DTIC ADA544003: Balancing Rated Personnel Requirements and Inventories

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Balancing Rated Personnel Requirements and Inventories
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Balancing Rated
Personnel Requirements
and Inventories
James H. Bigelow, Albert A. Robbert
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Bigelow, J. H.
Balancing rated personnel requirements and inventories / James H. Bigelow, Albert A. Robbert.
p. cm.
Includes bibliographical references.
ISBN 978-0-8330-5094-6 (pbk. : alk. paper)
1. United States. Air Force—Officers—Rating of. 2. United States. Air Force—Officers—Supply and demand.
3. Air pilots, Military—Rating of—United States. 4. Air pilots, Military—Supply and demand—United States.
5. United States. Air Force—Personnel management. I. Robbert, Albert A., 1944- II. Title.
UG793.B54 2011
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2011012225
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Preface
This report documents RAND Corporation research on policies to bring requirements for
rated personnel into balance with inventories and subsequently to maintain them in balance.
For at least a decade, the Air Force has attempted to achieve this balance by producing and
absorbing rated personnel as fast as possible. However, shortages have persisted and have even
grown, so the Air Force has shifted emphasis to reducing the requirements for rated personnel.
The project that produced this report is one of a series of Rated Force Management stud-
ies cosponsored by the Air Force Deputy Chief of Staff for Air, Space, and Information Opera-
tions, Plans and Requirements (AF/A3/5), and the Deputy Chief of Staff for Manpower and
Personnel (AF/A1). The study was conducted within the Manpower, Personnel, and Training
Program of RAND Project AIR FORCE.
Related work is reported in the following publications:
• Fighter Drawdown Dynamics: Effects on Aircrew Inventories, William W. Taylor, James H.
Bigelow, and John A. Ausink (MG-855-AF).
• Absorbing Air Force Fighter Pilots: Parameters, Problems, and Policy Options, William W.
Taylor, James H. Bigelow, S. Craig Moore, Leslie Wickman, Brent Thomas, and Richard
S. Marken (MR-1550-AF).
This report is intended to assist senior Air Force policymakers in developing policies that
will maintain a balance between requirements for and inventory of rated personnel. The reader
is assumed to be familiar with the Air Force and, in particular, with aircrew management.
RAND Project AIR FORCE
RAND Project AIR FORCE (PAF), a division of the RAND Corporation, is the U.S. Air
Force’s federally funded research and development center for studies and analyses. PAF pro-
vides the Air Force with independent analyses of policy alternatives affecting the development,
employment, combat readiness, and support of current and future aerospace forces. Research
is conducted in four programs: Force Modernization and Employment; Manpower, Personnel,
and Training; Resource Management; and Strategy and Doctrine.
Additional information about PAF is available on our website:
http://www.rand.org/paf/
iii

Contents
Preface ........................................................................................................... iii
Figures and Tables .............................................................................................vii
Summary ........................................................................................................ ix
Acknowledgments ............................................................................................xiii
Abbreviations ...................................................................................................xv
CHAPTER ONE
Introduction ..................................................................................................... 1
Impacts of Rated Shortages ..................................................................................... 5
The Rated Staff Requirements Integrated process team ..................................................... 6
CHAPTER TWO
Elements of an Enduring Process for Maintaining the Balance ....................................... 9
Institutionalizing and Regularizing the Recategorization Option ......................................... 9
Modification of the Annual Rated Requirements Review ...............................................10
Ranking Rated Staff and Test Positions ....................................................................11
Potential Risk ..................................................................................................12
Making the Conversion Process More Responsive ..........................................................13
Conversion to Civil Service or Contractor .................................................................13
Conversion to NonRated Active Military ..................................................................13
Conversion to Air National Guard or Air Force Reserve ................................................14
Planning for Effects of Major Actions on Rated Requirements ...........................................15
Actions with Longer-Term Effects.............................................................................16
Creation of a New Career Field .............................................................................16
Redesign of Rated Positions .................................................................................17
Developing and Maintaining Some Spare Production and Absorption Capacity .......................18
Benefits of Spare Capacity ...................................................................................19
Developing Spare Capacity ..................................................................................19
Monitoring Spare Capacity ................................................................................. 20
CHAPTER THREE
Responsibilities and Enforcement ..........................................................................21
Responsibilities ..................................................................................................21
The Enforcement Mechanism .................................................................................21
Bibliography ....................................................................................................25
v

Figures and Tables
Figures
1.1. April 2007 Projections: No Overall Rated Officer Shortage .................................. 2
1.2. April 2007 Projections: Growing Shortage of Fighter Pilots .................................. 3
1.3. Comparison of Recent Red Lines and Blue Lines .............................................. 4
1.4. Recent Fighter Pilot Red Lines and Blue Lines ................................................. 4
2.1. Notional Evolution of the UAS Operator Career Field .......................................17
2.2. Size Distribution of Offices with Rated Staff Positions .......................................18
3.1. An Enduring Process for Reconciling Rated Officer Inventory and Requirements ...... 22
Tables
1.1. Categories of Rated Officers as of FY 2009 ..................................................... 2
1.2. Rated Requirements by Class as of FY 2008 .................................................... 6
vii