Table Of Contentsnoitalum irSetupm ogCni ssUesehtop ygHnitaren enGO
••
neelhtaK .M yelraC
secnei cnSoisic edD nlaaic o fStonemtrapeD
dna
tnemegan adM nyacil o fPloooh cIS IzInieH.J.H
eigenraC ytisrevin UnolleM
3,A 1hSA2gUP5r1ubsttiP
412-268-3225
[email protected]
tcartsbA
lanoit astluepdmoomC fo xelp m,oscmetsys hcus sa ,smaet ksat ,secrof sdnnoaitazin angarcoeb
desu ot nosaer tuoba eht roivaheb fo esoht smetsys rednu esre v.isdnoitidnoc ehT egralrebmun
fo detargetni sessecorp dna ,selb adinraav eht-non t nsseeer isegntshniienirc iyaoelerhrnpteidlnu
ekam t itluciff irdof ,dsentasmiushsa ny,ub srneotiutpa ml youolcmteiv sintocseafe frteuobaeht
secneuqesnoc fo yna eno .noitca retup mnooCitalum issemoceb na tnatropmi loot rofgnitareneg
.dle idf nba ael h ntdiets e etnbe hnt atca hstmets yesse h ftrooivah eeb httuo bsaesehtopyh
1. Introduction and Motivation
ehT esu fo la msreoufqinhcet ni ,lareneg ldannao istiastyulpamnoac n i,ralucitra psi gniyalpna
ylgnisae rtcnnaitropmi elor ni eht tnempoleved fo seiroeht fo xelpmoc smetsys hcus sa,spuorg
,smaet ,snoitazinagro dna rieht dnammoc dna lortnoc .serutcetihcra enO nosaer rof siht sieht
gniworg noitingocer taht eht gniylrednu sessecorp era ,xelpmoc ,cimanyd ,evitpada dna-non
,raeni ltaht puorg ro ma ertoi vsaehger besm nemooi rtnfciahrteitwn idna neewteb eht stnegadna
seititne taht esirpmoc eht tinu eht( ,elpoep ,spuorg-bus ,seigolonhcet ,).cte dna taht eht
spihsnoitaler gnoma eseht seititne era niartsnoc dna elbane laudividni dna tinu level.noitca
rehtonA nosaer rof eht tnemevom ot lanoitatupmoc sehcaorppa si eht noitingocer tahtstinu
desopmoc fo elpitlum elpoep era yltner elhannioitatupmoc ecnis yeht evah a deen ot nacsdna
rie hhtt id wnsarebm egmno meatacinumm o,csmargo rd pnsatc aefro t,stnemnoriv nreie hetvresbo
g nn ionki o[asd imienytctabaea mm dmrurmoohor tfo,unf taisdnnneaamrntorivne ,hgnioltarBuB
dna lebO , .]0991 nI ,lareneg eht mia fo siht lanoitatupmoc hcraeser si ot dliub wen,stpecnoc
,seiroeht dna egdelwo ntkuoba xelpm oscmetsys hcus sa ,spuor g,smaet ro dnammoc dnalortnoc
lanoitatu p e mefegh fosohnge ocutaudaroi rw, htg t e n d,nmmiss neaieii.abcabhsTerutcetihcra
,d , nesnlos loaiageictbndtia-ioarlrdmreueu emmtldmuiuc nunspnnanmioeoict aslluemdeomtaht
.sesseco rgpniylred ne u hnstoucof
nnoiitalu mdiessab-retup m efo dsocenuua l eathvut oeb daganm i eesrbmai arfleocb meugn rAal
.r a sr ls eas utl sl emec sensc npisinodieilipaetimoctaalhrlmorncTaaraoppit alt audrpnemanoecg
. eynrielvpe iecnsOid fo ethste gsnmoiratlsc si t nadoheitsta abhl- curnumeasitcsupmo cebdesu
rof yroeht tnempoleved dna sisehtopyh .noitareneg ,elpmiS tub raenil-non ,sessecorp netfo
•
s dikehrtT orsnwo aiptwprua spyb e se d c,e hheyi)ttt ctvf Ranfria flNtaoanN.OaOSreUov(GsNaeNR .7300-1-79-41000N
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1. REPORT DATE 3. DATES COVERED
