Annual GDP growth rate (per cent) and GFCF as
percentage of GDP in selected countries, 2019 53
4.2 Private, public and total GFCF as percentages of GDP and
the rate of growth of GDP in India, 2011–12 to 2019–20 54
4.3 Income inequality in India: percentage shares of population
groups in total income in 2001, 2012 and 2019 60
4.4 Wealth inequality in India: percentage shares of population
groups in total household wealth in 2001, 2012, 2019
and 2021 61
4.5 Annual growth rates (per cent) of India’s exports of goods
and services, 2001–02 to 2020–21 66
5.1 Monthly CPI inflation rates in India, April 2017 to May 2022 79
5.2 Annual CPI inflation rates in India, 2012–13 to 2021–22 80
5.3 Monthly headline and exclusion-based CPI inflation rates in
India in some recent months (year-on-year, per cent) 88
5.4 Monthly CPI inflation rates (per cent) for selected groups
vis-à-vis headline CPI inflation rates in India in the last four
months of 2021 89
8.1 Annual GDP growth rate (per cent) forecasts by the World
Bank: India, Bangladesh, Pakistan, the world economy and
the AEs 163
8.2 Annual GDP growth rate (per cent) forecasts by the IMF:
India, the low-income developing economies, the world
economy and the AEs 164
8.3 Annual GDP growth rate (per cent) forecasts by the OECD:
India, the world economy, the G20 and the OECD countries 164
Tables ix
8.4 Benefits of two countries for different combinations of their
strategic choices regarding sharing the costs of reducing
global warming: an example 171
8.5 Prisoner’s Dilemma: punishments of the two prisoners for
different combinations of their strategic choices 173