1999 2. REPORT TYPE 00-00-1999 to 00-00-1999
4. TITLE AND SUBTITLE 5a. CONTRACT NUMBER
On Generating Hypotheses Using Computer Simulations
5b. GRANT NUMBER
5c. PROGRAM ELEMENT NUMBER
6. AUTHOR(S) 5d. PROJECT NUMBER
5e. TASK NUMBER
5f. WORK UNIT NUMBER
7. PERFORMING ORGANIZATION NAME(S) AND ADDRESS(ES) 8. PERFORMING ORGANIZATION
Carnegie Mellon University,H.J. Heinz III School of Policy and REPORT NUMBER
Managment,Pittsburgh,PA,15213
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Approved for public release; distribution unlimited
13. SUPPLEMENTARY NOTES
1999 Command and Control Research and Technology Symposium (CCRTS)
14. ABSTRACT
15. SUBJECT TERMS
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Prescribed by ANSI Std Z39-18
ytili bganisaerc ee d hsytitiraenil- n hoacn ufesolpm a. xrneoAivah epbuo rd gnmaa ee thetilrednu
fo a wen eceip fo noitamrofni ot retla na stnega noinipo sa eht tnega sni a.gecneirepxe sAeht
tnega steg erom dna n oeirtoa mmt rasohmftrniifno c yalsuo idvleerh p,aed in oyintaamtraohftni
- nh oc.nudSetnuoc syildgnisa e sr tmcsirniiifnocsid seitiraenil ek almai vtii rott- nkohnngiuhotrht
ylraluc ie, ts ssrn ,fp maodnoudappnoonesairatetgra t,pg a n sdsisea untp f orlyfoeiautohrestalevr
ni gnignahc .stnemnorivne lanoitatupmoC sisylana selbane eht tsiroeht ot kniht hguorhteht
elbissop snoitacifimar fo hcus raenil-non sessecorp dna ot poleved a seires fo tnetsisnoc
.snoitciderp esehT snoitciderp era eht sesehtopyh taht nac neht eb detset ni namuhyrotarobal
stnemirepxe ro ni evil .snoitalumis ,suhT desab-ret unpomiotcalumis sledom nac ,eb dnaevah
,neeb desu ni a evitamron noihsaf ot etareneg a seires fo sesehtopyh yb gninnur lautriv
.stnemirepxe
2. stnemirep xlEautr iV
gninn u y rsbsiled olmanoitatupm omco rsfesehtop yghnitaren e fgsoy aewvitcef ftes oem h fteonO
.tne mt inl r eaa etmu spnitlixe rr aemA ei nuihpvnitrcxar eieieph vhxwatet ard ohf clalee cnieht
latnemirepxe ngised si detareneg yb gninnur a retupmoc noitalumis .ledom nI gnitarenegsiht
,tnemirepxe dradnats selpicnirp fo doog latnemirepxe ngised dluohs eb .dewollof ehTstluser
dluohs neht eb . ydlelzaycliatnsaita ts ehT stluser fo taht sisylana era eh tsesehtop ythaht naceb
,rsoeid udtl se,isfe m,asgnoitalu me iv,sisltnemire pyxreotaro bnaa lmm uoa hrtgfan didseunimaxe
lavihcra .secruos nI gnitcudnoc a lautriv tnemirepxe dna gnitareneg a seires fo sesehtopyheht
sgniwollof segats era enog .hguorht egatS .1 yfitnedI eroc .selbairav egatS .2 erolpxEeht
.tnemire plxaeut rsninivoita l eu.. gm4s naieutslRSbai rearvoc- n toe.eng3S a.teSc arpestemarap
egatS .5 yllacitsitatS ezylana .stluser oT etartsnomed eht eulav fo siht hcaorppa aralucitrap
.sega tesse h fthoc aeetartsul l oidte s sudi ndaebircs e sdtinemirep xleautr ievvitartsulli
2.1 evitar tlsauultltrInieVmirepxE
oT etartsulli woh a lautriv tnemirepxe si enod dna sesehtopyh ,detareneg a cificepslautriv
DAE[H Ag G ntRsninOausewrumirepxe yden la;r 8ay9Ce9 l1;raa 6C,9y9e1lraC ,adobovS;6991
yelraC dna ,eeL .]8991 DAEHAGRO setartsulli lareves stcepsa fo lanoitatupmocssecorp
:sledom
1. DAEHAGRO sah neeb tliub ni a gnidliub kcolb noihsaf yb gnidda no ot a esab,ledom
lanoitidda lanoitatupmoc ssecorp .seludom sihT gnidliub kcolb hcaorppa si eno fo eht
t sseeghncoarotrsp pr aolf agnnoii dtslaliteuudbpommoc sa ti selbane eht rengised otetadilav
.stlus eertaidemret neitaren eod gtndaepolev estsldiiaed oemht
2. lanoi tsasteucpom rospCeludo mdluohs evah eca f.ytidilav ,DAEHAGRO sahdetartsnomed
.erutcetihc rlaev etli n fusotcep sear oec hsterutp adc nyatidil a fvloev esliht
3. , Dls A as,EsenelHekoceAli iodGble str oRagyrapsmOnunetnehabuomp iumftnoocnciiderp
.sae realpitlum
4. .elbats esltied osmseco rlpanoitatupm odco oy gneak i,lDAEHAGRO
DAEHAGRO si a desab-retupmoc noitalumis ledom rof gninosaer tuoba lanoitazinagro
.ecnamrofrep ecnamrofreP rof stinu htiw tnereffid dnammoc dna lortnoc serutcetihcra dna
dsneaale dts oiilmnaunoitazina g errfheoo tb .mhde cematEcid essrtipnemnori vkn setantereffid
neirutcetihc rI a3e Chetgna hn carcednamm oe chDtAEHAG Rn.OInra eoylttili be ahhtt itwnega
esnopser ot suoirav lanretxe dna lanretni .sreggirt hcaE DAEHAGRO tnega yam eb rehtiea
,nosre p ,apuorg bruos .amroftal p stne g y Aelylrdlaaelnd aondri unutdoatanbcraurt sostibihxe
detimil ,noitnetta ,yromem noitamrofni gnissecorp ,ytilibapac dna ssecca ot .noitamrofni ehT
.sks astseco rype hsstanoit csa'tne ge a hydtbenimret estdii ne u hfetocnamrofrep
DAEHAGRO sah neeb desu ot ekam snoitciderp tuoba ,gniniart ,gninrael eht ytiligarf fo
lanoitazinagro ,sseccus eht epyt fo tnegreme ,mrof eht evitaler eulav fo tlnaenroeiftfaizdinagro
,smrof .cte enO fo eht gni tssneoriettcniider pmorf DAEHAGRO si t ashntoitazinag rnoacedart
laudividni ecneirepxe ro gninrael rof larutcurts .gninrael rehtonA gnidnif si ,taht elihwlla
lufsseccus lanoitazinagro smrof era ,ralimis rieht tseraen robhgien yam eb a yletelpmoc
lufsseccus n.umrof suhT llams segnahc ni n as'noitaz idnnaagmrmooc dna lor,tenrouctcetihcra
erutcur tss'puo rnasgiegna hlclams .gnitats a, v neeabdc
3. A degatS hcaorppA ot sisehtopyHnoitareneG
s eesgrgaanti sws oegels nhlesit ohet aftiatf orrnodpeeenysnmah ei ggrlneaip utxatce runidIvnoc
enog .hguorht egatS .1 yfitnedI eroc .selbairav egatS .2 erolpxE eht retemarap .ecaps egatS.3
teS eroc-non .selbairav egatS .4 nuR snoitalumis ni lautriv .tnemirepxe egatS .5yllacitsitatS
ezylana .stluser oT etartsnomed eht eulav fo siht hcaorppa a ralucitrap evitartsullilautriv
.sega tesse hfhtoc aeetartsul lodite ssdu indaebircs estdinemirepxe
3.1 Stage 1
nigeB yb gniyfitned ieroc .selbairav eroC selbairav era eht sretemarap ro selbairav fo.nrecnoc
edoehetbtzisehto p eyhrhca ishewlu dloem dsrorometema r eadehplbtu osheslbai rea rveoscehT
. tesle b r fat etoin e tsregl tnoad n psnnimvneifmeAa ehto anveptcnxoele eielbd afeaefriraroacv
.ytixelpmo cksa ts iDAEHAGR Oni
3.2 Stage 2
lrleitwem a hrsrcaeoa pufehl caei v n hd diuweoefoetieynfdit n ne eedsveirabehtem aeerchantpO
eb .derolpxe ehT eciohc dluohs tcelfer snrecnoc htiw eseht ,sretemarap dna snoitatcepxe saot
, lo.awr rtoneiIn ve lagmeh evettebnsleyrs etf cfrlei elfdstif e ewetuf mnloeaeahrrvta epefrfeihdw
ro erom seulav dluohs eb nesohc rof hcae .retemarap roF ,elpmaxe rof eht retemarapksat
ytixelpmoc ew t hgegn siisom teo,cuh welcmolaulfviedr e dm.nyat ihxgeilh pgmnoicsoeohhtC
sr e dt. nets amneseaenehr m iutat il flp nraaeadeeudv em pt esiexrdrurheieeeTvb hpisxnrieicsed
.snoitidn olcatnemirep xtenereff i2d 1d5le isyretemar a fpsonoitair aevse h .Te1lbaT
3.3 Stage 3
dsleu loen bhbo easNtrieorsc aov t,d meeox bditnfaar a , sdd iellrrsdu eooyeoevflehheanstlna
eb tes ot hctam snoitidnoc nwonk ot eb eurt fo namuh .spuorg roF ,elpmaxeDAEHAGRO
selb aenhet resu ot kool ta st iensuo heswzeig snrae hv.coemit , ,rnteInve eezsmwiiioshrhtepxe
.dexi fsi
3.4 Stage 4
tA siht tn isonpoitalumi snac eb .nur roF hca e,noitidno chcae llec ni eht elb agtnibircsedruoy
.s tfnIem eclietsahc o etersra eehstu a .cssse iinbhoTitalu meilspit l nudumlru o uh,ostynemirepxe
uoy eva hcit s liaendiommr eutoeyd nur nhocia te.iedcnnooc sn oeiste ahelTruami sruloayutriv
.tnemir epxe ,reolFp mraoxfe t n e elhd mateti ubsrnt iueorhrjpiiccxtvasd eieeesddtanawolcumis
0.4semit ln aIdr ee etnsr haeneatrgobie imvntt uenafn gev o lmrlalieairsuwebt porexibevhcum
regral naht taht detareneg aiv a nam uyhr o,ttanreombiarlepxe ro ni a gnimag ro evilnoitalumis
.noitautis roF ,elpmaxe eht lautriv tnemirepxe debircsed detluser ni 08402 atad snoitavresbota
.em i nttini ohpcae
retemaraP seirogetaC
timi lksaT 000,02 dna000,08
ytixelpmo cksaT dn ayranib yranirt
noitamrof nkisaT d7n9a
ytilib atnegA d5n7a
Stressors cidoir edp nealbatS
ez itSinU 9, 12, 18, and 36
spu-ekahS ,1 ,2 3 dna4
elbaT :1 yrammuS fsoretemaraP
3.5 Stage 5
desab-retupmoC noitalumis sledom etareneg erom atad naht namuh yrotarobal.stnemirepxe
sselehtreveN eht stluser dluohs llits eb yllaci t.sdietzaytlsana ecniS ereht si os hcum ,atad tisi
eslnb oinise t sveoatoiltrcp gpou.i ldttapnn l xoeeulecmlmaigurn teirpsixve ,reolFp mraoxfeeht
lautriv tnemirepxe tsuj debircsed tsrif eht tcapmi fo noitatpada-atem seigetarts noecnamrofrep
ftocap mei hnte hdtenima xseaw .de n e isrsme uaain twxgoe ceehIu tt3rnaCtorsittsatpada-atem
roF eht tsri f,sisyl asntalus eertacidni ,taht ni redro fo ,tcapmi eht ruof srotcaf hcihw tsomtceffa
den ieactnsaumsrofre p:era eht rebmun fo secru oeslebraliava ot hcae ,tnega eht ezis fo eht,tinu
froebm ue nhd tn,aks ae th)tht idwetaicos ssaecruos ed rnnnaioitamrof nftionuom afh(otgn eelht
.e2lb a nTdieziramm ues rsatlus eers e. hsTpu-ekahs
rloaFn o eie z thse igdsatitgsnntz saniol idyciscutnn lisaesaaaeadaesehghnnerrtrtaircocnknisiat
ytixelpm omcorf 7 ot 9 ,stib secuder eht rebmun s tfnoemngi soshaw-(er stroper ot )mohwedam
rs e eebfshmo-atue enrdrncani sg noihkws(a ts ign i to.ad)hkwsat e htTs rtirfap fo gsniihdtnsiif
etiuq .evitiutni-non fI ereht era erom ,elpoep neht eht ytilibaborp fo a tnemngissa-erdluohs
.esaercni ,revewoH ew dnif siht rebmu nsesaer cgendiylpmi taht stinu era gnitpada ybgnitaerc
erom tcerid segaknil neewteb lennosrep dna ksat suht gnicuder eht seitixelpmoc thguorb noyb
.n oliatnaociitnauzm imnoacgro-re tsnAi a edis tluser eht tnuoma fnooitamro fdnnia ehtrebmun
.sesaerc nliaudivid nei nyo n oaetlbalia vsaecruos efro
Predictor tneiciffeoC eula vp
tpecretni 0.000000 1.000
timi lksaT 0.031853 0.000
ytixelpmo cksaT -0.024068 0.000
latnemnorivnE -0.014568 0.027
stressors
ezi stinU 0.170226 0.000
ytilib atnegA 0.265205 0.000
noitamrof nkisaT 0.091118 0.000
spu-ekahS -0.012299 0.063
R 2 ( )jda = ,%9.01 fd = ,7 ,27402100.0<p
Table 2. Standardized Regression for Performance.
4. sese hg tnho icp yta y lraoHoaarrtnmep o mnp-ieueAtuSGal tafuVopmoC
desab- rneotiutpamlouCmis si a elbaula veuqinhcet rof gnita r.esneesgehtopyh sA ehtsuoiverp
s tn llgna uiotnss inie eater fdtam toaci,dadir sohleneotppatgdpxcae aerz etynbslouailnslasiucsid
ot etareneg a ediw rebmun fo sesehtopyh lla fo hcihw era tnetsisnoc htiw ehtgniylrednu
g .snlswiaeolns leosteldieshaot cytmaoltr aupeonpntamiomCa x ae rreegsbrrmae ultfneomarap
dna ot enimax eseulav ro sessecor ptaht yam eb elbissopmi ot enimaxe ni eht namyurhotarobal
e u l.dsasl n ne o oyoddtei lioerttltmt aasaain toeruo oucde siltpidrtami oacoseniCnhihotmtcaexe
fo cimanyd smetsys dna ot gnitseggus eht gnol mret stcapmi fo wen .seigolonhcetrehtonA
na hetz inrsiegr ar lasfpuo rfsgoisyla nneaalba nyee htta hsstiisyla nlaanoitatupm ofecogatnavda
nac eb dezylana ni a dleif .gnittes sA ,hcus snoitalumis era ni ecnesse sloot rof gniodyroeht
.tn elmapnoolietvaetdu psmsoeCcorp sledom era ,ton ,revewoh a .aecanap erehT erasnoitatimil
ot rieht ssenlufesu dna ereht era snoitidnoc erehw yeht era erom lufesu naht srehto . A
egatnavdasid si taht hcus sledom tonnac eb desu ot ylev iestualrctnsoncomed tahw elpoep odni
.snoitaut ilsevon
: elruaf ets su eosrmlae dsosmec olrapnoitatup meorc eshaw eerhaT
1. .selbaira vf orebmu negra lasevlovn inoitpircse delpmi sanev etah txelpmo co ss imetsy sehT
2. -tnnoant r eoerpremahiT .sesseco rep h ntsieitiraenil
3. .sya welpitlu mn itcaretn iselbaira vehT
4. .selbair aevr o rmeoer hgtnivlov nsinoitcaret nxielpm oec rearehT
5. ehT .metsy seh tf oscimany deh tn is itseretn istsylana
6. .lennos r ne3ap hetr ofdmoesopm osdcienima xgeni epbuo rrmgoa eethT
7. degag n sedienima xgeni epbuo r rgmoa eethT .sks aetvisnet neigdelwo nnaki
yllacirotsiH ti saw elbissop ot tset lanoitatupmoc ssecorp sledom yb gniod aevisneherpmoc
sisylana fo eht tcapmi fo lla .sretemarap tnerruC ssecorp sledom era yltneicif fxueslpmocdna
lacidirev taht a etelpmoc ytivitisnes sisylana ssorca lla sretemarap tonnac eb ;enod,rehtar
srehcraeser netfo esu esnopser ecafrus gnippamseuqinhcet , latn esmnigriespexde dlnaacitsitats
seuqinhcet ot enimaxe yek stcepsa fo eht .sledom enO fo eht yek saera fo hcraeser si wohot
.sled oxmelpm oyclhg iehse htts edt neatadilav
enO euqinhcet rof noitadilav si seseh tnoopiythadilav ees( osla[ ,yelraCb6991 ; ,yelraC aluteirP
dna ,niL .)]8991 ecnO eht sesehtopyh evah neeb ,detareneg yeht nac neht eb detset nisuoirav
.s g eneniuOts tssei istah wot od fi eht ses e .hsdtieo tptayod hni le ar sve lnheaotTrrsaaeahveters
siht thgim .rucco tsoM ,ylbaton eht ledom yam eb gnorw ro eht atad yam evah neebdetcelloc
. ln sea nsenedhiuhohothtitmTti dtnnoecr es ferfroiud staneemre fgf nigidnsi u tmnto aeramsfuh
.d l elr rsaofeiuwIh tt ldrneanieheav etre w rsht eei ce erhatb p kdkutates cnasmstioeamrsthicf
.dedrac sdrieodtsu jsoeddtba e degnnna olsreiw d eonhm ethhct taam
secnerefeR
[ , hngoitlrauBB & lebO , 1990] H. H. ,hgilaB R.M.Burton and lebO.B ,g.n itsrsiemvpeextDesys
ni noitazinagro :yroeht ehT lanoitazinagro .tnatlusnoc nI .M ,hcusaM ,rotide ,noitazinagrO
,tnemega ndanMa trepxsEmetsyS r .,es7te 5lge-aaD5Wp3 .0 9,9n1il r,erBetyurG
,yelraC[ ]a6991 neelhtaK .M ,yel resavnCiotiptaadzAi"nagrO : A nosirapmoC fo seigetartSrof
gniveihcA lamitpO "ecnamrofreP ni sgnideecorP fo eht 6991 lanoitanretnI muisopmySno
. ygolonhc ehd Tcnraaes elRortn od CndanammoC .enuJ ,yarre t,nAoCM.6991
,yelraC[ ]b6991 neelhtaK .M ,yelraC A" nosirapmoC fo laicifitrA dna "n.asmnuoHitazinagrO
lanruoJ fo cimonocE roivaheB dnanoitazinagrO ., 31: 175-191, 1996.
.nMeelht a]K89 9,1yelraC[ noitatpa dlAanoitazinagr O,"yelraC ." slannA fo snoitarepOhcraeseR .
75: 25-47, 1998.
[ yelraC & ,eeL ]8991 neelhtaK .M yelraC & gnuS-uJ ,eeL cimanyD :snoitazinagrO
la nnooiittaaztipnaadgAr Oni a .h Cg.ntingenmanhoC r5i1vnE .pp( )592-762 ni leoJ muaB).dE(
secnavdA ni cigetartS tnemeganaM , loV ,51 yranilpicsiD stooR fo cigetartStnemeganaM
.hcr a.,e 8ssI9seA9eRJ1rP
,yelraC[ aluteirP & ,niL ]899 1neelhtaK .M ,lyeealhrca iC.MJ aluteirP dna gnai h,ZnnigLiseD"
susrev :noitingoC ehT noitcaretnI fo tnegA noitingoC dna lanoitazinagrO ngiseD no
lan o,ietcanzaimnraogfrrOeP " Journal of Artificial Societies and Social Simulation , 1(3) :1-19.
30 June 1998 at <http://www.soc.surrey.ac.uk/JASSS/, 1: paper 4, 1998.
[ yelraC & Svoboda, 1996] ,yelraC neelhtaK .M dna divaD .M ,adobovS ,6991gniledoM"
lanoitazinagrO noitatpadA sa a detalumiS gnilaennA ".ssecorP lacigoloicoS sdohteM dna
hcraeseR , 25(1): 138-168, 1996.
